Week 5 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
TOTAL: 44-30
Week 6 picks
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I no longer believe in the Falcons. After the Chargers lost their rookie franchise QB Eli Manning, they went out and acquired Jake Delhomme to take his spot. He isn’t a great QB, but he will be serviceable enough to keep them competitive. I think the Falcons have the players but just are not playing well right now.
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The rebuilding Dolphins without their young signal caller Rex Grossman on the road against the Bills. I think this game obviously favors Buffalo. Their defense is suspect again, but the Dolphins offense just isn’t productive. I think the Bills should win this game rather decisively, but divisional games can be funny. The Bills have every advantage on offense and in the turnover differential, while their defense is actually statistically worse than Miami’s, so much for bolstering it this past off-season!
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Both of these teams are having a hard time, I don’t have any confidence in the pick, regardless of who I selected as I think this game could go either way. Both offenses are at the bottom in points scored. The Bears defense is doing a bit better and they’re slightly better in the turnover differential. Turnovers heavily influence games, but they can also be very random so it’s hard to put a ton of weight into them. I just trust Patrick Ramsey more than Kliff Kingsbury. If the Redskins sell some players as they’re rumored to be doing this could lean things toward Chicago.
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I am still not a believer in the Browns despite their record. Their GM publicly stated they plan to release QB Tim Couch as soon as they can! Surprising news after they just signed him to a $105m contract last year, but I don’t think it’s the wrong move. He’s costing them over $10m this year and it gets more expensive each year. He’s a 27-year-old QB with 75 AWR and 84 THA, by the time he does progress he will be regressing, they’re better off moving on. Couch has been benched for Kelly Holcomb, which makes sense considering their plans to move on from Couch. Carson Palmer is still a 2nd year QB but he has played well this year, this could be a dog fight in the dawg pound, but I am giving the slight edge to Cincinnati here.
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The Packers are a Super Bowl contending team, when they’re starting Brett Favre. They’re facing off against a Lions team who have one of the worst offenses in the league. Barring a Favre injury, there’s just no reason Green Bay drops this game, even if it is a divisional opponent. Green Bay is a lock!
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Predicting the Jaguars games were difficult since I never knew who their starting QB is from week-to-week, but now that Matt Mauck is injured, we know (or so we think), it’s Mark Brunell. The 2 wins by Jacksonville this year are when Brunell came in due to injury and tore it up. I like their chances, assuming he’s the starter! The Chiefs are struggling on offense and while their statistics on defense good pretty decent, I think that has more to do with the teams the offenses they’ve played so far.
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Both of these teams are off to slower starts than I had imagined. I thought the Seahawks were built with more vets and ready to win now, even if they weren’t true Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, the Patriots team led by Tom Brady is obviously in that Super Bowl conversation. It’s only a matter of time before New England and Brady figure it out and go on a tear. I think the Patriots are a safe pick in this one. Seattle really needs to figure out their defense if they’re going to have a shot in this one.
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It’s been a solid start for the 49ers this year despite developing rookie QB J.P. Losman. They now get to square off against a New York Jets team that appears to be going full rebuild. Chad Pennington is a good QB, despite the stats. It appears he was highly coveted as at least two teams offered a 1st and 2nd +. He now joins the Texans, and the Jets are looking like they’re going to finish the year with Marques Tuiasosopo or Danny Wuerffel taking snaps. I think the 49ers have the advantage here and the Jets are probably hoping they lose.
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I’ve been pretty wrong about both of these teams this year. The trading of QB Donovan McNabb signaled a rebuild in Philly, but they’ve been competitive! I was surprised Carolina made the playoffs last year, felt it was a fluke and wrote them off, but they’ve also been competitive! This is a tough game for me to predict, the Panthers are doing very well on offense while the Eagles are hanging around the middle of the pack. Defensively the Panthers are toward the bottom 3rd while the Eagles are above average to good. It’s a strength vs strength kind of game. It’s a coin flip, I’m taking the home team.
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Big splash made by the Texans going out and getting Chad Pennington, good for them to try to win instead of waiting around for the draft every year. It’s a slow build, especially on a team that didn’t have much talent to start and some question marks with how talented the draft class will be. The Titans have been excellent this year, so while I believe the Texans offense will be much improved, I think Tennessee has put themselves into the Super Bowl conversation and will be motivated to remind Houston they’re, at best, 3rd in the division.
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The Cowboys burn me quite a bit, at least that’s how it feels anyway. I would have to look back through to see my success with them, maybe that’s a good end-of-season article to see who I was right/wrong about over the course of the season. The Steelers were one of my pre-season favorites after they acquired Donovan McNabb. They still haven’t found their rhythm, and starting to wonder if they’re going to get their groove this season or not. I think they’re certainly capable of being a top team and giving them the slight edge in this one.
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Not only do the Broncos have the better defense, but they will have the better offense, too, after QB Brian Griese went down with an injury week 5. The Raiders are going to be forced to go with QB Jim Sorgi, unless they acquire a new QB this week. I think the Broncos defense looks better statistically because of the offenses they’ve faced, but they’re still a good defense. This is another good matchup for them.
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The Saints traded QB Jake Delhomme to San Diego, but there will be no noticeable difference to their team as they’ve been trotting Ben Roethlisberger and Luke McCown at QB this year. I thought Roethlisberger was healthy but McCown got the nod in week 4, perhaps it was an oversight by myself, or the Saints. The Vikings went all-in last year in trading for RE Jason Taylor and TE Tony Gonzalez. They’re down WR Randy Moss and may have him back for their week 10 game against Green Bay, that could be very important as they’re playing Tennessee and Indianapolis in that stretch without him. I think this week is a no-brainer for Minnesota and they’re a lock!
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This looks like an awesome matchup! The Bucs offense has been productive since they’ve acquired QB Drew Bledsoe, but still don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders just yet. Meanwhile the Rams, led by QB Kurt Warner, have so many weapons I think that offense is hard to stop. They’re also a Super Bowl favorite. I think the Bucs defense has played better, and while the Rams are getting up there in age and may not be the Greatest Show on Turf anymore, it will be a real test for the Tampa Bay defense. I am picking St. Louis here, but a Tampa Bay win would certainly make some noise in the NFC!
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