Week 16 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
Week 11 predictions 14-2
Week 12 predictions 9-7
Week 13 predictions 11-5
Week 14 predictions 11-5
Week 15 predictions 8-8
Week 16 predictions 8-8
TOTAL: 138-86
Week 17 picks
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The Ravens should have an easy path against the Dolphins. Neither team has much to play for as I don’t
think the Ravens can make the playoffs, but it’s possible. The Dolphins finished 6-10 last year and at best they can match that record this year, so they’re going to lose a contract year. Barring a playoff berth the Ravens also will lose a contract year. I would imagine they’re playing to win still as the draft position game isn’t going to be significant enough, and as I said, there’s hope they could be in the post-season. I declared the Dolphins dead, then they gave the Patriots a strong first half before beating Cleveland. They aren’t absolute pushovers, but the Ravens defense should give them fits.
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I’m not super confident this week, the only times I really have been this year were against teams we should have easily beat, but we lost. So perhaps the confidence level is a sign that we are okay. Anyways, the Steelers are a legit team. I know I said I thought they’d be sellers at the deadline and it sounds like Wade is going to sell this off-season, it is an older, thin roster. I do think they’re capable of playing much better. McNabb has played better in the second half of the season and the Bills defense as a unit isn’t very strong. If the offense poo-poos like it did against SF, Pittsburgh will win big this week and potentially make the playoffs.
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I’m picking the Panthers here but I think this game could go either way. The Panthers are playing for the post-season and the Saints have nothing to play for except to be spoilers. They’ve dropped 5 consecutive games and had shown considerable signs of improvement until last week’s game against Atlanta. I think the Saints will be better next year. For now, the Panthers have the advantage in most areas, but they aren’t playing as well as they were earlier on in the season. Billy Volek is still struggling and hasn’t had a good performance since week 10. If they make it into the playoffs they won’t survive long, but obviously getting that +1 contract year is the goal for GM Daren Roberts.
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I think the Packers team is legit and as I said in previous articles, their record doesn’t reflect their ability. Those games they started Dave Ragone hurt them in the standings, but they’re a dangerous team. Almost every team has some bad losses, and while GM Brad Barber doesn’t believe they have “it” this year, they don’t have many bad losses. Only the Redskins game could be considered bad, everything else was within 1 score, and their back-to-back losses against the Jags and Vikings by a combined 4 points aren’t any sort of indictment against them. The Packers are a top team in the NFC and should certainly handle the Bears convincingly.
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The Browns have avoided losing a contract year now that they got to 6 wins, but they’re obviously not playing to win this year. A loss would actually help them secure an earlier draft pick. The Texans are going to lose a contract year, but since they traded their picks for QB Chad Pennington, they can’t improve their draft position, just the new owner, the New York Jets. I always liked Chad Pennington and trust his talent more than Tim Couch. The Houston offense is better than Cleveland’s, but their defense is pretty brutal. I don’t think the Browns will do much against it, though.
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The 49ers are a tough team defensively but their offense hasn’t put them in great spots. The Patriots without Tom Brady are going to level this game a bit. I think the Patriots still win it, but I don’t know how easy it’s going to be for them. Garrard did okay last week, but it was against the woeful Jets. I would imagine San Francisco gives him a bit more of a challenge. The Patriots should still be safe, but if they want a chance at the division they have to hope for a win and a Bills lose. The #2 seed would also be in play if the Jaguars also lost in that scenario.
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Both teams with young QBs that have played pretty well considering the ups and downs that go with that. The Eagles have won 3 straight, including games against the Cowboys and the Rams, both of which are playoff teams. The Bengals have dropped their last 2, and the last one is probably the one that hurts the most, losing to the lowly Giants. If they can’t find a way to beat the Eagles, they may lose out on the playoffs. The Eagles have been better offensively and are 3rd in QB Rating allowed! That’s certainly better than Cincinnati at 19. That’s going to be the deciding factor and the door opens to the AFC North with a Philadelphia win.
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I have been calling for the Rams demise due to Marc Bulger’s poor play. Last week they lost to Philly by 18 points, Bulger was 8-17 for 90 yards and 2 INTs. He was outplayed by 65 OVR Jonathan Quinn. The Jets are not good and have secured the #1 seed, so Bulger’s poor play really won’t hinder them this week. The Rams will win the NFC West. I don’t see them advancing beyond the Wild Card round without Kurt Warner, though.
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The Lions have won their last 2 games to give them 6 wins and prevent a GM contract year loss. I don’t think Detroit would put up much of a fight, but they’ve got nothing to battle for in this one now. Tennessee has a low chance of making the playoffs but there’s still a chance so they need to play to win. I wonder if they’re going to be a bit more pass heavy this week as Bollinger is averaging only 150 passing yards/game and has 4 TDs to 3 INTs this progression period. They went all-in on his development after trading Steve McNair, so let it rip!
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The Vikings had a big win against the Packers last week to keep their #1 seed hopes alive, and they did it with Brock Huard as Daunte Culpepper was knocked out of the game. Huard actually outplayed Culpepper and won them the game. Now they get the Redskins who have struggled this year. As long as Minnesota is playing their starters, and I believe they will as they want that #1 seed, this should be automatic, but so was the week 15 game against Detroit, so you never know!
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The Bucs also dodged a bullet last week as they lost Drew Bledsoe for the game. Like Culpepper, it was just for the game, but how coincidental that the two teams playing for the top seed had a QB scare. Does it make them reconsider playing their starters when they are guaranteed a first-round bye? I know the bye is what would matter most to me, the #1 seed vs #2 seed only becomes a thing if you make it to the Championship Game. It’s not worth the risk to me. Anyways, the Cardinals defense is good and they could keep the Tampa Bay offense off the scoreboard more than they’re accustomed to, but they won’t be able to keep up with the points they do score. Arizona doesn’t have much of an offense, now that they’re discussing trades, you have to think they’re emphasizing that side of the ball this off-season.
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Seattle has won 5 of 6 with their only loss coming to Minnesota during that time. They won by 14 against a tough Cardinals defense. Now they get a struggling Atlanta team. Seattle should get into the playoffs, but they have to win to make sure they do. A loss coupled with wins by Carolina and Green Bay and they’re out. The Rams are likely going to win the division with their easy week 17 game so Seattle is fighting for a wild card spot. They’re one of the hotter teams, and a team that I think can be dangerous in the post-season. I think they’re locks.
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The Colts are in the thick of it trying to reach the post-season. Denver doesn’t have anything to lose as they don’t possess their 1st round pick next year and are eliminated from playoff contention. They could throw the kitchen sink at Indianapolis just to play spoilers, or they could lay down for them, you never know how they’re going to play this one. Indy being in this spot is a surprise. Losing to San Diego is understandable, but that Houston game hurts, it’s their only bad loss of the season. It’s hard to bet against Peyton Manning and as usual, I won’t.
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This game also has big playoff implications. The Jags currently have the #2 seed and they need to win to hang onto that. If they lose, they’ve still secured a playoff spot and the division, they just won’t get a bye. A win by Oakland and they are playoff bound. This is one of the more appealing matchups of week 17. When the Jacksonville offense is hot it’s very difficult to keep pace with them. Their defense is a liability, but they’re 10-5 and it doesn’t seem to matter. The Raiders defense is better, but they’re only average at 15th in QB Rating allowed, I don’t think that slows down Brunell and the Jags. Mark Brunell has been injured several times this year, I think that’s their only realistic chance to slow them down.
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The Chargers should still win this week despite resting Steve McNair, and potentially others. They have locked up a first-round bye and have announced they’re not going all-in for the #1 seed. I think that’s a smart move. Worry about the Championship Game if/when you get there. The Chiefs have not been very competitive down the stretch, dropping 5 of their last 6 games, with their only win during that time coming against Denver, thanks to their Punter making a crazy 62-yard TD pass. Leftwich should be back this week, but I don’t think it will make much of a difference, the Chargers roster is real good and balanced.
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The Cowboys are also benching Drew Brees again this week, but despite doing so last week he ended up playing as their backup was hurt. They’ve now signed 2 QBs with Jeff Garcia being out hurt for 2 weeks, so I would imagine Brees is 3rd on the depth chart this week. The Giants pulled off a stunner last week against the Bengals. It was Tony Romo’s first career 300 yard passing game. He’s now had two pretty decent games in a row. As bad as he’s been this year, I think he outplays whoever the Cowboys QB is. Their offense hasn’t played well with Brees, let alone some street free agents that have been passed over all season.
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