I broke something in stealing the format and I’ve spent too much time on this to care to fix it:) | PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | | 1.01 | | QB Alex Smith | The Derek Anderson hype is building, but I still have Smith atop the class and going to New York. The potential difference in awareness combined with being 2 years younger is a bit much to ignore for me. Smith has the potential to start with an AWR in the mid 70s, with would even the meh 87 THP, and even slightly less, is something you take and work with. As seen the early years of PTF, it’s been difficult to progress the young signal callers, with a number of teams, including myself, giving up on their own projects. Combine that with being only 22, he’s pretty much a sure thing. I think it’s easier progressing a QB with higher awareness, which I value much more than THA.
| | 1.02 | | WR Braylon Edwards | The Bears smelled blood in the water after the Vikings traded away Culpepper and the Packers were fishing for offers on Favre so they went out and dealt for veteran QB Brian Griese from the Raiders. This complicates things. Their roster has pieces to compete now that will hit regression soon, so from that standpoint, I understand skipping the rookie QB and going for it. Edwards is the most polished WR in the class and would be in a similar mold, if not better, than former 1st round WR Andre Johnson. It’d be a great young duo and immediately something to worry about if you’re an NFC North foe. He checks all the boxes and hits the ground running with his vet QB in year 1.
| | 1.03 | | QB Derek Anderson | So Washington apparently has a deal in place if their guy isn’t here at 3, which leads me to believe it’s a QB on their radar, despite aiming to compete with Dallas and Brees this season. But Patrick Ramsey is 26 with 64 AWR—he just isn’t making it in time before regression, barring a miracle. So Anderson it is, who’s two years younger, and likely with a higher THA and AWR to start.
| | 1.04 | | WR Vincent Jackson | The Bears switch up w the Griese trade sent a little anxiety this way but ultimately it’s still Jackson for San Diego, and long as he doesn’t skew down, I think Jackson is the best wideout in the class. You can’t add height in training camp, and he’s an XL 6’5”, 230lbs. He’s only 22, has solid awareness and CTH to start as well. While his STR looks a bit lacking at 66, I don’t think it matters that much with his + RBK at 52, so he should make an impact in the run game too. Starting alongside WR Plaxico Burress should instill fear in opposing defenses. They will have drives where that length has them make plays where it feels like they’re unstoppable. Eli Manning needs all the help he can get after missing the majority of last season with a injury. Throwing to big man Jackson seems like a really safe target to help him make up for the lost time.
. | | 1.05 | | WR Matt Jones | If there was a QB worthy of allowing the Saints cut their losses w last year’s 2 round pick Big Ben then I believe they would seriously consider it, but at this point, it doesn’t appear to be the case, even if Aaron Rodgers is still on the board. Though signed veteran WR Terrell Owens, Donte Stallworth was traded away to Philly recently, leaving a long term spot open alongside 6’5” Kassim Osgood. Jones is giraffe among wideouts at 6’6”. So now we’ll have two teams starting a pair of jumbo wideouts in New Orleans and San Diego. The premium on big corners might be trending up real soon.
| | 1.06 | | WR Larry Brackins | The Jets already acquired veteran QB Eric Moulds for their rookie QB, so they make risk take someone a bit raw but a huge ceiling. At 6’5”, Brackins can be that guy. He’s got 93 SPD and ACC to pair with that height to make him a potential star long term, as his AWR needs work. Add some training camps and he’ll go a long way into regression too.
. | | 1.07 | | FS Antrel Rolle | I initially had a middle linebacker mocked here in Pincher, but Miami has since signed another MLB (Paris Lenon) in free agency and traded for former MLB Brian Urlacher of the Cowboys, who’s on his 3rd team in less than a season. Rolle is the best player available and fills a need whether he stays at free safety or is moved to cornerback. That 99 SPD/96 ACC at 6ft translates well at either but he’d be especially valuable at corner.
| | 1.08 | | OT Michael Roos | I think Atlanta would love to draft a receiver here, and if one of the other big guys pan out with their private workouts, it might be them selected here. But as of now, Roos looks hard to pass up and seems to be the best player available. Current RT Todd Weiner just hit 30 and is on the last year of his deal. While he’s been serviceable, he hasn’t been anywhere near dominant, and that’s what Roos would be in a short time. He’s got all the tools from movement skills( 63 SPD, 76 AGI, 88 ACC) to excellent PBK/RBK/AWR(95/85/6 . Set Roos at RT for the next ten seasons and forget it.
| | 1.09 | | MLB Alfred Fincher | The New York football Giants signed former Browns MLB Andra Davis to a reasonable deal. While he may end up a stop gap depending on who’s available here, in this scenario, Fincher is too good to let go by. He’s got elite attributes with 85 SPD, 82 STR, 90 AGI and 92 ACC while only 22. His AWR is decent enough at 60 as well as his TAK at 80. If you wanted to nitpick, he’s a bit on the shorter side at 6’1” but still has everything necessary to be a highly productive starter, if not All-Pro.
| | 1.10 | | CB Ron Bartell | The Browns had multiple injuries at the position and although they used a 2nd round pick on a corner last year, they can use another. Bartell has great size at 6’1”, 210lbs with 95 SPD and 93 ACC. He’s only 21 as well so he has time to work on his game and put a couple of training camps under his belt. He has shut down potential in the future though. As a bonus, he can return kicks very well (99 KR).
| | 1.11 | | OT Jammal Brown | Kansas City snagged a running back in Travis Henry to help shoulder the load but they also need to add more talent for their QB Byron Leftwich as the WR corps currently is very much lacking. Well, maybe next pick. Here, they select the most polished OT in Brown, with his great 75 AWR and 92/93 PBK/RBK. Current RT Tait hasn’t been doing so hot the past two seasons, and he’s hit 30, and he’s making nearly 5 million. It’s a good time to move on and secure their next RT who is plug and play even at the premium spot on the right.
| | 1.12 | | MLB Pat Thomas | Current MLB Derek Smith is on the wrong side of 30 and now has 74 SPD, meaning it’s time to move on from the vet. Thomas has a very respectable 83 SPD, 89 AGI, and 84 ACC but what’s enticing is his 76 AWR to start. If things go unchanged or get better with a private workout, the 22-year old Thomas is a very safe bet to be a long term starter performing at a high level.
| | 1.13 | | FS Jim Leonhard | G-Men double up on a defense, this time plugging a hole at free safety. Leonhard is undersized (5’8”) and lacks awareness currently(49), but his 96/99 SPD/ACC combination proves hard to pass by. He will help minimize the big plays after the catch with his speed and be helpful in run support as he gets to the line of scrimmage pretty quickly. What he lacks on those 50/50 balls he will make up by being all over the field, which will lead him to pile the stats and progress faster than usual.
| | 1.14 | | OLB Shawn Merriman | Baltimore is lacking severely on the outside linebacker department and the 6’4” 261lb Merriman helps fill that void. He’s 22 with pretty good speed (82 SPD/88 AGI/83 ACC) and obviously great size, ideal for a 34 defense which the Ravens have made aware they’re looking to build as they shop for a nose tackle. It could be Derrick Johnson or another lesser known name here but of course this all depends on the private workout.
| | 1.15 | | OLB Derrick Johnson | I did consider the idea of Rodgers here as Buffalo needs a future QB but I’m not buying it this year. I can’t imagine giving up a future 1st in signing DE John Abraham then potentially losing games you should have won. A-Aron is 23 with lowish THA so it’s not like youd want to part time him much anyway. With multiple picks in the first, I think they go BPA at a position of need, and outside linebacker comes to mind. Buffalo has that converted 195lb corner playing linebacker right now— that’s how desperate things look on paper. Johnson is another of the notable linebackers in the draft with excellent speed(82/94/83 SPD/AGI/ACC). Only 22, he also had solid AWR and TAK to begin(64/79). It’ll be interesting to see how the AGI ends up and whether it gave a clue as to where the rest of the speed traits fall.
| | 1.16 | | OC Richie Incognito Jr | I believe I had a cornerback originally slotted here but upon further review that looks unlikely as the talent there is good enough to hold up another season. Cincy is currently running a 6th round pick at center and last season wasn’t very good. I think they upgrade tremendously with Incognito Jr, who despite being only 21, should come in a play well from day 1 with his 74 SPD 98 STR 73 ACC 64 AWR and 85/86 PBK/RBK. Who doesn’t want their very own crazy dude on the OLine anyway?
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| PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | | | 1.17 | | CB Carlos Rogers | 28 year old current starter Jerry Azumah is holding out thus far, looking for a new deal. On the other side, former second round pick Asante Samuel grabbed 6 INTs last season but I don’t view him as a starter, either. Ideally you want someone faster than 86, but either way, Rogers has a safe floor. He’s got 65 AWR at 21 years old so if they invest some love and let him play early, he can be 90 SPD/80+AWR/95ACC after 3 seasons, under 25. I think that would make the 6’0 corner worthy of a mid-first round pick.
| | 1.18 | | OT Adam Terry | Panthers can go a number of ways so they go best player available. He’s not quite the freak Locklear is, but the 21-year old Terry might be as close as it gets. At 6’8”, 335lbs with 79 SPD 95 STR 71 AGI 82 ACC, he can be a franchise tackle in short time. His 81/84 PBK/RBK to start is solid, but he needs to work on his awareness (50). I still don’t doubt he’d anchor either side for a long time. I think it proves good value here long term.
| | 1.19 | | CB Brandon Browner | Raiders see the monsters at WR for the Chargers and start to work on a fix. They’ve already converted the 6’2” Rashad Washington to cornerback and Browner would be fun to watch anyway. His 85 SPD means he’s going to need ALOT of training camp love though but if it works, that 6’4” frame will prove extremely valuable.
| | 1.20 | | WR Dante Ridgeway | I think tackle is also a consideration but it doesn’t look like anyone left is worthy of the 20th overall. Ridgeway would be a good compliment to their WR1 Koren Robinson. He’s 6’1” with 96 SPD, which there are only a handful in the league currently. He could have value as a kick returner as well especially if his SPD/ACC skews up.
| | 1.21 | | OLB DeMarcus Ware | Here’s another big linebacker in the draft, and the 6’4” 258lb Ware has the best SPD (86) of the 3 but let’s see if that holds up in a private workout. He could technically have 90+ SPD. His AGI/ACC will be disappointing though which is probably why he’s currently the 3rd linebacker selected. Also just 22, so he’s got some room to grow and get multiple training camps in.
| | 1.22 | | WR Tab Perry | I’m not sure how D’Wayne Bates did what he did against me last season, but if he can get going like that, Perry should have little issue developing into a stud with some time. He’s 6’3 with 93/92/93 SPD/AGI/ACC and 70 CTH but he needs some time to put that awareness (49). Adding McNair will go a long way for his development. Perry and Mann look like a promising duo, especially if the injury-prone Mann can hold up over the course of a season.
| | 1.23 | | LOLB Lorenzo Alexander | Buffalo gets to double up and drastically improve the speed of their linebacking corps, which should help in every facet of the game. Alexander has 88 SPD 84 AGI 86 ACC, though a bit raw in the TAK department. He’ll get all the snaps he needs though to build it up.
| | 1.24 | | OLB Brady Poppinga | At 6’3”, 250lbs with 85 SPD and ACC, Poppinga has all the physical traits necessary to be a very good linebacker. He needs a lot of work on his TAK and AWR, but he’s just 21, and the athleticism is enough to not only get by but do reasonably well anyway.
| | 1.25 | | CB Adam Jones | The Eagles don’t have glaring holes but they have just 2 corners (though they’re good) with time on the replacement clock on the roster. Jones starts with AWR over 70, and although he’s going to require some training camps to get his speed up to snuff, things will look a lot better after two plus regular progression. He looks to have a safe floor and can contribute from the nickel spot early on.
| | 1.26 | | MLB Lofa Tatupu | The only knock on Tatupu would be height (6ft) but he’s good to great pretty much everywhere else. Currently at 82 SPD 82 STR 85 AGI 86 ACC and 80 TAK, he’s been one that the more I look into him, the more I like him. Current MLB James Farrior is 30 and in the last year of his contract so I expect that’ll be no barrier for the rookie to get on board and play from day 1.
| | 1.27 | | WR Chase Lyman | The Bucs have a decent WR room, but now Keyshawn Johnson and his 80 SPD needs to be replaced. Lyman is 6’4” with 89 SPD and would fit right into the veteran’s role. The team is still running its older yet talented vets out there so I think could benefit from the big man’s red zone capabilities with Bledsoe at the helm.
. | 1.28 | | TE Alex Smith | He’s not a giant like Apolo prefers but he might be the best available. If his SPD skews up, he’s going before this, and even at 87 where it currently is, I can see him going much earlier. There aren’t many TEs in the league with this kind of speed even if it takes him bit to get rolling. His CTH is subpar, and pretty much most things are too but being fast at this size at TE is pretty tempting.
| 1.29 | | HB Ronnie Brown | Chicago’s run game has been very inconsistent and overall disappointing. They need a long term starter who can make plays Brown would fill that void with his 92 SPD/98 AGI/99 ACC/81 BTK/64AWR at 223lbs. That’s a pretty good base for some training camp work to end up a stud. The Bears rebuild seems to be going well.
| 1.30 | | HB Brandon Jacobs | Why not another big back, former real life Giant? If Jacob’s numbers improve even slightly in SPD and ACC, this 6’4” 264lb mammoth of a running back could join his 250lb brethren. He’s only 22 as well, and it looks like there’s the top reserve spot open in running back rotation, and he’d continue in the offense in the same manner if Dayne happens to go down.
| 1.31 | | HB Frank Gore | With the strength of this year’s FA class and the perceived weakness of the draft class, a 3rd HB in the first round? Sounds nutty but pre private workout that’s where I think the match point of value/needs currently lies. Gore has 95 SPD 91 AGI 99 ACC with 63 AWR and 80 BTK to start at 22. That sounds pretty good to me. The Jets let Lamont Jordan earn his money in Cleveland next year and the starting spot is up for grabs.
| 1.32 | | WR Chris Henry | Little to no chance Apolo drafts here but if he does, it’ll be some sneaky good selection. Henry is slow pre skew, but if you’re a patient guy, he can end up a steal after 4-5 training camps. Or maybe the private workout hits. Brees is the caliber of QB to easily groom the 6’5” 22 year old, just like they’re going to do w recently acquired Ashley Lelie.
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