Week 14 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
Week 11 predictions 14-2
Week 12 predictions 9-7
Week 13 predictions 11-5
Week 14 predictions 11-5
TOTAL: 133-75
Week 15 picks
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After back-to-back defensive shutouts by the Giants defense, they turned around and made Cody Pickett look like a good QB, allowing 278 yards, 2 TDs and a 112 QB Rating. Shutouts are hard to come by, and a stroke of luck, of course, but still an impressive feat. Tony Romo has been consistently bad all season with very little signs that he’s going to develop into a starting QB. The team needs an influx of talent, but so does Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers are an aging team that could’ve been sellers at the trade deadline but they remained quiet. I trust Donovan McNabb more than Romo and the Giants, even though Pittsburgh hasn’t played well this season either. The AFC is littered with chaos, having the Steelers get hot and win out would add another wrinkle to it all.
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Betters were livid last week when QB Patrick Ramsey didn’t play despite the Questionable designation. GM Scott Gardiner was one of those who appeared surprise that Drew Henson started the game. That has to change this week with Ramsey officially Probable. Neither J.P. Losman or Ramsey have played particularly well this year. This is a coin flip game, I am leaning Washington as they have a better QB Rating allowed, making it a difficult matchup for Losman. It’s tempting to roll with San Francisco here due to that significant turnover differential difference, -10 for Washington compared to +5 for San Fran.
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I would have to check, but I feel like I get burnt every time I pick Carolina. This is another close game, in my opinion. The defenses are very similar in terms of QB Rating allowed and Sacks. The Panthers are a top 10 offense in yardage, so that’s what I’m leaning on. I’m typically someone who looks at efficiency over total yardage numbers, because those numbers can be misleading. But we have a handful of teams that are scoring at a high rate despite not moving the ball well, which I suspect is due to good field position and a strong defense. In this instance with the defenses being similar, I’m rolling with a team that has moved the ball more consistently.
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It was a shit show in the AFC during week 14. Almost the entire playoff field lost and made the final 3 games even more interesting than they would’ve been. Nothing was more surprising than the Houston Texans taking down the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans were ahead pretty much the entire game, and the injury to Chad Pennington didn’t slow them down. David Carr came in and threw 4 TDs against the Colts. Signs of life for Houston? Perhaps, but there’s no way I can pick against them against the Bears when they just took down a top contender for the Super Bowl this year. There’s no injury designation for Pennington this week, either.
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The Bengals are HOT right now, with 4 consecutive wins coming against the Steelers, Browns, Ravens and Patriots. That’s a very difficult stretch and after pulling off these victories they’re now the #2 seed in the AFC and have taken over the division. Meanwhile the Bills have sustained another bad loss, this time against the Browns. Tim Couch started the game 11-12 before cooling off and going 9-21 the rest of the game, but the Bills offense was anemic and despite having a shot at the end, they dropped another stinker of a game. The Bengals aren’t going to be an easy W, but the Bills have not lost back-to-back games yet so I’m expecting a bounce back.
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The Packers have gone from potentially missing the playoffs to being one of the hottest teams in the league. The Jaguars have an offense but their defense has allowed a ton of points this year, that doesn’t match well against a Packers offense that is 1st in yardage and 6th in points scored. The Jags could potentially hang with them on offense, but the Packers defense is more likely to slow down than the Jags than the opposite. Green Bay is a lock this week.
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The Vikings are the best team in the league and they’re drawing a very easy matchup. They are reportedly not resting starters since Tampa Bay is going to make them finish the season out to get the #1 seed. The Lions will not stand in the way if the Vikings starters play. Minnesota is a lock this week.
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The Chargers had a tough game against the Bucs last week. I thought it would be much closer but quickly turned into a blowout in favor of Tampa Bay. They get to rebound against the Cleveland team that has had some ups and downs. They just beat Buffalo last week, but I still don’t think they’re a good team. The Chargers should handle them pretty easily, barring some Couch magic that we saw last week. San Diego is a lock this week!
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I thought that the Seahawks could potentially make their game against the Vikings interesting last week. I was wrong. They lost by 19 when Minnesota dropped 32 points in the 2nd half. It was a 7-0 game at half-time until the Vikings woke up. Seattle was riding a 3-game win streak heading into that game and this is the perfect bounce back against a team that doesn’t want to win as they’re focused on the rebuild. Seattle is a lock this week!
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It was ugly but the Cowboys beat the Saints last week, thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns by Derek Ross and Troy Polamalu. That accounted for 14 of their 17 points, the offense managed just 3 points on the day and 133 yards of total offense. A win is a win, though, and Dallas gets to figure out what went wrong against another inferior opponent this week in the Eagles. Gibran Hamdan had a great game last week against Washington, throwing for 300 yards, 2 TDs and a 108.5 QB Rating but he is very inconsistent, as all young QBs are. He actually played well against Dallas in week 10, throwing for 300 yards then as well. I think the Cowboys get it done, but it may not be pretty, again.
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I think Bulger is a quality backup QB, but I don’t like the offensive gameplan with him. Running the Rams playbook is asking too much, in my opinion. I would be focused on a ball control style of offense that features Marshall Faulk from here on out, but GM Justin Walstead has not changed their offensive philosophy. If that holds true, I think that plays right into Arizona’s hand as they have a stout defense. I don’t know how, exactly. They’ve got 3 very good players in the secondary, but the rest of the defense is not appealing to me. Nevertheless, it has proven consistently that it works, and I think that defense gives the Rams a fit this week and Arizona sneaks out the win and stays alive in the NFC West title chase.
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Despite the Saints giving the Cowboys a tough game last week, this one is a no-brainer for the Bucs. They are one of the hottest teams in the league after rattling off 7 consecutive wins, and just beat the very good Chargers team by 32 points! The last time these two teams met, Tampa Bay won 43-7. This game should be over after the first quarter! Tampa Bay is a lock this week.
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The Chiefs lost their starting QB Byron Leftwich. He has not played well this year, he’s actually taken several steps backward in his performance, but he’s better than Bradlee Van Pelt. Van Pelt is expected to be the starter against the Broncos, and there is nothing good about that. On the other side, Chris Simms also has not played well, but the defensive unit has played much better than Kansas City’s. The Broncos should win this one convincingly and keeps them in the AFC playoff hunt.
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This is a tough one. Since Brooks Bollinger has taken over at QB the Titans are 3-2, with losses against the Jags and Colts, which are respectable. Bollinger isn’t being asked to do much, which is perfectly normal for a young QB. I think the Raiders are better than their record indicates and could sneakily give Tennessee some trouble. I trust the Raiders QB Brian Griese more than Bollinger. I think the Titans have a very strong supporting roster, but my gut tells me Oakland wins this one.
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This should be a good matchup. The Ravens have a great defense and the Colts are the Colts. Even after they lost to the Houston Texans, they’re still one of the frontrunners in the AFC this year. I think Peyton Manning and the Colts will stress the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense is anemic, but the Colts defense is not what it was last year, so this is a good matchup on both sides of the ball this week. I trust Peyton Manning with the ball in his hands late in the game. They have not lost back-to-back weeks since weeks 2 & 3. They’ve already lost control of the division to Jacksonville, a loss this week would really box them into a corner.
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The Dolphins are dead. Their 3-game hot streak has been followed by a 5 game skid in which they’ve been outscored 48-150. They made enough noise to make the path difficult for the Bills and the Rams, but have now climbed back into their shell for the rest of the season. The Patriots should smoke Miami this week, but a resurgence to end the season would really shake things up in the AFC, especially since they’re due to play 2 teams currently projected to be in the playoffs and a Browns team that could potentially get in. I don’t see it happening this week, though, as New England is a lock!
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