Week 11 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
Week 11 predictions 14-2
TOTAL: 102-58
Week 12 picks
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A gimme game for the Colts when they really need it. They’re battling the Jaguars for 1st place in the division. A loss by the Jags against the Vikings and the Colts can take sole possession of the division if they take care of business. They’ve got a nice 3 game stretch here against the Lions, Titans (without Steve McNair) and the Texans. They’ve got to win those games before they face the Ravens, Chargers and Broncos down the stretch, all 3 teams could give them a problem. The Colts are locks this week.
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The Bears have dropped 6 consecutive games and are now without Brian Urlacher, although he will be playing in the game against them! Dallas had a great win against the Ravens last week and have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. They have an opportunity to push for a top 2 seed in the NFC. Dallas is also a lock this week!
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I like the Bucs in this one, they’re playing really good football right now whereas the Panthers have cooled off a bit. Divisional games are tough to project. I think the Bucs are playing better on the season and are the hotter hand, but the Panthers could bounce back after their mid-season slump. On the surface it feels like this should be a no-brainer Bucs selection but I have a funny feeling this could be a dog fight.
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I was back and forth on this game as well. The Bengals were hot but really cooled off. There will be some bright moments with QB Carson Palmer but it’s always going to be an inconsistent path until he’s more developed. As crazy as it sounds, I think I trust Tim Couch more, and the Browns have a better chance of generating QB pressure to get Palmer off his mark.
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Another coin flip, the Titans trading McNair really turned what was an easy matchup into a difficult one, that’s the life of developing a young QB. I almost picked Houston here because Pennington is the better QB right now, but the Titans have a better overall roster.
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The Chargers are a lock this week! Acquiring McNair was a game changer, they’re a real threat in the AFC and should handle the Chiefs very easily. They’re the #1 seed in the conference right now bit with games against the Broncos, Bucs and Colts still ahead, they’ve gotta win the easy ones.
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The Vikings are the easy choice as they’re the best team in the league right now, but the Jaguars are legit. Brunell is a dude, and they’ve rattled off 4 consecutive wins. An upset is not out of the question here, but I have more faith in the Vikings who play well on both sides of the ball. The Jags have the 31st defense in points allowed. If it’s a shootout they have a chance but the Vikings should win this one.
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Cody Pickett getting injured may actually be beneficial for the Ravens if they roll with Jeff Blake, that 76 AWR is surely to be a boost over Pickett’s 63. Baltimore is 7-3 and winning with their ground game and defense as Pickett has a 66 QB Rating on the year with 12 TDs and 12 INTs. Blake could give them a much-needed boost in this game as they try to avoid back-to-back losses. They’re safe in their division but that would put them in a tough spot for a post-season bye. The Patriots snuck out with a W against the Chiefs last week. They’re 3-2 in their last 5, but they have been unimpressive in that stretch. Patriots GM Rob Stanley addressed the OL ahead of the trade deadline in hopes to find some more stability. I think from an offensive and defensive perspective the Patriots are the more dangerous team, but they’ve got to figure out their identity on offense very quickly.
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In the matchup preview the Eagles have the advantage in everything except rush offense, where they’re edged out by 0.1 yards per game. This seems like a slam dunk for the Eagles, they’re 12th in points scored, 13th in points allowed and have a net turnover differential of 0. Meanwhile the Giants are 27th in points scored, 23rd in points allowed and last with a turnover differential of -18. The Eagles are a lock!
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I would assume Donovan McNabb is the starter here, even though he is officially Questionable. If he’s not, then this would switch to the Redskins. Offensively the Steelers have been a disappointment this year at 22nd in points scored. Even the Redskins with young QB Patrick Ramsey is scoring at a better clip than them as they’re 18th in points. The Steelers have leaned into their past with a stingy defense, ranking 3rd in points allowed. The AFC North, mainly the Ravens and Steelers, are going old school with their play style. The Steelers defense should give the Redskins plenty of problems, and while Pittsburgh hasn’t been very productive on offense, I trust their offense to move the ball better than Washington.
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Michael Vick has quietly put together 3 good weeks and the Falcons won their first game since week 5. Yes, it was against the Giants, but you gotta start somewhere. They have another favorable matchup this week, and the schedule down the stretch isn’t very difficult. They have the opportunity to figure some things out. It stinks to lose draft position, but heading into 2005 with an idea of what works and what needs to be fixed is more important than having an earlier pick. They’re certainly more capable than their 29th ranked offense. The Saints have the 19th best offense in points scored, but I just don’t trust them. They have the 2nd worst turnover differential, that’s not a recipe for consistency.
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The Cardinals are 5-5, but not one of their wins is against a team ranked better than 20th. They’ve benefitted from a pretty soft schedule, and the schedule gets even softer as they face a Jets team that has traded a huge chunk of talent during this season. The Cardinals have a real shot at being one of the most unimpressive 9+ win teams in recent memory. They’re obviously favored to win this one, to the point that I believe they’re locks!
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The Dolphins have been snake bitten with injuries this year but it looks like they’re finally getting Rex Grossman back. They were hot for a 5 week period but have cooled off the last 2 weeks. They’re drawing the 49ers this week that appear to be back to starting rookie QB J.P. Losman. He has really struggled this season and despite foolishly trying to trade for him myself, I don’t see much growth this season. I have much more faith in the Dolphins, especially since they have a knack for getting hot at times.
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The Seahawks have underperformed this year, but I still think they’re a sneaky good team. I don’t have much confidence in this game, I feel like it’s ripe for a Seahawks win. Buffalo seems to win the tougher games and drop what appears to be the easier ones. The truth of the matter is this Bills team has been lucky and they could easily be a sub .500 team. I picked the Bills, but would not be surprised in the least if Hasselbeck throws for 400+ yards and 3 TDs this week. The Seahawks rush defense and turnover differential is their biggest deficiency, but can the Bills capitalize?
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I tuned in to the Broncos last week for the first time, and I did not like what I saw! Chris Simms looked absolutely lost and rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger was opportunistic throwing 3 TDs. The Broncos have run that gameplan for the last 4 weeks with some success, and it was just 1 game, but had me thinking they’re fraudulent. Brian Griese is back for the Raiders and I believe he can elevate them to play some competitive football. Last week was a defensive grinder so it’s difficult to get a read on their team. They need to get back to what was working a bit better before Griese’s injury.
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After playing the Rams last week, there’s few teams that would scare me more than that offense. The Rams lost Torry Holt but immediately replaced him with Santana Moss, who plays more like Randy. They can get into the shootout with the best of them. The Packers being a .500 team is a surprising, but some of that can be attributed to trying to develop Dave Ragone as they anticipate Brett Favre retiring this off-season. They dropped all 4 games that Ragone started, 3 of them were games they otherwise would’ve been heavily favored against the Giants, Lions and Redskins and potentially sitting at 8-2. I think both are excellent teams and have no idea who is going to win this game. The Jags/Vikings are the Game of the Week, but I think this is the true Game of the Week!
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