1-16 Mock| PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | | 1.01 |  | QB Philip Rivers | History repeats itself. The only way it makes sense for the Chargers to trade Drew Brees is if they have their eyes set on another young QB to develop. Brees at age 25 is 83 AWR, while rookie Eli Manning has 66 AWR at age 24 and Ben Roethlisberger has 63 AWR at age 25. It only makes sense (to me) if they draft the 22-year-old Rivers at his 64 AWR. In 3 years he could be where Brees is today. | | 1.02 |  | QB Eli Manning | QB Jake Plummer is at the regression threshold and he wasn't good before reaching his age 30 season. The Cardinals ran with Josh McCown under center last year and he finished with a 43.6 completion %, 11 TDs, 16 INTs, 44 sacks and a 55.3 QB Rating. Eli Manning is better than McCown today, and he will progress, especially if he plays during his rookie season. It's the most important position and I don't think GM Will Cook believes McCown is the long-term answer. | | 1.03 |  | QB Ben Roethlisberger | Last year's 3rd round pick Kyle Boller was the starter for Detroit and finished with 40.19 completion %, 19 TDs, 18 INTs, 52 sacks and a QB rating of 62.2. Like Arizona, I don't think GM Rodany Mendez really believes in Boller, he just didn't have anybody better. Roethlisberger is better, but perhaps some red flags with his durability and that 38 INJ rating. Injuries are obviously random, but players with a lower INJ are assumed to be at greater risk of sustaining an injury. It's worth the risk, holding out another year hoping to land Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 draft isn't promising.
| | 1.04 |  | QB Cody Pickett | David Carr would be a decent backup but by the time he develops he will be pushing regression. I think Houston has to take the 4th QB off the board here and then look at moving on from David Carr and that bloated contract. Pickett is an interesting prospect because he's only 21-years-old. While he isn't as talented as the other 3 taken ahead of him, he will have more years played before regression sets in.
| | 1.05 |  | FS Sean Taylor | The Browns missed out on free agency and a chance to obtain a starting QB this year. They're going to have to run it back with Tim Couch. There are no other QBs in the class that are worth selecting at 5th overall. Sean Taylor is, in my opinion, the best player in this draft, hands down. He has size, strength, athleticism and at only age 22. He will be a stud for a decade.
| | 1.06 |  | WR Larry Fitzgerald | The Giants drafted Tony Romo last year and while he's only 60 AWR and 81 THA, he's still only age 22. I think they ride it out with the young kid. You can make a case for a lot of players moving forward. This high in the draft, if not taking a QB, I'm looking at impact positions like WR, DE, CB and HB. While Fitzgerald doesn't have the speed you may typically see in a WR drafted this high, he is very polished and will make Romo's job a bit easier.
| | 1.07 |  | WR Roy Williams | The Bengals are cash strapped. They have the 22-year-old Carson Palmer to build around and now they need to give him some weapons. They acquired HB Michael Bennett and while he isn't my cup of tea I think he's the featured back for the team this year. Williams is similar to Fitzgerald, a sure handed big bodied WR who can be a help develop a young QB.
| | 1.08 |  | CB Keith Smith | I think GM Norbert Huszti traded up to get a QB but after they went 1-4 he is going to have to adjust his plans. I don't see a QB worth taking in the top 10 after those 4 guys go, so now it's looking for an impact player. I think Jonathan Vilma is a dude, but with Ray Lewis on the team it feels like a waste. A lot of GMs prefer height, but 5'11" isn't too shabby. Keith Smith is also 22-years-old and 95 SPD, 99 AGI and 96 ACC! Stud.
| | 1.09 |  | CB DeAngelo Hall | The Panthers were in the market for a CB and there are a few good ones so it comes down to a matter of preference. Like Smith, he's an athletic freak at 99 AGI and 99 ACC. He's only 21-years-old and for a team that is rebuilding that should catch the eye of GM Daren Roberts. | | 1.10 |  | MLB Jonathan Vilma | After trading away CB Sam Madison, I think the Dolphins have to look to the draft to find his replacement after coming up empty in FA, but how do you pass on Vilma? I think he's the 2nd most talented player in this draft at 89 SPD, 91 STR, 66 AWR, 85 ACC and a ridiculous 99 TAK as a rookie. CB may be a big need but talent prevails here.
| | 1.11 |  | HB Chris Perry | I was tempted to go with an OLB here, but as the Steelers continue to develop their QB the easiest thing to do to help that is have a good run game. The STR and BTK is a bit too low for me, but 6'0", 224lbs, 95 SPD, 92 AGI, 96 ACC is real nice. The STR could skew up, and the BTK is something that can be progressed. He has the potential to be a stud. The only other HB that I would look at would be Michael Turner in hopes of a skew up.
| | 1.12 |  | WR Bernard Berrian | The Bucs are aging at WR and Berrian provides something that they don't have, speed. He's 6'1", 99 SPD, 94 AGI, 96 ACC. Seems like a slam dunk, right? His 57 CTH and sub 50 INJ and TGH ratings are going to scare some teams off. But if he stays healthy and develops those hands, stud. | | 1.13 |  | WR Reggie Williams | Another big bodied WR is off the board, giving QB Byron Leftwich a legitimate target. Williams is 22-years-old, 6'4" with 90 SPD, 60 AWR, 93 AGI, 86 ACC, 76 CTH and 92 JMP. He has 1,000 receiver potential and even beyond that if he skews up and progresses. The Chiefs could go in a lot of directions here, but QB development is the most important thing and finding a guy that can make some plays for the young signal caller may be the decision here.
| | 1.14 |  | CB Nathan Vasher | There are some holes on the team that give the Jets some flexibility here. It's a double-edged sword, you don't want many holes but at the same time you aren't boxed into a position where you have to reach for a position. Vasher is 97 SPD, 56 AWR, 91 AGI, 94 ACC. 31-year-old Donnie Abraham is 87 SPD while former 7th rounder Terrence McGee is 5'9", 88 SPD and still raw. Vasher would vault to the top of the depth chart for the Jets.
| | 1.15 |  | LOLB Charlie Anderson | The Cowboys GM Apolo Shapiro is tough to predict, but he does like finding unicorn-type players, even if it's a player that will eventually move positions. Charlie Anderson is that kind of guy. He could easily be a starting OLB on a team that only has 1 OLB at the moment, or he could play out of position at DE. At 87 SPD, 90 STR, 61 AWR, 72 AGI, 85 ACC, he certainly could do both. He could not officially be moved to DE through the Item Shop as he is listed at 250lbs and the minimum to move to the DL is 255lbs.
| | 1.16 | | CB Jeremy LeSueur | I think the Texans would like to get a weapon for their new QB but there are some question marks with some of the guys left. Their secondary could use some help and I think LeSueur is a strong prospect with his only knock being age 24. At 6'0", 91 SPD, 65 AWR, 98 AGI, 96 ACC he's even a good tackler with 78 TAK. Ideally you want a younger guy, but bigger bodied guys can handle regression a bit better than the shorter guys.
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