Week 8 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
TOTAL: 68-48
Week 9 picks
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The Jets are clearly in rebuild mode after they sold off some real good players. They now have 3 1sts, 3 2nds and 2 3rds. How they will keep all those guys after 4 seasons will be a challenge, but it should bring in some talent for them next year. For now, they're clearly going to get pushed around. This should be an easy W for the Bills before they hit a stretch of @NE, vs STL, @SEA. The Bills are a lock this week!
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Fewer teams I got more wrong than Carolina. They're now 5-2 and squaring off against a Raiders team that might have Brian Griese back. His injury designation is "Probable". With the Raiders sitting at 4th in the AFC West, and having traded their future 1st, they cannot play this conservative. I expect to see Griese for this one. I think the Raiders team is better than their record, but Carolina is legit. The matchup preview favors Carolina in every single category, teams have lost before despite that (such as myself).
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The Bengals have dropped 2 straight but they've played some good football this year with 2nd year QB Carson Palmer. There will be more growing pains as he develops. The Cowboys were my preseason favorites in the NFC East and that hasn't changed. They're sitting at 5-2 after a stunning loss against the Detroit Lions. Sometimes crazy stuff happens. I think they're a good team and confident they get the W in this one.
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You wouldn't think this game would be interesting, but both these teams are coming off some very big wins. As just mentioned, the Lions beat the Cowboys in week 8, and the Redskins just took down the Packers in a game that Green Bay did not sit Brett Favre. Washington is on a 2 game win streak while Detroit is riding a 3 game win streak. I think this game is a coin flip, I'm rolling with Washington here as I have a little more faith in their offense.
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Crushing news for Arizona this past week as they lose QB Philip Rivers for 8 weeks. He has an outside chance of returning week 17 and potentially the playoffs if they can hang on in the NFC. The team has not made any significant moves at QB, it looks like they're riding with Josh McCown, at least for this week. He really struggled against Buffalo last week. Meanwhile the Dolphins, who are clearly in rebuild mode, can't seem to lose! They've now won 3 straight, beating the Bills, Rams, and Jets. Not many teams playing as hot as them right now. I'm rolling with Miami especially while Arizona has to navigate their offense with a new signal caller.
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Here is an interesting one, we have a double QB revenge game going here as QB Donovan McNabb faces off against the team that surprisingly dealt him away this off-season for the young Gibran Hamdan. Pittsburgh is a team I was very wrong about, I had them as potential Super Bowl contenders, here they are at 3-4, dropping their last 2 games. Their defense has been good, but that offense has been erratic, even with McNabb running the show. I think they win this one, but hope that both QBs go off in this one!
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The Buccaneers are contenders this year. They're sitting at 5-2 and tied for the 2nd best record in the NFC. This season the top dawgs are dropping some games that you wouldn't expect them to see, I think the NFC is wide open and the Bucs could certainly make a run. They're playing well on both sides of the ball, and present a big challenge for the Chiefs this week. Defensively the Chiefs have been playing pretty well, but their offense is a mess and I think they really struggle to move the ball against Tampa Bay. The Bucs are a lock this week!
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Here's an interesting stat line, the only QB to be sacked more than Giants QB Tony Romo this year is Bears QB Kliff Kingsbury, who has been taken down 34 times in 7 games. The Bears starting QB Craig Krenzel has been out since being injured week 1, it's looking like a week 11 or week 12 return for him. So this week it's QB Ryan Leaf. The 54 AWR, 73 THA QB has thrown only 1 pass this year. The Giants don't really have much of a pass rush, this could be a week to get them going, or the perfect time for Chicago to be onto their 3rd QB. For the Giants offense, Romo has been sacked 29 times in 7 games. He has really struggled this year with a 45% completion percentage, 9:20 TD:INT ratio and a 42.3 QB Rating. Sadly, he's probably going to be the more productive QB in this game. I am picking NY, but I think this is a coin flip.
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It hasn't been the prettiest, but QB Jake Delhomme has stepped in to QB the Chargers with the loss of Eli Manning. They have now won 3 straight in spite of the Delhomme-led pass game. Over his 4 game stretch as the starter he is sub 50% completion percentage, 4:5 TD:INT ratio and a QB Rating of 66. Oddly enough LaDainian Tomlinson has been held scoreless during these last 3 wins as well. The defense has been stifling, allowing just 38 points over the last 3 games. I would expect the same to continue as the Saints are developing rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger. He has played alright but just can't stay healthy. The Saints offense is 28th in points scored, giving San Diego defense a softer matchup.
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I really want to pick Seattle here, but they have burned me several times this year. They were another team I was decently high on, thinking the veteran QB would help them get into the Wild Card picture. Instead they've dropped 3 consecutive and are sitting at 2-5. They have barely touched their gameplan, so expecting things to suddenly turn around for them doesn't seem likely. The 49ers had two easier matchups against the Jets and Bears that they won. They beat Seattle on the road last time, I think they have a real chance to get the sweep.
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I know it's very difficult to win without a QB, so I don't fault anybody for trading picks to get a good QB. I think Chad Pennington is a good QB. But this trade has certainly backfired for Houston. Their only win has come against the Titans when they started young QB Brooks Bollinger. They're 1-6 on the season, and their 1st round pick they traded to the Jets could very likely end up being the 1st overall. Pennington played well against Tennessee, but struggled against the Vikings and his 3 INTs last week against the Jaguars overshadowed what could've been a good outing. The Broncos have a good defense so a bounce back game may be difficult. Chris Simms had a good week against Atlanta last week, and he has an opportunity to string together two nice performances by playing a Texans defense that is 30th in points allowed and 27th in yardage allowed.
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This could be the game of the week if not for the Colts/Vikings matchup. The Patriots have won 4 straight but they have not been easy. While they blew out the Seahawks, they beat Miami by 3, the Jets by 5 and the Steelers by 4. The Steelers had a chance to win the game but with 4 seconds left deep in New England territory, and the clock running, they chose not to snap the ball and time expired. Playing weaker teams close bites them this week as the Rams look to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Miami.
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The Ravens are a lock in this one. Their defense has given virtually every team trouble. Their offense has been sputtering, but it doesn't matter. Stifling defense that also forces turnovers has been their recipe for success. Cleveland surprisingly beat them week 1, but I don't put a ton of weight into what happens during week 1 as we don't know team tendencies yet. It would be a shock if Cleveland swept Baltimore.
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It's surprising that the Colts are only 4-3. I expected them to really dominate in the AFC. The Vikings are looking for payback with the Super Bowl loss, and while it's just a regular season game, they get it. Their only loss was week 1 against Dallas, and as I just said, I don't put too much weight into those week 1 games. They have rattled off 6 consecutive, have the #4 scoring offense and #1 scoring defense. The Colts have dropped games to tough opponents in Tennessee and Green Bay. The Vikings are better than those teams, I think Minnesota has the edge here.
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