I’ll try a new writing style, overall I try to structure my articles and after some time I end up burned, so I’ll just start writing, and hopefully it is an enjoyable to read content.
Injuries
Ok, so this is what I’m more interested to watch, this was the main topic of the off-season and logically now will be the time to see the results, I ran 4-5 sims and the results were terrible with 1 inj- 1 tgh, also were very bad with 10-10, I’m not entirely sure how much it change in numbers around 20+ or in some position as OL. As example of the results of my sims, in 1 game by half all the QB on the depth chart were injured by half, most of them with ugly injuries, in another game a 4 WR ended injured, in another 1 of them suffered a broken vertebrae. I think we will see an ending career injury.
I was tempted to draft one of those studs, hell, I was thinking to draft WR Ernest Wilford at 1.15, but I just think long time was a bad idea, not to mention most of the Glass Studs were also underdeveloped, so not only is a gamble on inj/tgh but also in progressables.
My prediction is that we will see an historical high on injuries, personally Im not big fan of the potential side effects of this class, affecting other areas as fit the system, trades
This is not meant to be a criticism to Will or the league, I just like sharing my thoughts, it can also have beneficial effects as a deeper test of the attribute, I had a difference of opinion with Bryan during off-season, and I’ve changed my mind partially, now I do consider INJ and TGH do work as should, yet the difference between lets say 80 and 99 are important but not as important as with these players. During pre-draft I wanted to do a deeper analysis with my analogy, yeah I like analogies, so will just do it here:
I’ll use F1 but can use any other motosport or even a regular car, maybe can be Cars and lighting mcqueen.
For this analogy, the wheels wills be inj/tgh ratings, if your car has new tires at 99/99, the possibilities on accident are less, while the tires wore down, or on this case the attribute decrease the possibilities of an accident increase. Now… Some positions are like circuits, imagine being a QB is like driving on the worst court possible, with ton of accidents and high risk possibility even with new tires, while OL, is like driving on the best asphalt, with minimal accidents.
Once assume the tires risk, now it’s a situation of the car. Would I drive an Alpine (worst car) just because it has new tyres? I wouldn’t if a player is bad, having high INJ/TGH won’t change much the value, but would i drive a Red Bull with the worst tires? Personally no, and that’s how I see much of this class, going back to Cars Movie, much of those players are the lighting McQueen without pit stop, the % of an accident is just too big!
Who worth the risk?
If will take a risk, there were some players and some spots where I think the low inj was worth it, my favorite pick was Bills WR Bernard Berrian, I reached to Will at draft night, with the intention to draft him, the value is excellent, the risk spot wise was not that big, and the 40 inj / 40 tgh are not that bad. Tom is the kind of tricky GM will say he’s not finding trades or that something not working for him, but is just a smokescreen he always manages to find good movements.
Another player imo worth the risk, because attributes, spot but mostly the position is OG Sean Locklear, from all the under 10 inj he has better chances to survive because of position, he’s insane from an athletic point of view and while very raw, he’s 21 yo, and if he doesn’t go down, he’ll be able to progress, worst case scenario, Lions lost a 2nd, best case scenario got a franchise player. Rodany have had brilliant drafts and if he keeps that inercy the Lions will be a dominant force of the league.
There were more players but I think those 2 were my favorites
This looks as an injury article lol, but I keep going with the ideas, ultimately, if a team did gamble and it goes bad, is just a game, and risk is part of the business, and if they worth congrats, deserve it for take a risk.
Madness
I anticipate a madness season, there are very few powerhouse teams, and back to injuries, my gut tells me 2+ (but at least 1) sb contenders will suffer a big QB injury, nothing personal is just a gut feeling (hope to be wrong).
Multiple divisions enter season without a determined order, and anything can happen, that should lead to very interesting stories.
HB Dominance
I predict this to be the season where many rushing records will be established, the more we advance into seasons the defensive players will be better so breaking offensive records will be harder, my gut tells me this is LT, Portis, Taylor, Green, McGahee, etc. Seasons, expecting many yards and TD
My SB champions pick
I called it the madness season, and yeah I think we will see a lot of surprises, but is undeniable how talented Minnesota Vikings are, yeah they were one of the best rosters to start the league, but that shouldn’t take merit from the movements Justin have made, he has established himself as one of the best premium traders, he does few trades per season but are often for luxury players or big blockbusters, he managed to add players as Portis, Gonzalez, Ward, Madison, Surtain and Jason Taylor.
Understanding the times and the league situation is vital on my gm book and he did that, he analyzed himself as a contender team with assets and used them for obtain players from teams are in a rebuild and didn’t have a problem trading away their super stars, this is a situation happens easily in a league start, by the time someone else tries this strategy the league will be different, multiple teams now will be on contender move, and will be harder to find a Tony Gonzalez or a Clinton Portis on the market.
Brad will read and I’ll probably won’t be feature ever again on his draft steal articles, or even worse he might say will retire if bress wins a sb with dallas… anyway. Imo the NFC North has my #1 on both styles, contender (Justin H) and rebuilder (Rodany).
Vikings will win a SB, they should, my prediction is happens this season, but if not is just matter of time
Eli Manning is my favorite rookie QB
ok… this will be hard to develop… when I was at 1.1 I was going to draft Philip Rivers, specially because I like drafting young prospects + he was my QB at SFL. All the GM i talked with had Rivers as the best QB, except Breck. So… everybody think Rivers was better, I was going to draft him, and now I say is my favorite rookie QB.the duality of man.
Well i thought deeply about it, and yeah it’s sad I should reconsider my life decisions, and question what am I doing, but for now here’s my reasoning.
Eli is 64 awr - 93 thp - 92 tha (better inj)
Rivers is 63 awr - 95 thp - 85 tha
Difference are 1 awr - 2 thp - 7 tha. So Eli is 8 more in progressables, better inj, while Rivers is 2 years younger and 2 thp more.
It’s impossible to say Rivers is better than Eli right now. But why Rivers appears as the best prospect? because of age… and I think the automatic thought, and something I did too, is say: ok 2 yo = to 6 points via TC + around 8-10 coming from progressables. And yeah using that logic Rivers will be better at 25 yo than Eli at 25 yo undoubtedly, but when Rivers is 25, Manning will be 27, receiving exactly the same amount of TC and similar progression, so the difference is only noticeable when they’re both regressing, or in a similar attributes if that makes sense
24 vs 22 = Manning Better
25 vs 23 = Manning Better
26 vs 24 = Manning Better
27 vs 25 = Manning Better
etc, etc. Manning reach 30 99-99, Rivers might be 28 yo and 99-99, fantastic, but during the 6-7 years it took Rivers to catch Manning, Eli was better, at that point, value wise and regression wise Rivers offers 2 more playing years and better value
Rivers is a better investment if considering trading him in some seasons, but ultimately I think Manning is a better QB. I did the projection, I saw breck projection too and Eli should reach 99-99 unless he gets very unlucky with injuries, which is another advantadge of Rivers, he has a safety net in case that happens.
Both are great prospects and franchise QB, both Chargers and Cardinals should feel great about them, the comments are not meant for glorify eli or trashtalk Rivers, is mainly a perspective about playing developing curve. This is very specific to QB and very specific to the situation.
My cowboys predictions
I’ll talk more about my team in team news, but sharing some thoughts here. I think the Cowboys are a very hard to predict team, personally I wouldn’t pick myself or against myself in elminator any week, the team is just weird, is full of veteran FA that lost ahtleticim but are smart, and then have some weird athleticism on uncommon positions and of course new QB Brees that coming from a complicated season.
Surprisingly Eagles threw the towel and started a new rebuild process, they can easily win division, have a lot of talent and their sophomore QB is good, but with McNabb had SB potential, Redskins have a LOT of talent, but some of them located in low impact positions, and their QB is not that good, I think they’re being too patient, as rival love that, but only time will tell, Scott has a plan, and he have been drafting very well, then Romeo is on rebuild.
Frankly anyone could win the division. So NFC East is part of the madness I predict… Only time will say who wins it.
If you read the article thank you, and feel free to comment whatever you want I’ll read you
|
