Week 3 Recap
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| Winner: Correct
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| Winner: Correct
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| Winner: Incorrect
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| Winner: Incorrect
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| Winner: Correct
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| Winner: Incorrect
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
TOTAL: 25-21
What a disastrous week! Not only did I hit 40% of the picks, I was 3/5 on the "locks". Shows you how much I know! Lets see if we rebound week 4!
Week 4 picks
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I can't bet against Tom Brady. Divisional games are funny, and even though the Bills are the home team, I'm rolling with the more talented team. Buffalo split with New England during the regular season last year and then beat them in the Divisional Round. I don't think many teams will have their number, they're due for a win to even the series.
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The Eagles pulled off a win with their 3rd string QB and now get their guy back in QB Gibran Hamdan. He has played well so far this year. Meanwhile the Bears are without their QB Craig Krenzel for another 8 weeks. I can't bet on Kliff Kingsbury or Ryan Leaf any week.
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This is a coin flip for me. I'm surprised the Browns are 2-1 right now. I think their team is lacking serious talent and their QB is not a legitimate option, but the record is all that matters. They're squaring off against a Redskins team that's developing QB Patrick Ramsey and 26th in points scored. The Redskins have the advantage defensively but I think the Browns are the safer bet.
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The Packers are 3-0 and the clear favorites at home in this one. Green Bay is 2nd in points, 1st in total yardage and 2nd in pass yardage. They're firing on all cylinder and I don't think the Giants can slow them down. The Packers are a lock this week!
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I think the Raiders are better than their 1-2 record. This is a good game for them to rebound against the 0-3 Texans. Houston being the newest expansion team will take time to build. I think the process will take longer as their GM is not easy to make deals with, so they will have to rely on what little talent is out there in FA and the draft. Oakland gets back to .500 this week.
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Peyton Manning is injured for this week, will the Jags steal this game? Mark Brunell has resumed starting QB duties, I did not notice that last week! I was originally going to give the nod to the Colts here even without Manning, but Brunell is legit and I think an offense led by Quincy Carter or Craig Nall is going to struggle.
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There was a comment about how a rookie QB shutout the Bengals this week. It's always funny to hear that kind of stuff, we compare QBs against one another, but they don't play defense. Carson Palmer has played great, but we forget he's still a sub 70 AWR QB and very young. His future is super bright. I think the Bengals will have some big moments, but the Steelers are the class of this division right now.
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This is another coin flip kind of game for me. The Cardinals are a little more efficient on offense and have the advantage on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if either team won, but I think Arizona has the advantage in this one.
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The Falcons offense is broken! When are they going to figure it out? The gameplan has changed each week without success as they are 29th in points and 29th in yardage. Until they figure something out I'm going to have to start picking against them every week as they have continued to burn me.
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These two teams are a combined 0-5, so one of them will snag their first victory of the season. The Jets are a team I was higher on before the season and felt that the QB Chad Pennington injury last year really hurt. He's healthy but they're still playing poorly. This is a good bounce back week against the rebuilding Dolphins who are at or near the bottom in most metrics. The Jets are a lock this week!
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Tennessee looks GOOD! 1st in points, 2nd in offensive yardage, 6th in points allowed, 1st in rushing yards allowed. They're forcing teams to beat them through the air and they're ranked 15th in QB Rating allowed. Forcing teams to be one dimensional helps tremendously. I think the Chargers have played well with a rookie QB, and the Titans get sneaky here starting QB Brooks Bollinger gives the Chargers a chance to steal this game. Titans had an opportunity to go 4-0 but seek progression for the young QB instead.
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This is a riskier pick. The Broncos surprisingly have the #1 defense in points allowed. I said last week that it's got a lot to do with who they played. Their toughest test so far was the Chargers offense led by a rookie. San Diego lost, but managed 17 first downs and 300 yards of offense while Eli Manning had a QB Rating above 90. I think the Bucs, led by QB Drew Bledsoe, will be a tough challenge for Denver. Tampa Bay is down their top WR in Keyshawn Johnson, but we're still taking the home team here.
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The Rams are a Super Bowl contending team built to win right now. The 49ers are developing rookie QB J.P. Losman. I just don't see them hanging with St. Louis. It may not be the greatest show on turf anymore, but the Rams can still put up points. The 49ers have talent but it's tough to pick Losman over Kurt Warner. Rams are a lock!
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I heard the Ravens dominated last week in their 21-0 win over the Bengals. I looked at the box score, 2-15 on 3rd downs. 2 FOR 15 IS NOT DOMINATION FOLKS! One long pass made Cody Pickett's day look decent. Carson Palmer struggled, as I mentioned, he's a second year QB. Perhaps the headline should've read the Ravens defense dominated. I still have the Ravens winning this week, it was a stacked team that was only lacking a QB, and still don't have one ready to compete with the top teams in the league. The overall team talent wins them this game.
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*The Colts and Titans were previously picked to win and were considered LOCKS, but the Colts without Peyton Manning are expected to face Mark Brunell, and the Titans decided to start QB Brooks Bollinger instead of Steve McNair.
