AF's 2004 PFT 1st Round Mock Draft (1-16)
Don't go to sleep or you'll miss two more Top 10 picks being swapped!
by Anthony Fernandez, October 16th, 2004
| PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | | 1.01 |  | CB/FS Sean Taylor | So what a trade for the #1 pick, huh? The worst 1.1 trade in Madden League history? Certainly the worst BEFORE the fact - you might be able to go through and see some that TURNED OUT to be worse. But to move down for a high 4th is insane. Or is it? If you ask me, this is the kind of deal that ONLY happens if both GMs have a handshake agreement on who is going 1.1 - and it's NOT the target of Breck at 2. That's the ONLY way this trade works. And while Breck is a wild card and you never truly know how he'll feel when the winds blow, he's been pretty adamant that Eli is his guy. So with that in mind, it tells me this can't be Eli. Or Breck has been playing us. Now I know for a fact that Will did not have Eli as the #1 ranked QB, but you can also check public record where he's been vocal about that. There's an outside chance this pick is Rivers - he's THE QB in this class to take and build around. But I think Will - the same guy that for years and years has went OL in Top 15 picks, even though it's not sexy but because it's the best VALUE - will go BPA here. And frankly, Sean Taylor is THE best player in this class, and the best player in many classes that I've seen. Obviously pre-skew, but to be 6'2" with the potential to be 99/99/99 is insane. He'd be my pick at 1, and he'd be moved to CB before the draft ends. All that said, maybe the allure of the 1 of 1 OG Locklear could intrigue Will? He's the kind of player that sometimes gets hidden in a draft class because there is SO much you can do with him... but none of it is easy or traditional. Could he move to TE? Does he go to OT? We've frankly never seen a guy like that. And the Mendez brothers sniffed that shit out right away and put him on blast as a Top 10 pick, so maybe Will panicked and had to move up ahead of Ro and Rod (who ironically will be IN Denver with Will this weekend drafting live) to grab him? A lot of possibilities. But he wouldn't have had to move ahead of Breck for him. I frankly took him off my board because of the 1 INJ rating... but Will IS the Godfather of the crazy INJ ratings, so perhaps he doesn't think they truly matter, and like a true leader he's going to kick off the golden age of GLASS by taking the poster child for "does any of this shit we do truly matter?" with a 1 INJ rating #1 overall pick? Time will tell, but the smart money is still on Sean Taylor. | | 1.02 |  | QB Eli Manning | I personally like Rivers better because the AGE, but Eli makes a ton of sense. Breck has been insistent that this was his guy, and he only takes that "haul" of picks from Will if he KNOWS his guy is still going to be around. So whether Will takes Taylor, Rivers, Locklear, or someone else - I still think Breck took a 4th to move down one spot (and get a slightly better contract) on the guy he (says) he wanted all along - Eli Manning. The infamous alternate world Eli Manning Chargers timeline is upon us. He won two Super Bowls in NY. He'll probably win at least one in San Diego. | | 1.03 |  | QB Philip Rivers | How lucky are Rod and the Lions?? Sitting at 3 had to be THE most uncomfortable position in the entire draft, especially after the Big Ben doctor reports got leaked. It was a two-elite QB draft - and you've got the 3rd chair. But thanks to the miracle of time and boredom, picks 1 and 2 swapped hands more times than Kim Kardashian, and it looks like MAYBE one of the top two QBs will be available. In fact, Rivers is my #1 QB in the class. That is quite the get, if it plays out like that. Ironically, if Will goes QB (like he very well could), the Lions STILL get Taylor, the best player in the draft. Great week for everyone in Detroit except Brian Branch. | | 1.04 |  | MLB Jonathan Vilma | No surprise here, but the Texans grab the last of the "big 4" players in this draft. Vilma has been mocked Top 4 over and over and over. There MUST be something nice in his skew, because frankly I think this is a risky Top 4 pick. MLBs would fall, GOOD MLBs, into the 2nd (or 3rd) round in SFL all the time. Now that league had an influx of good MLB and it was less wiggle room to rotate guys from OLB-MLB there than here - but Vilma is still 230lbs and 6'1". There's also a CHANCE that he ends up sub 80s in SPD and ACC instead of low 90s. At 23 years old, I like his potential to be regression proof a little less than if he was 21 years old. He's a very polished plug and play guy, and for that reason there is no way to give this pick anything less than a B that could become an A+, and maybe that appeals to AC. I think from experience he WANTS the approval of guys liking his move, so the fact everyone has mocked Vilma here makes it a lock in my eyes. But for my money? I'd be trading down a few spots in the Top 10 to gain assets and squeeze the guys who moved up for QBs but didn't quite get high enough. Otherwise, I'd have just stayed at 1 and taken QB Rivers. Trading down is always a good option - but IMO this was always a BIG THREE class, not a BIG FOUR class. So I'd have dropped no lower than 3, or I'd be sliding all the way down and getting as many 1sts and 2nds as I could collect this year and next. | | 1.05 |  | QB Cody Pickett | Here's a curveball. Everyone seems to have Fitzgerald penciled in here, and maybe I'm way wrong, but I just needed to see more from that PW to make him a Top 5 pick. He's good, and he's surely a Top 10 pick, but he's a few years away from being a dominant player and he's already 23 years old. WR Wilford is a terrifying prospect because of his INJ rating, but even he clears Fitzgerald in just about every other category except CTH, which multiple "experts" have come out this week to vouch it doesn't matter. And running some quick informal research, my guy WR Ashley Lelie has pretty bad CTH, and he had about as many drops as stud WRs across the league. So maybe it doesn't matter much. Speaking of Lelie, if Fitz is the 5th best player in this class, what is Lelie worth? He's 24 years old, so only a year older. He's the same height (6'3") - he's already 94 SPD, 93 AGI, 93 ACC - so clears Fitz in all those unless that PW is AMAZING (it's not). And he's 72 CTH, which isn't Fitz level, but it's more than most of the rookies. Plus 80 INJ. Now, I don't think I'd trade Lelie, because I doubt anyone would offer a Top 10 pick. Meanwhile, all these mocks have teams taking WRs that are INFERIOR to Lelie. Just my .02! All that said, I think Bill avoids being manipulated here by popular opinion and instad crafts their OWN narrative. When you're picking in the Top 5, you HAVE to take a guy that changes the trajectory of your franchise. That is CBs, QBs, and 6'4" 99/99 WRs. There are a number of CBs I like a lot in this class, but those would be on a slight trade down, and I think we see a BIG run on CBs in the teens. There is only one WR that is 6'4" 99/99, so if it's WR, you have to gamble on Wilford. But 8 INJ is too big a risk for a guy like me - but maybe Bill is level headed enough to know that it's just a game and if he gets hurt he gets hurt. In that case, pull the trigger. But for me, crossing off CB and WR here, that only leaves QB. And there is one that looks like a franchise guy Pre-Skew, Cody Pickett. He's 21 years old, which jumps out more and more with these old ass QBs coming out. He's 67 INJ, which isn't ideal, but it clears Big Ben. He's 93 THP, so he'll be 99 THP before he regresses. He's 63 AWR, which is actually respectable and very capable to get into the 90s in first 3-4 seasons. Then you push that THA into the 90s and you have a franchise QB by 26 years old, if he's healthy and getting progression. He's also big at 6'4", which some GMs don't think matters, but I'm convinced it does. He's the Mike Glennon prospect in this class - and while Mike Glennon was NOT a Top 5 pick - that was in a league where most teams had QBs and there wasn't such a dire need for them. Here? Half the teams have shit at QB, and will have shit at QB for the foreseeable future. So get your rookie NOW, with years left on your contract, develop him, get another Top 10 pick next year, and keep building your team to compete when McNabb begins regressing. | | 1.06 |  | OG Sean Locklear | I'd have bet money before the draft that NY was staying put and taking Eli Manning - but Ro seems content with Ro-mo. I actually don't hate the approach, but as a Bucs homer, I'd have a hard time passing on such a clear chance to mirror and relive history here if it were MY team. Ro has resolve, and he'll instead get this freak athlete that frankly is still in play to go 1 overall. Not sure where he ends up playing, but Romeo is crafty enough that he'll find a good use for him. I also think this is a prime spot for a trade down. | | 1.07 |  | WR Larry Fitzgerald | For all the reasons I don't support taking Fitz in the Top 10, please see the Browns pick. So why does he go two picks later? I just still think it's too early for a CB, and the Bengals actually have a good OL. Former 1.1 pick Carson Palmer is going to need some weapons, and Fitz is polished enough that I could see the allure of taking a guy ready to contribute NOW and help his QB develop. That said, Fitz is not the most talented WR in the class, but the Mellon family seems (rightfully) OUT on the low INJ players, as am I. So for that reason, Fitz makes sense here. I don't love the pick, because again - I think WR Lelie is better than any of the WRs being mocked Top 10 and I legit got offers of 2nd round picks this offseason for Lelie. But the draft is like shopping for cars. It's always sexier with a ribbon on it and a "new car" sticker. Fitz will develop into someone worthy of this pick. | | 1.08 |  | QB Ben Roethlisbergr | The Ravens could go a LOT of directions here - but I think someone pulls the trigger on Roethlisbergr in the Top 10. The Steelers gave up a LOT to get QB Hamdan last year only to turn around and give up the 11th pick AND him to get 28 year old McNabb this year. But other than that, nobody in the division has a QB. So why not go young now and get the pain out of the way? Big Ben is old and has shitty INJ, but everything else is ideal for a QB. Can a Ravens fan stomach rooting for Big Ben? Lots of questions marks. I frankly think the Ravens are shocked Pickett is gone and panic. Consider this the warning! | | 1.09 |  | WR Reggie Williams | Going just off the draft board they posted in their team news, you'd think this was Williams. Unless the list wasn't in order... but they have Manning, then Rivers, then Taylor, then Vilma... etc. The highest guy left is ROY Williams. So maybe he's the pick. So Roy Williams it is! Or is it? I think they take Reggie Williams. I know for sure they're taking WR R. Williams. One of them. | | 1.10 |  | OT Tyson Clabo | I heard the Dolphins may ONLY draft OL in this class. Clabo is the best left, even if this is hella high for an OT that is just really good and not elite. Reminds me of the guy the Ravens took last year at 10, who I thought was really good (just not elite). And Gross was better than Clabo. | | 1.11 |  | WR Ernest Wilford | So the Eagles will be rebuilding with youngster QB Hamdan, so why not get a young WR with freak stats to go with? Certainly the WR with the most potential in the class, but I don't EVER see him finishing a season. But while he's healthy, he could be fun. I think Gary is just crazy enough to take a chance. Risky, but could pay off. I'm excited to see how it plays out, and I'm glad he's in the NFC - but not a move that I would ever be able to make. Just TOO risky. But they got GREAT value for McNabb, and have their QB of the future, so why not? | | 1.12 |  | OLB Gilbert Gardner | The Buccaneers traded their 1st Round Pick QB from last year (albeit the 32nd pick), and have added Bledsoe. They clearly see an aging Bucs roster and want to try and win NOW before they have to completely implode and start over. That said, I see a lot of OTs mocked here, but with how many vets this team has, I'd almost patch this OL together with Vet Min Exempt high OVR veterans and trade for guys teams are dumping on draft day. I'd get a defensive player that could make a splash, and I think Gardner could be that guy. He's undersized, but the 93 SPD and 92 ACC with 80 STR is incredible. Could this be Tampa's next Derrick Brooks... but before Lavonte David arrives? They currently have nothing at the position. | | 1.13 |  | OG Scott Wells | The goal for the Chiefs has to be protecting Byron Leftwich, who proved himself quite capable last year. Wells is a great plug and play pick. Currently they have Keydrick Vincent, who I was actually bidding against them on in FA. He could bump over to RG and play, if the team wanted to go a flashier route and grab a weapon for Byron Leftwich. Still some intriguing WRs on the board, and we're getting to the point in the draft where it may be worth a gamble. | | 1.14 |  | WR Michael Clayton | I was really tempted to take a cornerback here, but Clayton may be too tempting for someone who likes tall receivers. There are some good athletes in this class and he should be a starter on day one in the Big Apple. Don't rule out CB, LB, or even DT here. | | 1.15 |  | C Don Muhlbach | An absolute mauler with incredible quickness. I don't personally think Apolo values this POSITION this high, and I have an idea of who he would take if the draft played like this, but I'd never blow up my buddy's spot. So I'm just plugging in the BPA at a position of need. Mulbach is going to be an absolute stud. | | 1.16 | | CB DeAngelo Hall | How the hell have CBs lasted this long? I was critical of Vilma at 4, but if they walk out of this draft with THESE two players, that's a win for a franchise that could very easily tank for Aaron Rodgers next year. Hard to argue with the strategy. |
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