Week 9 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
TOTAL: 77-53
Week 10 picks
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The Falcons are just 1-7 and really having a difficult season. Meanwhile the Bucs are 6-2 and one of the best teams in the PFL. I don't think this game is close, the Bucs should win by double digits even though I feel divisional games are more of a dice roll than usual. I have the Bucs as a lock!
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This is another easier pick, unless the Colts try and start Craig Nall? I've seen teams use these easier matchups to try to get a win while also developing their young guy. Those teams seem to keep losing those games when they do it and the Colts are in a 3-way tie with a 4-4 record, they can't afford to give a win away. The Texans got their 2nd win of the season, despite Chad Pennington throwing 4 INT in the game. I'm not a believer. The Colts are also a lock!
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With a dramatic turn of events, the Steelers went from being a lock for this week to a loss, thanks to a 1 week injury to QB Donovan McNabb and a career ending injury to backup QB Josh Harris. The Steelers do not have a healthy QB on the roster. The best free agent QB is Rob Johnson, barring the Steelers making a surprise trade, it's hard to bet against the Browns, who may not have a good QB, but Tim Couch is better than any free agent QB out there.
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I am super confident in these picks this week, only because I think the matchups for several of the games are very favorable to one side. This is another example, I don't believe in the Lions, they have a lot of growing to do before they're contenders. The Jaguars with Mark Brunell have the ability to take down any team in the league. As long as he stays healthy in this one the Jags win convincingly. The Jags are the 3rd lock of the week!
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This is the only game that I looked at the schedule and really didn't know which team I preferred. I'm going with the Chiefs as their defense has been middle of the road compared to New Orleans being bottom 4 in many categories. The offenses aren't great on either side, but from a points scored perspective the Chiefs have the advantage as well. This is probably my least confident pick of the week.
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The Jets snagged their first win of the season, and while I'm still pretty pissed about it, there was some luck to it with 14 of their 27 points coming on KR TDs. They had 144 passing yards and Tuiasosopo was sacked 4 times. The offense is led by HB LaMont Jordan. The Ravens have arguably the best defense in the league, I don't see the Jets striking gold in back-to-back weeks. Ravens QB Cody Pickett has thrown 10 INTs in 8 games, if there's a path to the Jets winning it's by cashing in on turnovers. I just don't see it. The Ravens are the 4th lock of the week!
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In the preseason I said the Rams are going to take a while to "fade into the sunset". I think they're fading now. They're 4-3 and leading the division but they haven't looked good this year. They've lost to the Saints and Dolphins, and while they just beat the Patriots, it took losing Tom Brady for the game for the Rams to come back and win, thanks also to a missed FG to tie it up. That being said, The Seahawks beat them earlier in the year. They're also struggling this year and in last place in the division. I just don't see the Seahawks sweeping the Rams, but I think neither of them are playing good football right now and with it being a divisional game, this one could be up for grabs.
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The Bears are rumored to be trading MLB Brian Urlacher to Dallas. Lets talk about that for a moment, if you've got a stud player, let alone a 26-year-old, why wouldn't you shop that player to see what you could get? I have seen it several times and question it every time, even when divisional rivals are doing it. SHOP YOUR GUYS. With that being said, Urlacher gone or not, the Titans run away with this game, unless they bench McNair. Is he really beings shopped? Hard to see through the smoke when it comes to Bryan Mellon. As long as they have McNair they should start him, especially with a tight race in the division. The Titans are a lock!
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The Bengals won 4 of their first 4 with a second year QB and looked like they cracked the code, then dropped their next 3 games. Their offense is now down to 27th in points scored per game, someone threw down the Uno reversal card. Those 3 losses: Broncos, Titans, Cowboys. Not bad losses. I think the Redskins will be the easiest team they've seen in a month, even though they're on the opposite end, having won 3 consecutive. Patrick Ramsey has strung together back-to-back good performances, there's hope the win streak could stay alive. I'm less confident in this matchup and think it could go either direction.
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The Cardinals sitting at 4-4 with rookie QB Philip Rivers and now Charlie Batch is a successful halfway point for them. They draw another easier matchup this week, buying them time to figure out how to make the offense productive after the Rivers injury. The Giants are 20th in points scored and 25th in points allowed. While the Cardinals offense isn't any better, they're 5th in points allowed, and won some games thanks to forcing turnovers, they're +6 on the year and 4th in TO differential. Romo takes a lot of sacks, I think the Cardinals win the turnover battle here.
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The Packers are a real good team but they're facing the best team in the league. Divisional games are always fun, and this one will surely be entertaining. Flukey things happen, so the Packers could surprise in this one, but barring a real stinker of a day by the Vikings offense and/or special teams magic, I'm confident in Minnesota here as they have the 4th best offense in points scored and 2nd best defense in points allowed. For comparision sake the Packers are 8th on offense and 19th on defense.
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I finally warmed up to the Panthers and they reward me by dropping 2 of their last 3. I thought they were better than the Chargers and Raiders, so I'm not going to excuse those losses away. It doesn't make them a bad team, we can't win them all. I think they're better than the 49ers, but they did just bench rookie QB J.P. Losman for veteran Trent Green. It was a rocky game for Green, but may take some time to figure out what works for him. He's certainly more prepared to win now. If they roll with Green I could see SF surprising with a win here.
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The Bills won the first matchup, I would expect to split with New England. QB Tom Brady was knocked out of the week 9 matchup against the Rams but I don't expect that to keep him out in week 10 or beyond. Despite Kerry Collins being a bum, the Bills have the 2nd highest scoring offense. Buffalo has forced 3 Tom Brady interceptions earlier this year and 2 in the divisional round of the playoffs last year that saw the Bills advance. I think Brady figures it out against a Bills defense that has always been a liability and gives up big plays.
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Again, regardless if the Cowboys acquired MLB Urlacher or not, I prefer Dallas here. As I've said many times before, divisional games are a bit crazier than normal, at least from my perspective. The Cowboys have the #9 offense and #6 defense, compared to the Eagles #13 offense and #14 defense. Considering the Eagles are developing 2nd year QB Gibran Hamdan the team is playing very well. He's still young and more likely susceptible to mistakes, and just so happen to be playing a Dallas team that is #1 in turnover differential at +11. I feel like turnovers are one of the most random aspects of the game, but when teams have those magical seasons you can't ignore it. Drew Brees only has 3 INTs, tied with Brett Favre for second best behind Steve McNair who has less than half the attempts. Cowboys CB Ray Buchanan has 7 INTs already, a 33-year-old free agent acquisition at 5'9", 87 SPD, and 69 CTH, WILD.
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