Week 17 Recap
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Week 1 predictions: 11-5
Week 2 predictions: 10-6
Week 3 predictions 4-10
Week 4 predictions 6-8
Week 5 predictions 13-1
Week 6 predictions 7-7
Week 7 predictions 5-9
Week 8 predictions 12-2
Week 9 predictions 9-5
Week 10 predictions 11-3
Week 11 predictions 14-2
Week 12 predictions 9-7
Week 13 predictions 11-5
Week 14 predictions 11-5
Week 15 predictions 8-8
Week 16 predictions 8-8
Week 17 predictions 13-3
TOTAL: 151-89
Wild Card picks
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QB Tom Brady is officially “Questionable” but I don’t believe he plays! This has happened before, and did, in fact, happen this year to Washington with Patrick Ramsey. Usually, we see Questionable and think they’re playing, but in this instance, I don’t believe he plays this week OR next week! The Patriots will be forced to start David Garrard, who is in no way related to esteemed Formula One driver Jean Girard. Garrard hasn’t been the most efficient, but he’s averaged 279 passing yards the past 2 weeks. Yes, one of those games was against the Jets, but the 49ers were the other game and they aren’t terrible. Garrard has thrown 3 INTs to his 3 TDs in those 2 games, which isn’t that far off from Tom Brady’s 23 TDs to 17 INTs. I think what Garrard faces this week, on the road, is going to be far more challenging for him. The Ravens are #1 in sacks with 65, they’re #1 on defense in the Red Zone, 5th in takeaways, 12th in QB Rating allowed, and 1st in defensive points scored. This is going to be a very difficult matchup. The Patriots are 10th lowest in sacks allowed, but with a veteran QB like Tom Brady, you shouldn’t see that number of sacks from a 90+ AWR guy as they’re dumping the ball before contact or as they’re being hit. Even when the Patriots were running the Broncos playbook, Brady was getting sacked at the same rate he was with the Rams playbook. I think this points to a potential advantage for Baltimore to disrupt the pass game.
Everybody knows Baltimore has a rookie QB who the team has won in spite of, not because of. But since Week 11 against the Cowboys, Pickett has played well for a rookie! He is 76-139 for 1378 yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs and 18 sacks during that stretch. That’s a 54.6% completion percentage, 230 passing yards/game, 1.67 TDs/game, 0.67 INTs/game. The downside would be taking 3 sacks/game, but that is to be expected from young QBs. The Ravens are scoring 26 pts/game during that stretch. While the team obviously has a terrific defense, I think Baltimore can be a difficult out with average to above average play on offense.
These teams played one another in week 12 with the Patriots winning 34-10, but without Cody Pickett who was injured that week. Jeff Blake was 13-33 for 197 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs in the game. Tom Brady handled the Ravens efficiently, completing 15/24 for 246 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs and 1 Sack. Everything will be different this time around as the Patriots don’t have their QB while the Ravens have theirs. I was actually interested to see if the Ravens would roll with Jeff Blake as he has 76 AWR compared to Pickett’s 64. There is no playoff progression, so rolling with the veteran makes total sense. After seeing Blake’s performance, I may be inclined to stick with Pickett and see how he fares. I believe the Ravens will win on the back of their defense as they’re able to get after Garrard, and Pickett’s improved play propels them to the finish line.
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Since returning from injury Brian Griese has played efficient for the most part. If you take out the week 16 Chiefs game, where he only threw 3 passes (1 for an INT!), he is 74/130 for 1010 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs and 11 sacks. He has completed 56.9% of his passes for 202 yards/game, 1 TD/game, 0.6 INTs/game and 2.2 Sacks/game. Not Earth shattering by any means, but efficient. The run game has done well, with HB Casey Moore rushing for 720 yards and 7 TDs over that same timespan. He’s averaging 120 rushing yards/game and 1.17 TDs/game during that span. Subtracting the Week 16 game without Griese, from weeks 12-17 the Raiders offense is averaging 29.6 points/game. Over the course of the entire season this would be tied for 4th best in the league. This is surprising! Until week 17, it looked like the offense played complimentary football, either Casey Moore went off or Griese did well, which is perfect for them.
Mark Brunell has had a great season for the Jags. The team started out planning to roll with rookie 3rd rounder Matt Mauck with Brunell filling in when he was often injured. When he played that offense was humming! The Jags are 9-4 in games that Brunell threw at least 10 passes and averaging 26 points/game in those games, over the course of 16 games that would be good for 7th best offense. It’s been all offense for the Jaguars, though. They’re 27th in QB Rating allowed, are 1 one of 2 teams that haven’t scored a safety or TD on defense/special teams this year, 31st in takeaways, 28th in sacks and 25th in Red Zone defense. They live and die by the hands of Brunell, which is not a good recipe for playoff football!
These two teams did meet this year, last week actually! The Raiders flipped the script and went with the Rams offense which provided beneficial. Brian Griese threw for 291 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, while lead back Casey Moore ran for 190 yards and 2 TDs. The Raiders defense contained Jacksonville, allowing them to convert on just 27% of their 3rd downs and Oakland controlled Time of Possession 25:52 to 18:8. The Raiders aren’t great on defense, 18th in QB Rating, 18th in Sacks and 14th in Takeaways, but it’s better than Jacksonville and I think can be a difference in this game. The Raiders offense is also surprisingly hotter at the moment.
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This is probably the least exciting game of the week for me, sorry Justin & Daren! The Rams without Kurt Warner and Tory Holt aren’t the same team, obviously. The Panthers
limped into the playoffs. Billy Volek hasn’t played well since week 10 against the 49ers. In his last 8 games, a half-season, he is 82/184 for 1061 yards, 6 TDs, 9 INTs and sacked 10 times. The backups during that time have only thrown 7 passes, so this isn’t an issue with sustaining injuries. He’s averaging 133 passing yards, 0.75 TDs and 1.125 INTs per game during that span. That is not a QB that is capable of leading a team in the post-season. I have been critical of Marc Bulger since he’s taken over for Warner, but I just don’t think he plays
that bad. Carolina is averaging 15 points/game during these last 8 games. In the last 5 games of the season that Bulger started, they’re averaging 23.8 points/game. Bulger certainly hasn’t played well, but he is playing better than Volek.
These two teams did meet in Week 14 when Bulger was starting, so it’s a good picture of how they matched up. Bulger was 17-38 for 281 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Volek has only throw for 250 or more yards four times this year, one of them was in this previous game against the Rams. Volek only completed 13/34 passes on the day, but they were a bunch of deeper throws, completing a 52 yard TD to Justin McCareins, a 53 yard pass to Troy Brown, 32 yarder to Steve Smith and a 25 yarder to Eric Johnson. Those 4 passes accounted for nearly 60% of Volek’s yardage on the day on 12% of his passes. He completed just 38% of his throws on the day. The Rams have been consistent in their offensive and gameplan usage to this point, while the Panthers have switched their defensive playbook the last 2 weeks but with the same pass & aggression %s, so if everything holds, I would expect the Rams to come away as the victors in this one.
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With an injured Tom Brady and the Colts and Seahawks both missing the playoffs, I would argue that the Packers are the most dangerous Wild Card team in the post-season this year. The #3 seed Cowboys didn’t draw the weaker team when they matched up against the #6 packers. That seeding for the Packers is influenced by QB Dave Ragone going 0-4 for them this year, or they would easily be the #5 seed and Dallas would be drawing the much more favorable Carolina.
The Cowboys were once 8-2 before they cooled off and struggled to find their mojo. They finished the season going 3-3, with losses against the Bears, Seahawks and Eagles, none of which are playoff teams, although Seattle is a very good team. While Drew Brees didn’t start their week 16 game against Washington, he threw all but 2 passes in the game. He sat in week 17 as the team had no incentive to risk injuries to their starters and preferred to be the #4 seed. From weeks 12-16, Brees was 67/131 for 862 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs and sacked 12 times. That averages out to be 51% completion percentage, 172 yards/game, 1.2 TDs/game, and 1.4 INT/game. It’s no surprise that Dallas struggled over the final 1/3 of the season. Surprisingly, Favre has cooled off during his final 5 games as well. He was 86/159 for 1087 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT and sacked 8 times. The mistakes are low, but only 4 TDs in 5 games is not what you would expect from him, nor the 217 yards/game he averaged during that time. The Packers averaged 23.6 points/game during this stretch, the Cowboys 20.4 points/game during weeks 12-16.
These teams squared off in Week 7 with the Cowboys edging out the Packers 33-30. This was one of those 4 starts by Ragone. Brett Favre was 9/18 for 208 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INT in the game filling in for Ragone after Ragone already had 22 passes on the day for only 164 yards and no scores. This was still only a 3 point game! It wasn't until Ragone was knocked out of the game that the Packers were able to move the ball, scoring 21 of their 30 points in the 2nd half. With a healthy Brett Favre starting, the Packers should be able to move the ball effectively all game.
I think this game is a bit more evenly matched than it looks on paper as neither team has been playing their best football down the stretch, but give the edge to Green Bay.
