Week 2 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
This week we are going to change up the format. Instead of briefly summarizing what happened in the last week, I'm going to discuss why I'm picking the winner. Maybe I won't flub up and select the wrong team by mistake again!
Week 3 picks
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While the Cardinals are 0-2, they played the Rams and Patriots tough, losing by 1 and 10, respectively. They're giving up a QB Rating of 85 right now, and their rookie QB Philip Rivers has a total QB Rating of 31.5. I'm surprised they've played both their games close from that statistical standpoint. The Falcons are giving up a passer rating of 76 and while they've struggled out of the gate, I think it's only a matter of time before Michael Vick gets that offense back on track. I think this week could be the week they work the kinks out.
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The Bengals have been a surprising 2-0 team. QB Carson Palmer is obviously going to be a stud, and he's still developing. But he may be just good enough to put up some numbers. Right now the Bengals offense is top 10 in points and yardage while their defense is top 5 in rushing yards allowed and points allowed. Their pass game has been a problem, but they're matched up against a rookie QB from the Ravens in Cody Pickett. The Ravens are leaning on their defense and ground game while Pickett develops, and that suits the Bengals well.
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The Lions defensively have been very good this year, but offensively they've been one of the worst in the league and averaging just 8.5 points per game. They don't have much of a pass game, which makes defending them a bit easier as teams can focus on stopping the run. This week is a bit dicey as the Eagles lost both their starting QB Gibran Hamdan and backup QB John Navarre. The team is going to have to rely on QB Koy Detmer this week, in what is going to be one of the ugliest QB matchups of the week, and maybe even the season. I trust the Eagles defense more, so I'm giving them the edge in this one.
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I really didn't have many expectations for the Texans this year, so it's fair to say they've exceeded them already despite starting out 0-2. They have 2 losses by a combined 4 points and by most statistical metrics they're average or above average. The Texans matchup favors them in everything except run defense. We have seen games like this before where literally everything in the matchup preview favored one side and that team lost. The Chiefs just don't have it going on offense right now and I trust the Texans more.
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The Steelers take on a struggling Dolphins team and this is one of the matchups I have a lot more confidence in. I think the Steelers are legitimate contenders in the AFC, and the Dolphins are clearly in full blown rebuild mode. Crazy things do happen, but I would be surprised if the Dolphins pulled this one out.
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I'm curious what the Vikings offense is going to look like without Randy Moss for 7 weeks. They still have a ton of talent and QB Daunte Culpepper should continue to thrive, but it obviously won't be as easy as it's been. Someone else will step up, unless GM Justin Herr goes out and makes a deal. He only has three 7th round picks left, so it would need to be some type of player swap. The Bears have been struggling and just lost their QB Craig Kreznel for 9 weeks. I would expect QBs Kliff Kingsbury and Ryan Leaf to struggle against most teams, especially one with veteran talent like Minnesota.
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This is a coin flip game. The Browns have been shopping for a CB and just lost one of their starters in CB Daylon McCutcheon. Realistically, I don't think the Browns have enough talent to make noise this year. I think they're better off embracing the position they're in and build for the future rather than trading future assets to try to win now. It all starts with QB Tim Couch who has a pedestrian 46.8 QB Rating at age 27 and after restructuring last year to a 7 year, $105m contract. Embrace the suck and get a franchise QB next draft. The Giants are developing QB Tony Romo and I think they have more complementary talent, even if he isn't playing any better than Couch. I'm giving the edge to the Giants but it could easily go either direction.
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Somehow I picked against the Rams last week, I have no idea how that happened. I feel like they are one of the big contenders in the NFC and are clearly the favorites in this one. This is one of my other confident picks of the week, I would be surprised if the Rams dropped this one. The Saints are developing QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Rams are full of top veteran talent.
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If the Jaguars were starting QB Mark Brunell I would have more confidence in picking them, but they're rolling with the development of 3rd round rookie QB Matt Mauck. They were able to win week 1 thanks to an injury to Mauck that forced Brunell into the game and he played great. The Titans are playing very good football and as long as Mauck is the starter, this is a clear one-sided matchup in favor of Tennessee.
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The Broncos defense has been lights out. They have a 49.7 QB Rating allowed and are 1st in points allowed and yards allowed. HB Ron Dayne is averaging over 5.7 ypc, and with a strong defense the team absolutely should be leaning into the ground game. The Chargers are actually a top 10 offense from a statistical standpoint right now, even with a rookie QB in Eli Manning. Are they that good, or is it the case of playing weaker teams like Houston and New York Jets? You can make that case against Denver as well, as they've played shutdown defense against QBs Byron Leftwich and Matt Mauck. This is one of the more difficult games to predict, my initial thought was to go with Denver, but I like the star power on San Diego's side and thinking the Broncos defense has been propped up by the poor play of their opponents QBs.
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This is a potential Super Bowl matchup. I can't believe the Colts dropped last week's game to the Titans, that tells you how well the Titans are playing right now. I don't think I can count on Peyton Manning dropping back-to-back games. The Packers just lost HB Ahman Green and WR Isaac Bruce for 2 weeks. They will be okay in the pass game, but I don't trust HB Najeh Davenport to be very effective against Indianapolis. Nothing would surprise me in this one, but I'm giving the edge to the Colts.
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The 49ers have been another surprise. Starting QB J.P. Losman, I didn't think they were going to be very strong this year but they've been battling. I think the Seahawks are ready to compete today with QB Matt Hasselbeck leading their team. The Seahawks are 8th in points, but from a yardage standpoint they haven't played too well yet. The defensive advantage would go to San Francisco but I like Seattle a bit more. Divisional matchups, to me, are always coin flips. While I know GM Apolo Shapiro had provided statistical evidence that there doesn't seem to be home field advantage in Madden, I believe in it, so Seattle gets the nod here.
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The Buccaneers are 2-0 after trading for QB Drew Bledsoe, not all that surprising. They are 4th in points scored, but 31st in passing offense, I didn't see that coming! Their run game has been getting it done for them. The Raiders haven't played bad football but are off to an 0-2 start. Their starting RB is having some fumbling issues and appears to have been benched in back-to-back weeks. Perhaps it's time they look at another guy there. QB Brian Griese, whom the team gave up a future 1st round pick for in Match Eligible FA, hasn't played all that bad. I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders were able to grab their first win of the season, but I have a bit more confidence in Tampa Bay right now.
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The Cowboys defense has been playing very well, and it's taking some getting used to that they have QB Drew Brees. They were my favorite to win the NFC East and that hasn't changed. They're 2-0 and squaring off against a Washington team that is developing QB Patrick Ramsey. Ramsey has a QB Rating of 37.3 so far. They need to lean into their run game a bit more, but their lead back Ladell Betts is only averaging 4.0 YPC. On top of their offensive woes, they just lost their #2 CB Fred Smoot for the season, just after he had been potentially linked to a trade with Cleveland. This is one of my other locks for the week.
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