Week 15 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
Week 11 predictions 14-2
Week 12 predictions 9-7
Week 13 predictions 11-5
Week 14 predictions 11-5
Week 15 predictions 8-8
TOTAL: 130-78
Week 16 picks
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This is an awesome matchup! The Packers just lost in OT to the Jaguars last week. That Jacksonville offense is no joke and the game script worked in favor of Jacksonville. If they get into a game where moving the ball is tougher, a team with a better defense will clamp down better than they will. This game had a combined 65 points, so no defense was present, they thrive in shootout situations. The Packers cannot be any better than 5th seed, so not only are they playing for that, but they also can play spoiler a little bit. The Vikings want the #1 seed, and after losing in a stunner to the Lions, the Bucs are now projected to be the #1 seed as they both share a 12-2 record. If the Vikings want it they will have to continue playing their guys. If it’s me, I’m happy with the #2 seed and first round bye. This is a coin flip game, they’re both playing excellent football right now.
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The resurging Raiders are looking for a playoff ticket. They’ve won 4 straight and while the last 2 wins weren’t impressive, wins are wins and you take them how you get them. The Chiefs are still without QB Byron Leftwich. Their backup is Bradlee Van Pelt and he can’t stay out of the medical tent with his 5 INJ rating. Last week they had to have the Punter finish the game for them, and still somehow won with him! Expect QB Akili Smith to be the 3rd guy off the bench, but regardless, none of those QBs are going to play well. This should be the Raiders 5th consecutive W. Oakland is a lock this week!
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Speaking of that Chiefs game last week, it was the Broncos who dropped the game to the Punter. He completed just 4 of 13 passes in the game, and did just enough to push the Chiefs past the finish line. The previous week he was 2-19 for 31 yards and sacked 4 times. He is not a game changing magician. The Broncos offense is broken. Chris Simms has 9 passing TDs on the season paired with 15 INTS and 46 Sacks. We saw Tommy Maddox come in for an injured Brooks Bollinger this past week. Bollinger does not have an injury designation, but even if Bollinger, Maddox and Chad Hutchinson were hurt, leaving Tennessee down to their Punter, could you trust the Broncos to muster enough offense to win the game? Tennessee is a lock this week!
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The Bengals were on a 4-game streak before dropping their week 15 matchup to the Bills 34-17. Carson Palmer was under duress for much of the game before they played some catchup at the end, while the Bills offense was cruising. They’re still a sneaky good football team and were coming off 4 good wins, including games against the Ravens and Patriots. This week they’re playing the Giants. Tony Romo leads the league in INTs with 29 and has taken the 5th most sacks this year. Carson Palmer has actually taken more sacks this year, 45, but has looked the part a lot better, as he should as the former #1 overall pick. The Giants defense is 11th in QB Rating allowed! That’s pretty impressive considering they’re 31st in Sacks, so the pressure isn’t getting home. Despite what may be a difficult matchup, I trust the Bengals offense more.
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The Lions defense is 15th in points allowed but it just doesn’t feel right. They are 6th in Sacks, but dead last in turnovers and dead last in QB Rating allowed. I don’t get how teams aren’t scoring on them. The Bears are quite the opposite. They’re last in sacks, but 8th in QB Rating allowed and tied for 3rd in turnovers. I think they have the better defense, and since their team has an offense, I’m rolling with the better defense. It appears the Bears are on auto pilot as rookie QB Craig Krenzel has returned from injury but Gus Frerotte continues to play. I don’t think that’s intentional; I think Bears GM Nathan Jones is just submitting the same lineup and not thinking twice about it, similar to what the Chiefs.
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This is another great game. The Chargers had a flukey loss to the Broncos where McNair is 2-2 for 65 yards and a TD only to get injured and see Jake Delhomme struggle to move the offense. They still only lost by 3. The Bucs game was a blowout and they only beat the Browns 13-3 this past week. I may have been a bit quick to anoint the Chargers as the best team in the AFC. McNair was dominant for Tennessee, and he’s still yet to throw an INT this season, but his numbers just aren’t as good with San Diego. They’ve got to figure out what clicks for their offense, a combined 356 passing yards over the past 2 weeks is what you would expect from your backup. The Colts had a good bounce back win against the Ravens 22-10. Peyton didn’t have a great day in the box score, but the Ravens defense is great so you will take those results. They beat up on Cody Pickett, sacking him 5 times and holding him to a completion % of 40. I think the high scoring attack of the Colts is going to outpace the Chargers right now, much like what we saw with the Chargers/Bucs game.
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Jacksonville is on a tear, winning 7 of their last 8, with their only loss during that time span against the Vikings. They just took down the Packers in overtime, which is an impressive win. Their offense is hard to stop, and I don’t see the Houston defense standing in their way. The Jaguars are currently holding a lead in the AFC South and the current #2 seed in the AFC. That week 17 game against Oakland could be the deciding factor for the AFC South, first round bye and Oakland playoff livelihood, a made-for-TV game! Jacksonville is a lock this week!
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While they’ve lost their last 4 games, the Saints have been playing some tough football. Week 13 they lost to Carolina by 4, Week 14 lost to Dallas by 5 and this past week lost to Tampa Bay by 4, a combined 12-point differential across those 3 losses, and it was 2 defensive TDs provided 14 of the 17 Cowboys points. Things could be much different if one or two things go differently in those games, so I don’t think they’re that far off. Rookie Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for over 200 yards in his last 3 games, he was knocked out of the game against the Falcons in week 12 after throwing just 6 passes. The Falcons did win this past week, but Michael Vick was just 10-21 for 125 yards and 0 TDs. You have to wonder if Atlanta moves on from him after this year as he’s barely outplaying guys like Cody Pickett and Roethlisberger. I think the Saints pull through and get a much-needed W this week.
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Donovan McNabb is starting to play like a good QB, finally. Over his last 3 games he’s averaging 258 yards and 2 TDs. The downside is he’s played against the Jaguars, Jets and Giants, so we should pump the brakes on thinking he’s arrived in Pittsburgh. The Ravens defense is legit and despite dropping their game last week to the Colts, it’s not a bad loss. The Colts are a top contender in the conference. The Steelers I think will have trouble moving the ball, and while Pickett never seems to play at an impressive level, the team still finds ways to win despite that. I think the Ravens are the safer bet. I think it’s too little, too late for Pittsburgh to make the post-season this year as a 9-7 finish is unlikely to be good enough for the 6 seed.
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The Buccaneers have now moved up to #1 seed in the NFC after they squeaked by the Saints last week. Billy Volek’s magic has run out and he has turned back into a pumpkin. He’s averaging 160 yards and 1 TD and 1.75 INTs over his last 4 games. From weeks 1-10 he looked like a stud! The Bucs are going to be a very difficult matchup for Volek and the Panthers. They only lost last time by 7, I don’t see this game being that close. Tampa Bay is a lock this week!
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The Tom Brady injury is really bad timing while they compete for the division and potential first round bye. Luckily they’re drawing the Jets and 49ers over those final two games, so they still are alive in the hunt. It’s now time for David Garrard to step in, and I don’t think this week will be problematic for them. The Jets are a cakewalk, but we’ve seen some crazy games this year so there’s never a guarantee. The 49ers game next week could give the Patriots some trouble, but they’ve got to take care of business this week before they worry about that.
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Buffalo handled the Bengals this past week and bounced back from their disappointing loss to the browns. They should’ve handled Cleveland in the same manner. With New England hot on their tail they cannot afford to drop either of their remaining 2 games. I don’t think J.P. Losman and the 49ers offense will give them much difficulty, although the Bills defense has been shredded several times this year. There are times the Bills offense can be stagnant and the 49ers have some talent on the defensive side, this may be one of the weeks they lean on Ricky Williams to control the game flow.
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The Cowboys have had a rough 4-week stretch of games with disappointing losses to Chicago and Philadelphia. Seattle is playing well so you can’t get too bummed out about that. Their win against New Orleans was a defensive effort as their offense contributed just 3 of their 17 points in that game. Now that Dallas has played their way out of a first round bye, they’re reportedly resting some starters. They’ve secured the division and have no chance to be the #1 or #2 seed, so it’s a smart decision on their part. With that expectation, I think the Redskins can come away with the W here. Washington has dropped 5 consecutive games don’t haven’t been blown out during that time. They have an opportunity to sweep Dallas this year.
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The Cardinals defense has been fantastic this year. Last week they had the perfect game script for a win by holding Marc Bulger to 169 yards passing, 38.7 completion % and no touchdowns. Unfortunately for Arizona they didn’t have much of an offense either. Finding ways to move the ball with Charlie Batch is proving difficult. On the other side, Seattle is playing some excellent football and making a case for a playoff berth. Their offense will be tested against the Cardinals. I’m sure it will be slowed down, but I don’t know if it will be slowed down enough for Arizona to outscore them. I’m rolling with Seattle here in a lower scoring game.
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Just after I declared the Dolphins dead, they hung with New England through the first half last week, trailing 23-24 at half-time. New England outscored them 20-7 in the second half. It could have been more had Tom Brady not been injured. David Garrard threw 11 times for 70 yards and no scores. I think Miami is content with losing out the rest of the way, while the Browns have actually played some strong football lately. They hung with New England until the 4th Quarter in week 13, beat Buffalo week 14, and lost by 10 to San Diego last week. This will be a much easier matchup for them and one I think they will be favorited to win.
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Three consecutive wins with Marc Bulger and I still don’t trust the Rams. He has not played well in any of those games, going 33/89 for 584 yards, 3 TDs and 4 INTs. The Rams have a lot of inherited talent that is pushing them across the finish line and are doing it in spite of Bulger. Gibran Hamdan has played better than Bulger during that same timespan, including games against Green Bay and Dallas. I trust Hamdan to perform better, and while the Rams have a better supporting cast, I just can’t trust Bulger. The Rams get a week 17 gift against the Jets so even if they lose this game there will be no negative playoff implications for them as long as they win that game. They have clinched a playoff berth and a win in week 16 or 17 will clinch the NFC West, they will not have an opportunity at a first-round bye. A loss this week likely forces them to play their starters week 17.
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