AF's Way-Too-Late 2003 PFT Draft Grades
I missed the double AP, but we still gotta stack that AP so let's ruffle feathers. #LFG!
by Anthony Fernandez, June 28th, 2003
| PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | GRADE | | 1.01 |  | QB Carson Palmer | As a real life Bengals fan, I get this for Phil. Palmer was my favorite QB in the class. I just wonder if the gap between Palmer and the next three or four QBs wasn't that big. Especially when you consider what he might have been able to get for this pick. The haul that 1.3 went for would have been nice, and it could have net the Bengals a lot of ammo to rebuild, while also still getting them a good QB like Rex Grossman. For that reason, I couldn't go above a B+, but I did tack on the + because I'm a sentimental guy, and there's something special about drafting the QB you rooted for as a young kid. Also, there was no way in hell the Bengals were letting Palmer go to Pittsburgh, so maybe moving down just wasn't an option. But I know the Steelers would have loved to have Palmer instead of Hamdan. | B+ | | 1.02 |  | WR Anquan Boldin | Boldin got dragged on the Radio Show for silly stuff like low AWR? If I had a slight critique it's taking a guy who isn't a giant this high and isn't 99/99/99 (or close) - but Boldin even at 23 years old should be able to get very close to that. It's a pick I don't LOVE this high, but I also think it's much better than people claimed. Based off some comments on Discord, it sounds like Detroit might be an early contender to try and land ANOTHER Top 2 pick, and if chasing Eli Manning is the case, then Boldin makes a ton of sense because he's a guy you can progress from garbage time while the team sucks around him. | B | | 1.03 |  | QB Gibran Hamdan | The only thing preventing this being an F- for me is the fact that Wade is a legend and I trust him thoroughly to make this pick work. I said that Hamdan wouldn't make it out of the 1st round... but never in my dreams did I think he'd be a top 3 pick. Yes, his AWR is elite for a rookie - but there is still a lot of unknown for a guy with such low THA. Then you red flag his medicals with 70's INJ, and I just don't like it at 3. All that said, to compound it, they gave up 1.15 (where Hamdan may have still been on the clock) plus a FUTURE 1st (which is going to be high, because they're developing a rookie QB with 70-something THA and 60-something AWR) PLUS 27 year old Hines Ward and 23 year old Larry Foote... who both would likely be at LEAST 2nd round picks if they were in this draft. Your boy Justin Herr was so high that he traded Wade a player that isn't even on his team anymore (he was on mine), and I gave Wade a chance to pull the plug on this deal, but he did it anyway. It's a tough look for a GM that I love, a guy that literally is making this hobby POSSIBLE. I hope he's right about Hamdan, but it doensn't pass the smell test for me. | D+ | | 1.04 |  | WR Andre Johnson | This was a popular pick on the Radio Show, except for Will, who seemingly was gearing up to draft him. This is a very Brent pick - a talented, big WR with wheels. He checks on the boxes - even controversial ones like JMP, STR, and INJ (do they matter? I think so.) Overall I think this is a solid pick, but I can't give it the + because my brain just reserves that for Top 5 WRs that are also 6''4 or bigger. But he's pretty damn close. Nice pick. | A | | 1.05 |  | SS Troy Polumalu | Classic Apolo pick - new team, new league, same outcome. He just falls into these guys on draft day that are fReAk athletes that have potential to break positions. Polamalu was easily one of the best 3 players in this class. Apolo had a side chat about how he also was scouting S to move to CB in this class, but I feel pretty strongly that Troy will stay at S (either FS or SS). The reason? He's ELITE there. If you move him to CB, he's VERY good, but still a little undersized and just not as standout of a talent. And Apolo is all about putting position breaking players on the field, so I expect Troy to end up as a Hall of Fame FS for your Dallas Cowboys (maybe SS). Great pick for Apolo. It's high for a SS, but it's a special talent. | A+ | | 1.06 |  | RG Kris Dielman | Gotta go B here, because a G in the top 6 picks isn't sexy by any metric. I agree with chat last night that this pick LOOKS a lot better if he moves to OT, but it's all semantics on "draft grades." The long and short of it - I believe Will got the 2nd best OL in the draft class, and that ain't nothing. Especially for a guy that looks at OL in the 1st round like I look at Rhea Ripley (super hot, google it). If there's something stopping me from going to an A, and not just here, but as you'll see for Gross soon, I just think the OL class is VERY deep, and the guys at the top aren't THAT much better to justify top 10 picks. Fantastic talent, but ultimately the value dings it a bit. Kudos for still getting a great player on the fly after your guy got sniped - but if he stays at OG - it's an elite player at a position where every year Madden teams win SBs with scrubs. So how much better do the Cardinals get? | B | | 1.07 |  | HB Larry Johnson | Another value proposition here - where I think that Larry Johnson is a good player, but should a RB EVER go in the Top 10 in a league where you can pretty easily succeed with an old Vet? AC is in the midst of a full rebuild, and according to Discord there was an offer of multiple Dolphins 1sts for this. If that's the case, I would have loved to see that move. I also like McGahee a little more, but at the end of the day, the Texans still got a great player. I'm excited to see how he gets built up there for a team likely to be picking Top 10 again next year. | C+ | | 1.08 |  | CB Terence Newman | Chat liked this pick more than me. It reminded me of my SFL pick where I took almost an identical guy in the middle of the 1st round, and some people trashed it because he was 5'10". Now it should be noted that player had a VERY good career for me. I was happy with that pick. Would I have been as happy at 8 taking him? I dunno.. but I still think this player will be very good. Just a slight ding for taking a 5'10" guy in the top 10. | B | | 1.09 |  | QB Brooks Bollinger | The league is drafting for the Panthers, so I appreciate them taking a QB that nobody wanted. Even if he's good.... Brooks Bollinger is your QB? No thanks. All jokes aside, he's a fine player. He wasn't next on anyone's draft board, but that's better, because the rest of us were here drafting players and keep OUR dreams alive. Thanks PFT crew! | C+ | | 1.10 |  | LT Jordan Gross | Fine player. The best OT in the class. Is he THAT much better from the rest of the class to justify a top 10 pick? You can be the judge. For MY money, I ding it a letter grade because I like the player, I don't love him. I do love that he's 21. I also love that he's a good blocker already. But if I'm taking an OT in the top 10, I want him to be stronger and more athletic. But beggars can't be choosers. | B | | 1.11 |  | OLB E.J. Henderson | My favorite player in the draft. I did play around with the idea of moving up - I reached out to Minnesota to see about a jump from 20 to 15 in case Henderson kept falling. Ultimately, Rock said "MINE!" and ended my dreams. Just incredible value at 11 - and he had a good skew, too. I figured with him not being a Top 10 pick that his skew went down a bit, but alas, a nightmare to block joins the NFC. Great pick, Rock! Worthy of the rare A++ from the AF Draft grades. | A++ | | 1.12 |  | MLB Cie Grant | This was a solid pick, even if I'm surprised someone took a 24 year old in the Top 12. That said, the talent does NOT lie, and there aren't even any guarantees the league will be around for 6 seasons for him to see regression, so go get your stud now. I remember passing on 23 and 24 year olds I liked in GGL and look where that got me. Cie was my 2nd favorite guy in the class just off attributes - but I like Henderson as a MLB too, so you have the added bonus on Cie that you don't have to pay AP to move him. . | A- | | 1.13 |  | CB Dennis Weathersby | Will hated this, as did some others, but I like the player. The ONLY thing that makes this pick rough for me is what they had to give up to get here. Now, not trying to armchair QB it, because who knows if the draft falls differently, but the two guys Scott got are awesome. And Witten even looks like a guy that Bryan tormented SFL with. All that said, the PLAYER is good, and should have a good career. It's hard waiting to pick at the bottom of the first though, so I get it. | C+ | | 1.14 |  | QB Rex Grossman | Grossman is fine. Great value at 14, after all the QBs are falling like stones. We knew that GMs were pumping up the QBs to try and fill the Top 10 with them, but to see THIS many drop was kinda wild. That said, I think the Dolphins did a good job staying put, not moving up, and getting a solid QB. They can build around Grossman. | A | | 1.15 |  | CB Marcus Trufant | Vikes had already secured an A++ before they picked just based off the haul they got for 1.3 - but Trufant turned out to be a nice player, too. As stated at 1.3 - I think to get Ward, Foote, and this pick is incredible value for Minnesota. That's going to be a very good team in the NFC North. | A+ | | 1.16 |  | CB Charles Tillman | Is the ? grade a cop out? Yea, probably. But Peanut Tillman was one of the players with the wildest swings for grading in the draft. If he skews UP, he is a steal. If he skews DOWN, he's not a first (or maybe 2nd) round pick. So I just don't have enough information to give honest analysis. That said, the Chiefs do in fact need a CB, so that's good. There could also be potential to move to S, if the skew sucks. But I just don't have enough info at this time.UPDATE I had originally graded 1-16 back right after the draft. We have since found out Tillman's skew... and it was pretty, pretty good. The ACC was protected, and while the SPD went down, it is pretty good. The AWR went down, but overall this is a solid prospect for 6'2". The AWR is kinda scary for a 24 year old... but the CBs and QBs are so bad in the league, this might not be too bad. He will probably get cooked once a game, but they can handle it. | ? | | 1.17 |  | WR Kassim Osgood | Just absolutely love this pick. I didn’t have the private workout on him because I didn’t think there was any way he’d make it to 20… and then when he was still around I ALMOST triggered a workout as we got closer. I figured if he was still there, he MUST have skewed down. But much to GM Wintermute’s delight… he got even better. Osgood is a guy that is going to get to 90 SPD naturally, and 94 ACC naturally. Being 6’5”, it’s absolutely criminal that he lasted until 17 knowing how good BIG guys do in leagues like this. Also being 22 years old, Neal could essentially send this guy to camp ever year for almost a decade. So while I doubt he actually ends up 99SPD/99ACC at 6’5” like Randy Moss – it’s not completely out of the question, either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Neal get him at least up into the 95/95 threshold so that he has a nice post-30 regression career. Guys that big usually are useful well into their mid 80’s speed and quickness… so putting him in the mid 90’s before 30 is just guaranteeing extending this guy’s usefulness into “holy shit he has over a decade of 1000 yard seasons and could be setting records” category. Just incredible value, and I’m mad at myself that I didn’t PW him and move up to 15, which was available from Justin Herr on the night of. I -hate- picking after Neal in these drafts. | A++ | | 1.18 | | SS Yeremiah Bell | I had the PW on this guy, as he was who I HOPED skewed a little better to be my “move to CB” project. Both guys were higher on my board for CB than any of the remaining CBs at this point. It looks like Bell is going to be staying at SS, which is fine. His SPD/AGI/ACC had potential to be really exciting with a good skew. Turns out he stayed around where he was, which is fine (especially at SS), but I was going to need him to get faster to give up the extra 2 inches Hamlin had (that’s what she said). Bell at 6’ is still very solid and should have a good career. He’s a year younger than Hamlin and less injury prone… so he has advantages. All things considered, I’m very grateful that Felipe pulled the trigger on Bell and not Hamlin, if he was looking secondary. | A- | | 1.19 |  | HB Willis McGahee | I like Willis best in the class, but it was close. McGahee is no blazer… but at 235lbs and 94 BTK, he’s the kind of bruiser that does well in Madden. Honestly, to get him this late to pair with a generational QB like Tom Brady is borderline unfair. I remember GM Rob Stanley from way back, but he’s been crushing it since coming back seemingly from the dead. I almost need him and Apolo to both join the PFT Radio Show and talk at the same time to make sure it’s not the same person like an episode of Scooby Doo. McGahee is 23, so he will get close to 90 SPD, which is kind of where I want my guys to protect them into regression… but McGahee is already halfway to 1000 yards at the quarter mark of the season, so maybe he doesn’t even need it. Meanwhile, my blazer Clinton Portis is struggling to get 3 yards a carry. Well played, Mr. (checks notes) Stanley. Well played.
| A | | 1.20 |  | CB/S Ken Hamlin | So I just spoke about Hamlin some in the Dolphins pick caption, but I loved this player. I really NEEDED a CB in this draft, since the QB selection was picked over, and the run on CBs hit in the teens and didn’t leave me much at that position. So while a move from SS (the strongest position in the class IMO) was the play – I knew it would be expensive and would be down the line (hence why I’m writing articles). Hamlin ended up skewing down in AGI and ACC 92/92 from 94/95, but the SPD stayed at 88, which was the only thing that would have got him not drafted by me. SPD will go to 89 naturally next year, and I’ll send him to camp to get him to a respectable 90 for his age 24 season. From there, I’ll likely send him at least until he’s 95 SPD/99 ACC at 6’2”, which is all you can ask. As an added bonus, he also skewed UP in STR (74 to 82), UP in TAK (70 to 74), and UP in CTH (64 to 65). Those were all huge for teams looking to keep him at SS, but they drew my interest for a CB as well. In the minor red flag department, his INJ went down from 78 to 70, his AWR went from 66 to 62, and his JUMP went from 99 to 94. All of which are irritating, but still leagues ahead of what I had to pick from with the actual CBs in the class. Hamlin did not have the 150k AP to move by the preseason, which was a concern playing him out of position and taking the AWR hit. But his stats haven’t indicated much of a problem. He has 27 tackles, 3 TFL, 8 deflections, and only 11 catches allowed. He gives up one big catch a game, it appears. Not ideal, but also not any worse than any other rookie CB I’ve ever had to groom – especially playing out of position. In fact, Hamlin got such good progression at SS (almost 3 points) because of all his tackles, I am tempted to leave him at SS until the playoffs before initiating the position change. That might give him a more friendly progression than my CBs are getting (barely 1 point each). The trade off is the OOP AWR hit until then, but long-term I think it might be the play. All I know is that I need the 150k AP and him moved before the offseason, because the rookie progression for CBs +1 SPD, +1 STR, +1 AGI, +1 CTH, +1 TAK, and +2 ACC. The rookie progression for SSs is +1 SPD, +1 STR, +1 AGI, +1 ACC, +1 CTH, +2 TAK. Pretty similar, but would much rather get that extra ACC instead of the extra TAK. So while this has been a frustrating year with no QB, we are looking at trotting out a 24 year old CB next year that is 6’2”, 90 SPD, 93 AGI, 95 ACC, 75 TAK, 83 STR, and at least 67 AWR. Assuming he keeps putting up similar stats playing OOP at SS, let’s conservatively say he finishes with 2.5 pts at the next two progression periods. That would actually start him at 72 AWR next year after training camp and rookie progression. And then he’s poised to keep getting the +1 SPD, +1 ACC, +1 AWR for at least 5 more years. That’s good value at the 20th pick in the draft. Not to mention, his STR/TAK stats put him a rare position to move BACK to SS when he gets to 32ish years old and could be one of the best Safeties in the league. It sucks to not have a QB to select, but this will do as a consolation prize. I always preferred chess to checkers, even though checkers was my moms favorite game growing up.
| A+ | | 1.21 |  | C Ryan Pontbriand | People went ape shit for this pick during the draft and I kind of didn’t know why. I was both elated with my own pick, as well as preparing PWs for my next pick coming up very soon at 1.24, and I also didn’t scout any Cs at all since I traded for and acquired stud young C Andre Gurode prior to the draft. Comparing the two, Gurode is a year older, about 60lbs heavier (not sure that matters), two inches taller, +7 AGI, +5 ACC, -9 SPD, -5 STR, -1 PBK, -4 RBK, +13 INJ, +3 AWR. That’s pretty similar, but I’d say that I’m happier with Gurode. I’d also say that’s still pretty great value here at 21. I got Gurode (and OG Ross Tucker, from Tuck’s spreads on Twitter) for essentially my future 2nd. Going into the season with no QB, I was accepting of the fact that would be a Top 10 pick. So that means while I concede Pontbriand is a better prospect than Gurode at this juncture (especially considering he has rookie progression still to come), for it to work on a value front for me I’d need to trade up from ~2.6 to get up to 1.21! That’s a pretty expensive jump up, plus I don’t get the bonus starter in G Ross Tucker (who WILL eat a resign). Also worth noting that Pontbriand skewed DOWN in RBK and a few other places, so he could have been even better. All things considered, I’m happy with the route I took at the position, but it’s impossible to deny the value of this pick at 21… even with Ryan already being 24 years old. That’s about as solid of a B that you can get, and almost trending towards an A-. | B+ | | 1.22 |  | DT Kenny Peterson | I didn’t love this pick, to say the least. Peterson wasn’t at the top of my DT board (Anthony Adams was, who went 2.11 to the Seahawks). Peterson, who didn’t look like a 1st round pick on the night of the draft actually skewed down even further, albeit a marginal amount. So it’s not like he magically went up and that’s why I didn’t love the pick because I didn’t have all the info. He is 21, so that’s nice, and the Jets will have a big window to make him appear more like a top 22 pick. Good size at 6’3” and 300 lbs. But 70 ACC, 72 SPD, 83 STR, and 74 TAK is just not enough to get me to spend a 1st. Hell, I bet they could have traded this pick for a top 10 DT in the league. Granted, if you fit the system for DTs with 70+ SPD, 70+ ACC, and 83 STR – it’s a short list of 6 guys like La’Roi Glover, Warren Sapp, and Corey Simon. But those guys are all over 80 ACC, and pushing 90 STR. I hate to trash a pick this bad, I just don’t love the fit. For comparison sake, I drafted two DTs in the 4th round, and while the SPD is low 60s on both, the STR is 99 and 88, so both will naturally get into respectable STR territory with similar size and age. I hope I’m wrong and Peterson has a wonderful career. | D- | | 1.23 | | WR Brandon Lloyd | Lloyd had a slight skew down, but ultimately remains a very solid prospect this late. This offense needed juice around Brady, and GM Stanley did a wonderful job doing just that. Between McGahee and Lloyd, we could be looking at a Boston version of the triplets, who will cause the league headaches for years to come. Ultimately, I think the Pats will want to invest in the Offensive Line to keep Brady upright for the next decade, but with the state of their WRs it was wise to add one here. | A- | | 1.24 | | MLB Antwan Peek | Oh look, I'm back on the clock. Peek went slightly down in AGI, but just about everything else skewed up. +2 SPD (89) being the most notable, but his ACC staying at 82 is very nice. We already have MLB Al Wilson who we just resigned long term, but we had always planned to play the 34 - which was a scary proposition with how shit our LBs were outside of Wilson. Thankfully we were able to sign (overpay) a couple prospects in Free Agency, and then the addition of Peek makes this one of our more "done" units on the team. Peek is a strong bet to inherit quite a few training camps to flush him out, and being low 70s OVR means we won't have to bank progression points out of fear or him going over 83 OVR before he can claim sophomore progression. Ultimately not a perfect prospect, but great value at 24 overall. Anytime you can solidify a CB and MLB position in your first draft, you have done something right. We still have a few glaring holes, but thankfully some promising late draft picks might have sped our rebuild up a tiny bit. Still need a QB though, and 2 early wins (which are nice) means we may be a "stockpile future picks next offseason to draft Aaron Rodgers" team. | A- | | 1.25 |  | LT Jon Stinchcomb | This is a fantastic pick for Romeo. This WAS a deep OL draft, so I'd add the "-" for that, as in a draft that deep I might want an OL in the 1st with a little more unique ACC/SPD/STR. But Stinchcomb is a polished blocker and is perfect adequate at everything. With some love, he'll be very good. | A- | | 1.26 |  | LE Ty Warren | No reason to beat a dead horse here. The 49ers have one of my favorite GMs, this was just a bad pick. Warren looks more like a DT than a DE, but his low STR almost makes that impossible. Ironically, Brady might be spiteful enough to put this guy through a LOT of TC and turn him into a potential stud. He can get there with the SPD/ACC, but the low STR may keep him from ever being exceptional, even with work. | F | | 1.27 |  | TE Jason Witten | Love this pick. We have NO tight end in Denver, so this was a guy I was hopeful might drop a little further. He was for sure in play at 24 if Peek wasn't there. I didn't have the PW on Witten, but I would have if my guy was gone. With these SPD/ACC numbers and this size, he should be playing WR3, or perhaps even a move to WR in a few years after some progression. He's going to be a stud. | A+ | | 1.28 | | SS Hanik Milligan | Milligan is a stud. He was the another player I was looking at as a potential move to CB. Ultimately the drop to 85 took him off my board as a CB, but that is PLENTY good to make a fine SS, where he'll play in DC. Just a fantastic pick, and when you consider the trade deal they got to move down, it's simply some of the best work Scott has done since winning a Super Bowl. | A+ | | 1.29 | | WR Doug Gabriel | Not a ton to say about this pick. For me, Gabriel is just going to take TOO much work to even get to average for what I look for in a WR. Great size, but that 84 ACC is brutal... even with him getting to 87 naturally. For my taste, he'd need at least 8 training camps. But his initial stats are ok, so maybe it won't matter. I think Felipe had a wonderful draft, this was just one pick I didn't care for. | D+ | | 1.30(32) | | QB Chris Simms | I had these two prospects (Simms and Romo) graded very similarly. I confess I liked Simms a little more than Romo, but I also have a Bucs fan bias so I'm partial to our old QB Simms. All that said, Apolo missing a pick is so uncharacteristic that I had to toss him a "-" on this. I also have some serious questions on if Simms is in the long term plans for Dallas - other than maybe a future trade chip when this team ends up with Eli Manning just to spite Romeo. | B- | | 1.31(30) | | QB Tony Romo | As mentioned above, Romo will have a better grade because Romeo has a wonderful 40 time and got up to the podium quicker, but ultimately I do like Simms a little better. It's very close though, and I think Romo has a very solid career here in PFT. If the Giants season doesn't turn around soon, don't be surprised to see this team try to position themselves for Eli. Sure, they spent a 1st on Romo, but they can recoup that in a trade next year to get the fan favorite Manning. | B | | 1.32(31) |  | QB Doug Ragone | Man, whoever had the OVER SIX QBS DRAFTED bet on DraftKings just lucked out with THREE QBs to end the 1st! Ragone is not someone I had ranked as a 1st round QB, but considering how the round played out, you can't blame anyone for taking a QB. My only concern is that the Bucs are a team that are coming off a Super Bowl win, and have a TON of veterans. You almost wonder if with Brad Johnson in his twilight, perhaps it would have been better to take an impact player that could help challenge for another Super Bowl, and save taking a QB for a future draft. Especially if you're not in love with the prospect, which I am not. I think he'll be fine and trust GM Coyle to develop him - but if it were me I'd probably have added a defensive stud like OLB Victor Hobson to keep the rich defensive history in Tampa going. Unfortunately, he's a Saint... so Tampa will have to deal with him for years to come. Surprised if it was a QB it wasn't our Super Bowl winning OC Byron Leftwich. | C |
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