Week 13 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
Week 11 predictions 14-2
Week 12 predictions 9-7
Week 13 predictions 11-5
TOTAL: 122-70
Week 14 picks
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The Falcons dodged a bullet when Michael Vick avoided serious injury, but did they really? There’s something to getting it going to end the season so they have a kickstart on things next season in terms of offensive effectiveness, but at this point the Falcons are out of the playoffs and could benefit from a higher draft position. I respect Peter for still trying his best to win! While the Falcons have been playing some better ball recently, when Vick is healthy, I have a hunch the Raiders are due.
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I don’t think this will be a close game. The Giants are 31st in turnover differential, and the Ravens feast on teams that turn the ball over and benefit from that good field position as they don’t move the ball particularly well. The Ravens defense is going to give Tony Romo and the Giants fits in this one. Baltimore is a lock this week.
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The Browns are itching to get rid of Tim Couch, it’s been many weeks since he put together a respectable performance. The Bills defense can be very shaky, but they should be able to outscore the Browns and their 28th ranked offense. The Bills are #1 in points scored and Browns 29th in points allowed, it should open the door for back-to-back weeks of scoring big points, although a little birdy tells me they may emphasize the run game this week. The Bills are locks.
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The Cowboys need a get-right game after dropping their last 2 games. No blemishes for losing to Seattle, they’re getting hot and Matt Hasselbeck is a legit QB. I have no explanation for why they underperformed as long as they did. That Chicago loss is ugly, though, and Dallas needs to get back on track. The Saints are 24th in points scored and 27th in points allowed, this is the perfect matchup for Dallas to right the ship and finish out strong. Dallas is a lock this week.
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The Packers make it 4 straight victories in this one. The Lions won’t be able to fend them off for long. Their defense isn’t bad, but their offense can’t convert points. They’re 30th in points scored and -8 in turnovers. The Packers should get an early lead and continue to expand on it all game. The Packers are locks this week.
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Indy is the obvious favorite here. Chad Pennington hasn’t been the difference maker the Texans were hoping he’d be. They need to be aggressive this off-season in free agency, otherwise those picks will be wasted as Pennington will be regressing by the time they add a supporting cast. Their offense is 22nd, defense is 32nd and they’re 32nd in turnover differential at -14. The Colts have had some real close games lately against the Bears, Lions and Titans. The Lions win was actually by 12 points, I just expected them to win by more than that. There’s still time for Indy to get firing on all cylinders, they’re dangerous when they do. The Colts are locks this week.
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The Jaguars are good on offense but really struggling on defense. That works out well for them this week as the Bears aren’t good on offense as they’re 31st in points scored. While the Jaguars are giving up over 26 points per game, I don’t expect the Bears to be able to do that with their QB play. I assume Craig Krenzel will play this week, but it really doesn’t matter. The Bears defense is 24th in points scored, but 5th in defensive yardage and 2nd in passing yardage allowed and 18th in QB Rating allowed. Their points scored is more likely to be a reflection of their poor offensive play and giving good field position to their opponents, which will benefit Jacksonville. The Jags are locks this week.
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The Seahawks are getting hot as we head down the stretch and they challenge for a playoff berth, but the Vikings are looking to cool them off. Minnesota is the best team in the league, but Seattle could give them a run for their money. There are 2 teams left on Minnesota’s schedule that could challenge them, the other is Green Bay.
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The Patriots and Bengals both have won 3 consecutive games. Something has to give this week. I trust the Patriots more, obviously, as Tom Brady is a premier QB. The Bengals are 8th in points allowed and 11th in QB Rating allowed, so it won’t be a walk in the park for New England, but they will still be able to score. The Patriots are 9th in QB Rating allowed, I expect them to give Cincinnati a difficult time as they’re 18th in scoring offense and 20th in passing offense. Carson Palmer is still raw so this will be a difficult matchup for him. The Patriots are locks this week.
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The Dolphins are capable of playing good football and had a good 4 game stretch from weeks 5-8 before they cooled off. Nothing changed from a gameplan perspective, so it must’ve been a flukey good run for them. They’ve lost their last 4 games to Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco and Buffalo, and lost their last game by 46 points. The Cardinals and 49ers are beatable teams but lost by 7 and 10 points, respectively. I think this game favors Denver as they’re probably in that same tier with those 2 teams. Miami is 32nd in points allowed and is a get-right game for Denver’s offense that has struggled lately. Denver’s defense shouldn’t have a difficult time holding off Rex Grossman and the Dolphins.
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The Steelers I thought should’ve been Trade Deadline sellers but they stayed put. They’ve got some veterans and at 5-7 now I don’t see them making the playoffs, they would need to win out and I don’t think that’s going to happen. For this week, at least, they should take care of business against the NY Jets. Darryl Breckheimer listed them dead last in his Power Rankings. The Steelers should be better than 20th in points scored, but like the Falcons and Seahawks, sometimes you just have funky seasons where things don’t work. It'll work for them this week though, which helps the Jets in pursuit of the #1 overall pick.
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The Cardinals defense has given teams a difficult time this season as they’re 2nd in points allowed. Their offense has done enough to get them to 6-6. The Cardinals have a shot at making the post-season, as does San Francisco. With the Kurt Warner injury the NFC West is wide open. I think the Cardinals can take the first step in their path to a playoff berth here as they stifle the 49ers offense led by JP Losman. He is capable of having an occasional good game, but I don’t think it’ll be this week against this defense.
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The Rams offense was lost after losing Kurt Warner. Marc Bulger stepped in and completed just 4 passes on 20 attempts for 134 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. It was an ugly performance against a 49ers defense that is now 21st in QB Rating allowed. The Panthers are an easier matchup at 29th in QB Rating allowed, but I’m not expecting a 180 this week, I think the offense struggles with Bulger the rest of the way. The Panthers desperately need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, so the Warner injury couldn’t have come at a better time for them. They’re 10th in points scored and the Rams are 28th in points allowed. Carolina should be able to put up points and I don’t see Bulger and the Rams keeping up with them.
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This is going to be a terrific matchup, and a potential Super Bowl showdown. The Bucs are playing red hot football, but so are the Chargers. The Bucs are 4th in points scored and facing the Chargers who are 3rd in points allowed and 3rd in QB Rating allowed. The Chargers are 11th in points scored, but for context, they’ve played multiple different QBs this season. McNair has been great all year. His first game for the Chargers wasn’t great, but he looked very good against the Chiefs before being knocked out after just 2 passes (for 65 yards and TD) against Denver. I trust the Chargers to find the offense that allows him to continue playing at a high level, but the Bucs defense is no joke. They’re 2nd in QB Rating allowed and 7th in points allowed. It’s truly a strength vs strength matchup and the real Game of the Week!
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Washington gets a rematch after playing Philadelphia in week 11. They lost that matchup 17-23 after giving the ball away 3 times, 2 by Patrick Ramsey INTs. Gibran Hamdan played mistake free football in that game and did well. Ramsey has had a rough 3 game stretch, he’s 26-57 for 402 yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs over that time period. The Eagles are 10th in points allowed and 6th in QB Rating allowed, it’ll be a difficult matchup for Ramsey again. Hamdan was turnover free against the Packers last week but was under 50% completions and took 7 sacks. The prior week he completed just over 32% of his passes for 126 yards and 4 INTs. He hasn’t played well since that Washington game, but I think he rebounds here and does enough to get the victory.
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Brooks Bollinger has been efficient since he’s been named the starting QB for Tennessee, but he strikes fear into no one. The Titans should continue to focus on their rushing attack and defense. Defensively, the Titans are in great shape this week as the Chiefs are 29th in points scored and 24th in rushing yards allowed. The Titans should be able to put up enough points to keep this game out of reach for KC as Byron Leftwich and company struggle to move the ball.
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