Primetime Football Articles

Playoff Simulator
By Tommy Collins
Special to primetime-football.com

I have gone through Madden and quick simmed until I got the winner that I predicted in each game for the rest of the season. This was done based on who I perceived to be the favorite, obviously there are upsets and some of the games are tough matchups that could go either way. For those in contention this is how it looked:

American Football Conference



San Diego Chargers

vs W
at W
at W
vs W

Final Record: 13-3 | Projected Seed: 1
The Chargers have one of the tougher remaining schedules for those in playoff contention in the AFC, but going 4-0 is a reflection of how I view them. I think they're the best team in the AFC and the clear favorites to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. The Steve McNair trade changed everything, they were a competitive team before the move, but having a QB who plays at his ability has elevated them to the cream of the crop. The Bucs are legit on both sides of the ball, and if there's a team left on San Diego's schedule that has the best chance to beat them, it's Tampa Bay, not the Colts. Indy is still a powerhouse as long as they have Peyton Manning and their other superstars, but they haven't played as well as I would have expected this year. They're 8-4 right now, but some of those games are just too close for comfort when they should be heavily lopsided in Indy's favor.


Buffalo Bills

vs W
at W
at W
vs W

Final Record: 12-4 | Projected Seed: 2
I have repeatedly said the Bills are fraudulent, and I still think they are. They benefit from an easier schedule these last 4 weeks, but those are typically the games the Bills lose. It's difficult to have them drop any of these remaining 4, except maybe that Pittsburgh game? They haven't performed up to the expectation I had for them this year, so it's hard to expect a sudden ability to play at that level in week 17 when they've been eliminated and perhaps looking ahead to the 2005 PFL Draft. Buffalo draws the Browns who desperately want to get rid of their QB, the Bengals with a 2nd year QB who has played well but is still inconsistent in his early years, the 49ers with a rookie QB and the Steelers who have the best QB of those remaining teams, but sitting at 5-7 and not playing good football. It's possible the fraudulent Bills are the 2 seed.


Indianapolis Colts

at W
vs W
vs L
at W

Final Record: 11-5 | Projected Seed: 3
The Colts actually have some tough games ahead. The Texans should be a gimme game, of course, but the Ravens defense is legit and could give the Colts some problems. Indy's defense isn't what it was last year, so if that offense bogs down it's a ball game. I still think they come away with the win there, though. The Chargers are the class of the conference, so the Colts drop that game before rebounding against a Broncos team that has really not played good football in recent weeks.


Baltimore Ravens

vs W
at L
at W
vs W

Final Record: 10-6 | Projected Seed: 4
The Ravens secure the final division crown on the back of their defense. Aside from the Colts, they play the 25th Giants offense, 20th Steelers offense and 26th Dolphins offense. The Ravens have the 5th best defense this year, they're going to give those 3 teams a hard time. I could see a scenario where Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, which would change this whole landscape. The Steelers sneakily have the 4th best defense, they've just been overlooked due to their record. I feel like the Steelers offense is better. The Ravens are 9th in points scored, but that is very misleading. Why? They're 23rd in yards and 29th in first down. They don't move the ball well, they're likely benefitting from field position and a +7 turnover differential.


New England Patriots

vs W
at W
at W
vs W

Final Record: 12-4 | Projected Seed: 5
Like the Bills, the Patriots have a soft remaining schedule and they should win out. They would have the same record as Buffalo, but Buffalo would have the tie-breaker over them in their two matchups. The Patriots at 5 seed could get a home game if they make it to the AFC Championship against the 6 seed, but it's unlikely they're in Foxborough this post-season. They are a dangerous road team, though, and could easily unseat whoever is in the 4 seed, most likely the divisional winner from the AFC North. I would be surprised to see the Patriots bounced in the Wild Card round.


Tennessee Titans

vs W
at W
vs W
vs W

Final Record: 10-6 | Projected Seed: 6
The Titans trading McNair altered the entire AFC landscape, and at first it appeared to be a dedication to progressing Brooks Bollinger. I think Bryan Mellon believes their roster is strong enough to win with Bollinger. He has played efficiently since he's been the guy as of week 10. He has QB Ratings of 80.6, 55.7, 77.4 and 82.5, which isn't bad for a second year QB. But the flip side of that is he has 574 passing yards combined across those 4 games and 1 TD. Tennessee is trying to play football the rest of the way like the Ravens have been this season by relying on their defense and run game. I predicted that they win out because these remaining 4 games aren't that difficult, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lose all 4, either. I think this 6th seed is up for grabs!


Jacksonville Jaguars

vs W
at L
vs W
at L

Final Record: 9-7 | Projected Seed: Eliminated - 7 seed?
I don't know which team that is eliminated would be the official 7 seed, sometimes Madden is funny when it comes to that, but I believe it's the Jaguars. As I said above, I think the 6 seed is open for business. The Jaguars have a good offense with Mark Brunell but their defense is like the parting of the Red Sea. The Packers won't have a problem taking them down, and I think the Raiders are better than their record indicates. They lost Brian Griese for a while this year and if they had him I think they could be contenders for a wild card spot. I see the Raiders knocking them off, and the Jags winning their other 2 games against the Bears and Texans, they just aren't competitive enough. If Jacksonville could beat Oakland, they could be 10-6 and pushing for that 6 seed.


Cincinnati Bengals

at L
vs L
vs W
vs W

Final Record: 9-7 | Projected Seed: Eliminated - 8 seed?
The Bengals having a winning season this year is a plus since they're still developing second year QB Carson Palmer. They start off this final 4 game stretch against two difficult teams, dropping them down to 7-7. But these last 2 games are winnable. The Giants aren't competitive and Cincinnati should be favorited in that contest. The Eagles are a difficult team to gauge, I think they win this game, but the Eagles could very well win it. If so, dropping the Bengals to 8-8 would really sink any hopes they could sneak into the playoffs and get them an extension onto their GM contract to continue building the team.


Oakland Raiders

at W
vs L
at W
vs W

Final Record: 9-7 | Projected Seed: Eliminated - 9 seed?
It's been a rocky year for the Raiders, they put all their eggs in the Brian Griese basket and lost him to injury for 4 games and went 1-3 during that stretch. The Saints were a winnable game there, and I think the Chargers game was as well. Eli Manning was injured and the Chargers were starting Jake Delhomme. A healthy Griese could've given them 2 more wins, they still drop that Colts game. But 2 wins is the difference between potentially being 9-7 and 11-5, they wouldn't win the division but they'd be safe as a Wild Card team. Now they're fighting for a chance at the post-season, they've got nothing to lose as they don't own their future 1st round pick. They need to win 3 of these next 4 and get some help to sneak in. They have to win that Jaguars game and I think that one will give them some trouble.


Denver Broncos

vs W
at W
at L
vs L

Final Record: 8-8 | Projected Seed: Eliminated - 10 seed?
The bottom has been falling out for the Broncos lately, beating the Chargers, thanks to knocking Steve McNair out of the game very early, gave them some a breath of life, but they're on life support. They should've dropped that game, making it 4 consecutive, and unless the Titans and Colts are resting starters, they're almost definitely dropping those games. They need to beat the Dolphins, which have gotten hot at times, and the Chiefs. Both are winnable games, the Dolphins probably more problematic than the Chiefs, but the Broncos have to play better to have any hopes of reaching the playoffs. I don't see 8-8 getting a team in, they really have to stun the league by knocking off Tennessee or Indy to have a chance.



National Football Conference



Minnesota Vikings

vs W
at W
vs W
at W

Final Record: 15-1 | Projected Seed: 1
The Vikings lost to the Cowboys week 1 and haven't lost a game since. It's been an impressive stretch of games for them this year. I think the Seahawks are trending up, but I don't think they're going to make it too difficult for the best team in the league. That Packers game should be interesting, and it's possible the Vikings drop that game, but they are still the 1 seed in the NFC and getting that first round bye.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

at L
vs W
vs W
at W

Final Record: 13-3 | Projected Seed: 2
The Buccaneers are one of the hottest teams in the league. That matchup with the Chargers could potentially be a Super Bowl preview, assuming that Minnesota falters in the playoffs. This is a team built to win now, similar to the Vikings. They've got key playmakers in their late 20s or into their 30s, so their championship window is now. Aside from that Chargers game, I think they handle their remaining 3 games rather easily and end with a 13-3 record and first round bye. What a difference a year makes, there wasn't a significant roster turnover, but that Drew Bledsoe offer seemed to do enough for them. Perhaps the other teams should've made reasonable offers on Bledsoe to prevent something like this.


Dallas Cowboys

vs W
at W
vs W
at W

Final Record: 12-4 | Projected Seed: 3
The Cowboys have a VERY favorable schedule down the stretch here. Their biggest challenge is probably that Eagles game. I don't think any of these teams should give them difficulty, but 3 of them are divisional games and they can be funny. It's very reasonable to expect Dallas to easily handle these last 4 games, which would be a nice rebound after dropping their last 2 games. They miss out on a 1st round bye but would draw the 6th seeded playoff team, giving them the best chance to advance to the divisional round.


St. Louis Rams

at L
at W
vs L
vs W

Final Record: 9-7 | Projected Seed: 4
The Rams losing QB Kurt Warner really hurts. I think Marc Bulger is a quality QB, but you just can't expect the offense to get close to the same level of production they once had. They're 28th in points allowed, and during Bulger's first start he went 4-20 against the 49ers. I think they're going to significantly struggle down this stretch, and the NFC West is completely wide open. I think the Panthers beat them and I favor the Eagles as well. The Rams should beat the Jets, but that Cardinals game makes me wonder. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona beats them. They've been winning this season despite not being all that impressive, it would probably knock St. Louis out of the playoffs if it happened! I didn't expect the Rams to be the division winners, I picked the games and Madden determined the playoffs, so I was a little surprised myself.


Green Bay Packers

vs W
vs W
at L
at W

Final Record: 10-6 | Projected Seed: 5
The Packers are starting to get hot at the right time. The Vikings have been so good this year, so it's unlikely the Packers would've topped them in the division, but Green Bay should have a much higher record if they started Favre all year. They were risking not making the playoffs, but their schedule for the final 7 games was very favorable. They could potentially beat the Vikings in week 16, but that will not change anything for Green Bay, unless Minnesota lost out, which isn't happening barring a Culpepper injury. Green Bay is playing for the 5 or 6 seed only, and is a team that should advance to the divisional round. I don't think any team in the NFC West would give them problems, with maybe exception to the Seahawks if they're on a heater.


Carolina Panthers

vs W
at W
at L
vs W

Final Record: 10-6 | Projected Seed: 6
The Panthers have a favorable schedule down the stretch with that Kurt Warner injury. As mentioned above, I think the Panthers win that game. The Falcons have been playing better, except when Michael Vick was injured and the Bucs teed off on the Falcons backup QBs. That divisional game could be tricky, but I think they win that one and should easily win that Saints game. The Bucs are red hot, so I would except Tampa Bay to be the victors in that matchup. This gives Carolina a 10-6 record and Madden determined that Green Bay is the 5 seed with the same record. But after winning the division last year, Carolina is back in the post-season in year 2!


Seattle Seahawks

at L
at W
vs W
vs W

Final Record: 9-7 | Projected Seed: Eliminated - 7 seed?
The Seahawks were a mystery for me this year. I thought they would've been 2nd to the Rams in the division, but they struggled for the first 9 games and going 3-6 during that stretch. They are showing signs of a resurgence and have won 3 straight, with back-to-back wins against the Bills and Cowboys. That is a sign of a team that is ascending! In week 14 they draw the Vikings, and it's difficult to pick any team to beat them, but a hot Seahawks team could potentially do it. The other 3 games are all winnable, with the Cardinals potentially giving them a tougher time than the Falcons and Jets. A 9-7 finish could put them in the playoffs, especially if the Rams falter.


Arizona Cardinals

vs W
vs L
at L
vs L

Final Record: 7-9 | Projected Seed: Eliminated - 8 seed?
While some teams have a soft schedule down the stretch, the Cardinals do not. They open against the 49ers, that is a very winnable game, but then follow it up with a game against the Rams. I had picked the Rams to win that game, but it is probably the lowest confidence I have of any pick in this article. I think the Cardinals could win that game, and doing so would shake up the playoff picture as I would imagine it bounces St. Louis from the 6 seed. Without Kurt Warner I think the Cardinals defense has a real good chance to win that game. Arizona then draws a Seahawks team that is red hot lately, they're catching them at a bad time, and I think Seattle wins that game. Unless the Bucs are resting starters week 17, I think that game heavily favors Tampa Bay. Surprising the Rams and facing the Bucs backups could put them at 9-7, assuming they still lose to Seattle, and give them a crack at the division. If they won out they should steal the division.


San Francisco 49ers

at L
vs L
vs L
at L

Final Record: 6-10 | Projected Seed: Eliminated
Officially in the hunt with a 6-6 record, the 49ers are not a strong team and they have a tough slate down the stretch. The Cardinals stingy defense will give them problems and the Redskins have played okay recently. I think both of those teams would be favored to win. Then San Francisco has the Bills and Patriots, and those teams would be heavily favored. They would end the season on a 5 game skid after dropping their game last week to the Marc Bulger-led Rams. At 6-10 they would probably be somewhere in the 12 to 13 seeding range.
Discuss this Article in our Forums Replies - 3 :: Views - 66

Primetime Football Articles