Offensive Playbook Selection: You Shall Not Pass or Maybe You Should
I decided to take a look at the offensive playbook selection in what is usually a very important week 16. This year’s week 16 did not disappoint as there were some very close, exciting games that could or should have decided some of this year’s playoff seeding. This is of course, assuming the game’s engine gets the teams, seedings and tie breakers correct. Some of these nail biters this week included the Bills and Giants, the Titans and Jets, the Raiders and Jags, the Seahawks and Ravens, the 48’ers and Bucs, the Dolphins and Patriots as well as the Packers and Bears.
Offensive playbook selection, by no surprise was dominated by the Rams (passing) or Broncos (running). These two books were chosen for a combined 60% of teams.
The Broncos book was used by 12 teams (38% of the time). Those teams included the Giants, Panthers, Buc, Jags, Texans, Seahawks, 49’ers, Vikings, Chargers, Cardinals, Jets and Raiders. (I included the Raiders because that is what the Film Room said but it does not look like the Film Room was update since our friend Tim Miller came back. For this article I went with what the Film Room said.) The Broncos book had 7 wins in week 16 with the winning teams being the Panthers, 49’ers, Vikings, Chargers, Cardinals and Raiders. (Again, with the Raider, see the previously mention Film Room comment.) This comes up to a winning percentage of 58%. If week 16 ended the season and we began the playoffs this week four playoff team (25%)s, the Panthers, 49’ers, Vikings and Raiders would have used the Broncos book. Three of those teams won in week 16 with those teams being the Panthers, 49’ers, Vikings and Raiders. That comes out to great 75% winning percentage.
The Rams book was used by 7 teams (22% of the time). Those teams included the Patriots, Bills, Packers, Bears, Colts, Broncos and Rams. The Rams book had 5 wins in week 16 with the winning teams being the Patriots, Bills, Packers, Colts and Rams. This comes up to a winning percentage of 71%. If week 16 ended the season and we began the playoffs this week five playoff teams (41%), the Patriots, Bills, Packers, Colts and Rams would have used the Rams book. All five of those teams won in week 16 for a perfect 100% winning percentage.
While a 75% winning percentage for playoff teams using the Broncos book in week 16 sounded impressive at first, it is clearly less than the perfect 100% winning percentage with the Rams book. I think it is very important to point out all five playoff teams who used the Rams playbook in week 16 all had elite level veteran QB’s: Tom Brady for the Patriots, Drew Bledsoe for the Bills, Brett Favre for the Packers, Peyton Manning for the Cots and Kurt Warner for the Rams. Veteran QB’s seem to be worth their weight in gold in the PTF and perhaps one can take away the idea of a lesser quality and less experienced QB may have a harder time utilizing the Rams playbook.
With all of this being said; what book are you choosing to roll with in the playoffs if you were to GM a team in the playoffs?
* I did this on break at work so please excuse me if my quotes %’s are off a bit.
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