Week 4 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
TOTAL: 31-29
I am not good at this. I was 1-2 on the "locks", thanks to Green Bay benching Favre thinking they had an easy win.
Week 5 picks
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The Michael Vick-led Falcons are 0-4, which is a surprise. I feel like I get burned by Atlanta every week, but I'm having a hard time picking against them this week. The Detroit Lions are 32rd in points scored and total offense. Their defense has been keeping them in games, but eventually the Falcons need to break out of their slump.
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I still believe in Dallas even though they burned me the last time I said they were a lock. I always prefer the better QB and the Cowboys obviously have that in Drew Brees. Their defense has been excellent, allowing the 3rd fewest points per game. Their offense has been average, I think they will improve as the season goes on and GM Apolo Shapiro figures out what works for these guys. I don't think Tony Romo is going to do enough to sneak a W in this one, but divisional games are funny like that.
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The first "lock" of the week is the Minnesota Vikings. They have the advantage in nearly every statistical category except, ironically, passing yards. You would think the Daunte Culpepper-led offense would be outpacing the David Carr offense, even without Randy Moss. Like the Cowboys, the Vikings haven't hit their groove yet. I think the Vikings are one of the small handful of teams that are legit Super Bowl contenders.
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Without Peyton Manning the Colts handled the Jacksonville Jaguars with Mark Bruenll starting for the Jags. That is a good win! This week Manning is listed as Probable, so he's almost guaranteed to play and may have a slight attribute ding, which is fine as he's elite. The Colts are stacked and even though the Raiders have played pretty well, it's hard to bet against Indy.
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The Patriots lost the replayed week 4 game, I was hoping that wasn't going to be the case. They're off to a surprising 1-3 start, but I think it's only a matter of time before they come out of their shell. There's a few teams underperforming right now that will get hot soon enough. The Patriots are one of those teams and will bounce back this week against the 31st offense in points scored and 27th defense in points allowed. The Patriots are a lock!
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The Bucs won this past week and did it on defense. They're 6th in points scored and 10th in points allowed. The addition of QB Drew Bledsoe has been huge for them, although the injury bug is hitting them, taking out WR Keyshawn Johnson, MLB Shelton Quarles and DT Warren Sapp. I think they would be a lock any other week, but down some key players and it being a divisional game, I will hold off on making that prediction despite the Saints being 20th in points and 19th in points allowed.
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Another team with a top QB that is underperforming on offense is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I predicted the offense led by QB Donovan McNabb to be a powerhouse in the AFC. They're only 21st in points scored and 18th in total yardage. It's been their defense that has kept them in it. The Browns are a surprising 3-1! That is SHOCKING! I think they're fools gold, though, and the Steelers handle them easily. They are the 3rd lock of the week!
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The Bills got lucky and won the replayed game against the Patriots. Both of the games were very close, though, so maybe Buffalo is a contender despite the many moves they made this off-season. On the other hand, the Jets just hired a new GM and he's already shopping QB Chad Pennington. Will he be traded before week 5? They're 0-3 and the 27th offense in points scored with Pennington, so the Bills are the predicted winners in this one, a Chad Pennington trade would make the Bills a lock, but we will hold off on making that prediction unless a trade happens.
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What a tough week for San Diego, losing rookie QB Eli Manning for the season! Rumor has it that the Chargers are actively searching for a QB, maybe they make a move for Pennington! I think the Jaguars are the favorites in this one with the Chargers losing their QB, assuming Mark Brunell is the starter. He is another guy I could see being dealt away before the trade deadline. For now, Jacksonville gets the nod due to a more stable QB situation.
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The Broncos tough defense faced a legitimate test this past week. They forced 2 Drew Bledsoe INTs and a fumble credited to Chris Perry, but gave up 397 yards, 17 first downs and allowed 50% conversion on 3rd downs. The Broncos defense is still good, but the stats made them appear a bit better. The Panthers are surprisingly 3rd in points scored, 3rd in total offense, 6th in passing offense and 9th in rushing offense. A very balanced attack and productive thus far. This was a coin flip for me, I should probably give it to the home team but I'm rolling with the Panthers in this one.
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A divisional game featuring two teams that are focused on developing rookie QBs. If this was the NFL this would be a nationally televised and very ugly game. I trust the Cardinals a bit more despite the 49ers having the better record. I like Philip Rivers more than J.P. Josman, and the Cardinals have held teams to under 70 yards rushing per game, requiring the pass game to do the heavy lifting, I don't like that for San Francisco.
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The Rams are one of those teams that will almost always be favored. While I believe in the Seahawks, the Rams just started with more talent and Seattle hasn't closed that gap. St. Louis is 4th in points scored and total yards while allowing the 2nd fewest pass yards at 145 per game. They're allowing teams to run on them, which may extend drives, but is making them one dimensional.
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Baltimore won another game on the back of their defense, the recipe for winning with a rookie QB. Jamal Lewis was held to 3.43 yards per carry, Cody Pickett to 153 yards and 45.8 completion %, but Baltimore scores 29 points thanks to 6 turnovers. Facing QB Patrick Ramsey, despite their offense not being good, the Ravens will roll, they're a lock this week!
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What a matchup! Both of these teams are powerhouses. The Titans have the #1 offense in points scored, the Packers the #1 offense in yardage. Both are allowing less than 20 points per game and both in the top 10 in turnover differential. The only thing that prevented the Packers from starting the season 4-0 was underestimating the New York Giants and started QB Dave Ragone over Brett Favre. Maybe next time GM Brad Barber will estimate them. I think the Packers win this one as the home team.
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