Week 10 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
TOTAL: 88-56
Week 11 picks
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Great matchup here as both the Ravens and Cowboys are 7-2. The Ravens have been magical in that they are 26th in yardage but 10th in points scored. A lot of that is the result of a real stingy defense that is 1st in points and 1st in yards. Additionally, they have the 2nd best turnover differential at +11. They’re matched up against the Cowboys who are 11th in point scored, 6th in points allowed and they’re the #1 team in turnover differential at +13. I have picked the Cowboys here because I trust their offense more. The Ravens have shut down almost every team they’ve faced and have given up 20 points or more only 3 times this season. I have a hunch that Cowboys GM Apolo Shapiro will have answers.
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The Rams forced 4 turnovers last week and still almost lost the game with just a 3 point victory. The previous week they squeaked by the Patriots after Tom Brady was knocked out of the game. And the week before that they lost to the Dolphins. The Rams are in a bit of a funk right now and I don’t trust them. On top of that they lost their only weapon in the pass game in WR Torry Holt, but GM Justin Walstead quickly traded for WR Santana Moss, so the NY Jets can continue sticking it to Buffalo. The Bills rebounded from their embarrassing loss to the Jets by beating the Patriots for the 2nd time. Buffalo has some good wins but some real bad losses, it seems like a team that plays best against the better teams, which would give them an edge in this one, but I don’t trust them against the Rams. Their defense isn’t good enough to consistently slow down Kurt Warner and this offense.
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The Cardinals are somehow 5-4 and it’s still a surprise to me. They’ve kept the scores low for the most part which has allowed them to win in spite of their shaky offense. They have looked good a few times this year, but that was back when Philip Rivers was healthy. They’re 4th in points allowed, 6th in yards allowed and 5th in turnover differential. The key to their games is ball control and stifling defense. I started to believe in the Panthers and then they hit a slump. They’ve dropped their past 2 games to the Raiders and 49ers and both of those games were very winnable. They are the polar opposite of Arizona with a better offense and a shaky defense. I think Carolina bounces back in this one.
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The Colts should run away with this game. The Colts have the #1 offense, led by the #1 pass offense. Their defense has fallen off this year, dropping from 2nd last year to 25th this year in points allowed. That’s steep! On the surface it looks like the Bears have the #1 pass defense, that is in terms of pass yardage. In terms of QB Rating allowed they’re 17th, which is a much easier matchup for Indy. They also just traded away MLB Brian Urlacher to the Dallas Cowboys, so that defense is about to take a MASSIVE HIT. On offense, the Bears are without QB Craig Krenzel for another week, so it will be 52 AWR Kliff Kingsbury trying to upset the Colts. I don’t see that happening. The Colts are a lock this week!
Public Service Announcement: ALWAYS SHOP YOUR STUDS!
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With a healthy QB Donovan McNabb I’m choosing the Steelers here. After winning 4 of their first 5, the Bengals have dropped their last 4 consecutive games. There’s no better time to rebound than by facing Elvis Grbac under center. The Steelers literally have the advantage in every statistical category on the matchup preview, but I’m still taking Cincinnati here and I don’t think it’s really an upset due to the QB situation. Last week the Steelers forced 4 turnovers against the Browns, but gave up 5 themselves and lost 18-8. Unless teams start to figure out the Ravens, both of these teams are playing for the Wild Card and a loss here really puts them in a difficult spot. 8-8 teams aren’t division winners in the AFC.
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The Jets are doing what Miami couldn’t do, put the most competitive team on the field and still lose. After their trades a few weeks ago they’ve managed just 1 win, against Buffalo. They acquired Marques Tuiasosopo to get them through the year, and now he’s out for another 7 weeks. That injury will knock him out for the remainder of the season. Now they’re reportedly turning to QB Casey Bramlet, a 7th round pick by the Dolphins that the team did not sign and had already been signed and released by the Bengals this year. He or Danny Wuerffel are going to finish the tank for them, but does it really matter? The Browns have been struggling, but they’re facing back-to-back weeks where their opponent doesn’t have a decent QB. It was Pittsburgh in week 10 and now the Jets in week 11. Only a team like Buffalo would lose in this situation. With the Bengals and Steelers playing each other, a win by Cleveland here puts them tied for 2nd in the division.
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Once upon a time the Titans were the hottest team in the league, then they dropped 4 straight games. They have now won back-to-back games, but barely squeaked out a win against the Bears while Tennessee was starting Brooks Bollinger. 3 of their 4 losses have come from games that they started Bollinger, they could be in line for the #1 seed had they played Steve McNair. Luckily the division is still tight with a 3-way tie for first place at 5-4. The Jaguars are a totally different team with Mark Brunell starting. He has played some great football and Jacksonville has won their last 3 games, including a win against the Colts. This matchup should be very good, if the Titans underestimate the Jags and roll with Bollinger, this will be a blowout in favor of Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 30th in points allowed, 31st in yardage allowed and 21st in turnover differential at -2. I think a Brunell-led offense can hang with a McNair-led offense, but the defense will not get the stops they need.
UPDATE!!
New Winner:
The Titans, in the thick of the AFC South divisional race, traded their star QB Steve McNair to San Diego today. This means it is now officially Brooks Bollinger time, This is a big help to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Mark Brunell has played great football and was likely going to give Tennessee a difficult time as it was, but without McNair pushing the ball down the field, this game flips in favor of Jacksonville.
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This is a no brainer of a game. There’s no better team in the league right now than the Vikings. They lost Randy Moss in week 2 and his first game back he goes 5 for 198 and 2 TDs. Minnesota is dangerous without him, but with him it becomes all the more challenging to stop them. They currently are 4th in point scored, and they will probably improve upon that now that Moss is back. But they also have the #2 defense in points allowed. The Lions defense has done well this year as they’re 5th in points allowed and 9th in yards allowed. Even if they slow down the Vikings, their 30th ranked offense will not be able to move the ball against the Vikings defense. The Vikings are a lock this week!
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The Saints offense and defense are both 28th in points this year. They’re equally bad on both sides of the ball. In addition to that, they’re 31st in turnover differential at -14! Somehow they are a 4-5 win team, that may be one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. The Broncos have a good defense and a marginal offense. They’re 15th in points scored but 29th in yardage. Like the Ravens, it feels like their points are coming off turnovers and good field position. I would think Denver is the clear favorite here.
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The Bucs have won 3 straight and are currently the 2 seed in the NFC. They’re 3rd in points scored and 10th in points allowed. They have had quite a few injuries this year but that has not slowed them down as they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The 49ers are going through some growing pains at QB with J.P. Losman. He did have a good week this past week, but he had been benched in week 9. The leash is probably short with him, but after a good performance in week 10 I would imagine we see Losman at QB again. The Bucs should be able to defend that pretty easily, and I believe they are a lock this week!
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Not many would have predicted 4 straight wins with Jake Delhomme, but that’s exactly what has happened. Not exactly a gauntlet of teams during that stretch, but Carolina is solid and they managed to beat them by 2 points. This week will be a bigger test. They just beat the Raiders 38-16 in week 8, but Oakland has Brian Griese back. He was a bit rusty in his first game back in week 9 but they still pulled off a win against the Panthers. While I do think San Diego’s overall roster is better, I obviously prefer Griese to Delhomme. Divisional games are tough, but I’m giving the nod to Oakland here. A loss by the Raiders would put them back 4 games in the division, with their only hope then becoming a wild card. Since they lost their 2005 1st round pick when they signed Griese as a Match Eligible FA, they have to find ways to win down the stretch.
UPDATE!!
New Winner:
I was rooting for the Raiders this week, they've had a tough season thus far and don't have much to look forward to if things fall apart without that 1st round pick. In a game that I thought slightly favored Oakland with Brian Griese back, the Chargers pushed their chips into the middle of the table and swung for McNair. They've already made some in-season trades to strengthen their roster, I think this move bumps them to one of the frontrunners for the AFC Title this year.
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The Dolphins had a hot stretch where they were averaging over 30 points per game against the Bills, Rams and Jets, winning all 3 of those games. They came back to Earth in week 9 in a 7-14 loss to Arizona. The Seahawks are on life support. I thought they were a stronger team than they’ve shown us this year and perhaps this is a “get right” game for them. They have some difficult matchups down the stretch against the Bills, Cowboys, Vikings and Cardinals, if they have any prayer at reaching the post-season they have to win this game. Defensively both teams are fairly even, and they are in turnover differential as well. Seattle has a slight edge offensively at 16th in points scored compared to 22nd, but that difference is 1.9 points per game. The matchup preview favors Miami in 7 of the 10 categories, but at some point Seattle has to be due!
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Similar to the Dolphins/Seahawks game, the Giants are favored in 8 of the 10 matchup preview categories. Despite that I believe the Falcons are the better team. They’re 29th in points and 28th in yardage, but you can’t convince me a Michael Vick offense can’t move the ball better than Tony Romo. Romo is the most sacked QB in the league while he also leads the league in INTS. At 1-8 the Falcons really have nothing left to play for. Winning would push them out of the top overall pick, but figuring out what works would be helpful before they set their sights on 2005 and beyond.
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The Redskins have surprisingly rattled off 4 consecutive wins. Those games were against the Bears, Packers (with Favre injured), Lions and Bengals, so I don’t think they’ve figured it out quite yet, but you can’t knock teams for who they play. Good teams win the games they should win. On the flip side the Eagles have lost 3 straight against some tough teams in the Ravens, Steelers and Cowboys, so this is a bounce back game for them. Gibran Hamdan has played well for a 2nd year guy and from a talent perspective I think the Eagles have more pieces than the Redskins. Defensively both teams have performed very similar, but the Eagles have the advantage on offense as they’re 13th in points scored to the Redskins 20th.
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There was some conversation this week about the Packers remaining schedule and how they have the opportunity to stack some wins down the stretch. That is absolutely true, and it starts this week against a struggling 2-7 Houston Texans team. Barring a Brett Favre injury, or GM Brad Barber deciding to get Dave Raggone more time under center, this should be a blowout in favor of Green Bay. Still to play down the stretch are the Eagles, Lions and Bears in which the Packers should be heavily favored with tougher matchups against the Rams, Jaguars and Vikings. 9-7 could get them into the post-season, but they can’t screw around trying to develop their future QB, unless they’re content with missing the dance this year. The Packers are a lock this week!
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Another lock! The Patriots travel to Kansas City and look to bounce back against a loss to the Bills. They’re 1 game back in the AFC East but after the sweep by the Bills, they are essentially 2 games behind due to the tie-breaker. They host Baltimore next week and then have a 5 game stretch where they should easily be favorited in each contest. They have a realistic shot to be 11-5. Kansas City sits just 1 game back from New England, although none of those 4 wins are “sexy” by any means. Defensively they’re very similar and the Chiefs have benefitted from turnovers more. They’re +6 in turnovers, which has helped them to be 21st in points scored despite being 31st in yardage. I don’t see the Chiefs hanging with the Patriots for long in this one.
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