Mock II| PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | | 1.01 |  | QB Alex Smith | The Jets have been expected to draft a QB at 1.1 ever since they landed the top draft spot and traded QB Chad Pennington during last season. They have not acquired a starting QB this off-season and there have been no rumors of them doing so, so a rookie it is! The PW is going to dictate who that guy is, but pre-skew I like Alex Smith’s 71 AWR and age (22). | | 1.02 |  | QB Aaron Rodgers | The Bears have traded for QB Brian Griese, but at age 30 and 87 THP, he’s not the long-term answer for them. As it was astutely pointed out, you don’t know when you’re drafting this high again, so now is the time to get their QB of the future. It’s between Derek Anderson and Aaron Rodgers. Anderson’s THA is better, but that 95 INJ, 99 TGH and being a year younger gives Rodgers the edge. | | 1.03 |  | QB Derek Anderson | I have heard mixed things about the Redskins. They traded up with Atlanta to get to 1.03, my first instinct was it was for QB, so I’m sticking with it. At age 26, Patrick Ramsey is only 64 AWR. As a 24-year-old rookie, Derek Anderson is 65 AWR. The progression formula was built to allow rookies to progress easier, he will be mid 70s by the time he’s age 26 like Ramsey. Surround him with veteran talent and bite the bullet. By the time Ramsey develops he will be regressing. | | 1.04 |  | WR Braylon Edwards | Fresh off a Super Bowl win, the Chargers could go in a variety of directions here. SS Antrel Rolle was in strong consideration here. At 22, 6’3”, 92 SPD, 69 AWR, 95 ACC, 88 CTH, 94 JMP, he’s super polished, like a 22-year-old vet. | | 1.05 |  | SS Antrel Rolle | Taking the 4th QB here is a reach, and a WR doesn’t make much sense as they have Kassim Osgood and new FA additions Joe Jurevicius and Terrell Owens. Those vet WRs were signed to help a young QB, and barring a trade back, that will be Ben Roethlisberger. Rolle is a STUD, so I doubt Neal is upset that things didn’t play out the way he hoped. | | 1.06 | | CB Mike Hawkins | A few different avenues the Jets could go here, but in my eyes the premier positions are QB, CB, LE and WR. It’s easier to get a WR than CB and the DEs in this class aren’t strong. Hawkins is built like a safety at 6’1”, 71 STR with 95 SPD, 94 AGI, 95 ACC. | | 1.07 |  | WR Vincent Jackson | Like the Jets they could go a few different ways here, like OL. It would be difficult to pass on someone like Jackson who is 22-years-old, 6’5”, 90 SPD, 61 AWR, 95 AGI, 96 ACC, 80 CTH. I’m sure teams would be itching to move up and get him if he made it this far. | | 1.08 |  | MLB Alfred Fincher | MLB Keith Brooking is fine, but at age 30 so his career is gearing down. Fincher is a stud at 85 SPD, 82 STR, 60 AWR, 90 AGI, 92 ACC, 80 TAK. He’s a dude that plays with his hair on fire. | | 1.09 |  | LOLB Lorenzo Alexander | Real tempted to go CB here but they signed CB Ahmed Plummer and Will Allen and Will James are alright. Matt Jones is also tempting, but with Zuriel Smith and Reggie Williams it’s not the biggest need. Getting the best OLB in the class who looks like an absolute stud can strengthen a defense that needs to be good while Tony Romo develops. | | 1.10 |  | WR Matt Jones | Positions are wide open for the Browns. Finishing at 1.10 kept them out of the running for the top 3 QBs so Tim Couch stays. Could see them going CB or OLB here, but after losing Andre Davis and not signing any replacements, the Browns elect to pair Larry Fitzgerald with Matt Jones. | | 1.11 |  | WR Larry Brackins | The Chiefs brought in HB Travis Henry and TE Alge Crumpler but did not boost their weak WR group. Brackins is the last of the 6’5”+ guys with speed. They could go with a field stretcher here as well, but I would think they want someone to make Byron Leftwich’s job a little easier. | | 1.12 |  | LT Michael Roos | The 49ers lost some guys but I think they go OL here and try to protect QB J.P. Losman, who took 51 sacks on just 257 pass attempts. If this is the first OL off the board in the actual draft I would be surprised, but getting your pick of the litter is great at 1.12! Lots of choices here, I picked the most athletic guy that was also very pro ready (68 AWR, 95 PBK, 85 RBK). | | 1.13 | | CB Marlin Jackson | The Giants pass on a CB the first time and somehow land the 2nd CB off the board. WRs were also previously in consideration but they’ve been picked through already. They’ve got serviceable CBs, but Jackson is a long-term guy that can be a cornerstone of the defense. | | 1.14 |  | LOLB Shawn Merriman | The Ravens have had to move a lot of good, veteran talent this off-season. They’re in the market for MLB, OLB, CB and WRs, and said they aren’t spending a 1st on a NT! I could see them going CB here. They’ve got MLB Bart Scott so they aren’t desperate there, I think OLB is their most pressing need. Running a 3-4 (I presume), they like size and STR, in addition to the athleticism that everyone covets. Merriman checks all the boxes. | | 1.15 |  | ROLB Brady Poppinga | The Bills could use a LOLB, FS, maybe a WR. Of those positions OLB has the best talent at this spot. Poppinga is only 21 years old and has 85 SPD/ACC with a 6’3” 252lbs frame, similar size to that of last year’s LOLB Sedrick Hodge. | | 1.16 |  | RT Adam Terry | The Bengals roster is very good, I think they could target OL here as they’ve got some aging guys and their GM played in the trenches himself. Terry is 79 SPD, 95 STR, 82 ACC, crazy athleticism for an OL! | | 1.17 | | RT Jammal Brown | The Browns got their QB of the future at 1.02, now it’s time to protect him. You won’t find a more polished rookie OL in this class. The athleticism isn’t as good as most GMs want, with 61 SPD, 97 STR, 52 AGI, 66 ACC. Many GMs think of that as a guard. But 75 AWR, 92 PBK, 93 RBK as a rookie is insanely good and could make up for his lack of athleticism compared to other elite tackles. | | 1.18 |  | QB Andrew Walter | The Panthers have a good roster, so now is the time to develop their QB of the future. 29-year-old Billy Volek is 76 AWR, 90 THP, 85 THA, his life as a starting QB is very short lived. Carolina just traded LE Julius Peppers, but don’t think they’re replacing him in this draft. Walter is raw, but 22-years-old and good THA at 87, so they can spend all their progression points on boosting that 55 AWR. | | 1.19 |  | QB David Greene | Seeing the 4th QB off the board just 1 spot in front of them is crushing for GM Tim Miller. After trading Brian Griese to move up from 1.29 to 1.19, it’s obvious the Raiders are going QB. They just need to hope there isn’t a run on them before they get to the podium. Greene is similar to Andrew Walter, 56 AWR, 89 THP, 85 THA and 1 year older. I could see them going with a higher SPD guy since Tim has a weird fascination with scramblers. | | 1.20 |  | C Richie Incognito, Jr. | GM Rock Hewko loves super athletic guys who are like unicorns. He hasn’t been making many moves this off-season, just 1 trade and no FA signings. His OL could use some reinforcements and neither Center rostered is a guy that can be a reliable piece to build around. Incognito is 6’8”, 335lbs, 79 SPD, 95 STR, 71 AGI, 82 ACC, he could be moved anywhere on the line with some position change purchases. | | 1.21 | | CB Stanford Routt | The 2nd pick they acquired from trading Julius Peppers, after they traded those picks to Minnesota for CB Dennis Weathersby, I could see the Panthers finishing their investment into the secondary. Daren clearly likes size in the secondary, Brandon Browner was tempting because of his 6’4” frame but not sure how the 85 SPD would be received. Routt is 6’1”, 93 SPD, 90 AGI, 92 ACC, he will be universally liked. | | 1.22 |  | RT Calvin Armstrong | Since acquiring QB Steve McNair the Jaguars have been pretty quiet. They’re bringing back LG Maurice Williams, but I see a glaring hole at RT. Armstrong’s blocking skills aren’t as polished with 74 PBK and 77 RBK, but he’s 6’7”, 320lbs, 63 SPD, 94 STR, 75 AGI, 77 ACC. That athleticism is very attractive and a veteran QB should be able to dump the ball to avoid sacks and help progress whoever it it is playing the position. | | 1.23 | | MLB Lofa Tatupu | The needs for Buffalo don’t match up great with what’s left. MLB London Fletcher was put on the block this off-season but was eventually removed. Perhaps he gets put back on the block with this selection, or they move one of them to LOLB? The option is there. GM Tom Collins once had Tatupu on one of his teams so there’s a nostalgic feel to this selection, too. | | 1.24 |  | RT Daniel Loper | There aren’t many needs on the Broncos. They’re shopping some OL and think maybe they’re looking for an upgrade in the draft. Loper is 21-years-old, which is a nice selling point. He has the size and athleticism, it’s just the 48 AWR that’s the biggest detractor, but I think GM Anthony Fernandez would be okay with that. | | 1.25 |  | RG Elton Brown | Similar to the Broncos, the Eagles have a real solid roster and a young QB. They don’t have a RG on the roster at all right now, and with a young QB I think you emphasize being a bit more pro-ready over athleticism, but athleticism is still desired. Brown fits that at 58 AWR, 81 PBK, 80 ACC. I was split between Brown and Logan Mankins here. | | 1.26 |  | LOLB Derrick Johnson | The Steelers will need to rely on defense as they appear to be rolling with Kyle Boller at QB, or the newly signed Trent Green. Their LB group isn’t the strongest and could use an upgrade. Johnson doesn’t have the SPD, but has the size and 94 AGI/87 ACC. He’ll be quick but won’t have that top end speed, but it’s a solid pick this late. | | 1.27 |  | MLB Pat Thomas | Tampa Bay’s offensive line is not sexy, but, somehow, they were very productive last year. They’ve been quiet this off-season and haven’t had any significant losses. I could absolutely see upgrading the OL, but GM Ian Coyle may not rock the boat since it worked last year. They could also use a #1 WR in that possession role, but their LB group is uninspiring, to me at least. For a team that could be scoring a lot of points again, the defense is going to need to make some stands. | | 1.28 |  | CB Ron Bartell | After trading Brian Urlacher, the Cowboys think the class is strong and deep and could be replaced but they got hit quite a bit. They have a veteran group in the secondary, and it worked last year, but eventually will need long-term answers. The 4th CB off the board this late would be a surprise, especially since he’s only 21-years-old and 6’1” 95 SPD. | | 1.29 | | HB Eric Shelton | The Bears brought in some OL help, so that appears to be taken care of. I’m not seeing a lot of needs for this team, with some competent QB play they could be competitive in 2005. I think upgrading over HB Anthony Thomas would be ideal, I have no idea who will like what at running back as it’s rather weak, but a 6’1”, 246lb HB is solid. He’s only 85 SPD, but 78 STR and 92 ACC. We just saw a similar HB get signed to a 5 year, $25m contract this off-season. | | 1.30 | | LT Anthony Alabi | As I mentioned above, I think the Broncos are looking at OL and they double dip at the position group. Alabi is a bit raw at 49 AWR, 72 PBK, 70 RBK, so he’s ideal for the left side while he develops. He has 60 SPD, 90 STR, 77 AGI, 84 ACC, which is excellent value this late in the 1st. | | 1.31 | | HB Ronnie Brown | I’m not sure what Jets GM Christopher Hinch likes in a RB, I know it’s not going to be anybody currently on their roster. They lost HB LaMont Jordan and didn’t sign him back, he’s a bigger bodied HB with STR, so perhaps they prefer the athletic homerun hitter? Ronnie Brown fits that bill, he lacks STR at 59, so he’s likely to be a boom or bust kind of guy, but someone who could break the game open on occasion. | | 1.32 | | C Jason Brown | It looks like a shift toward older, higher AWR guys on the OL and secondary for the Cowboys. I’m not sure if that’s intentional or prioritizing other positions first. Brown is 21-years-old, 66 SPD, 96 STR, 70 ACC. That’s excellent for a Center in this league. He’s 46 AWR, but the blocking skills aren’t bad for a rookie at 84 PBK and 79 RBK |
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