It's the time of year. Time for PFT season predictions. Is this the earliest I've ever got them out? I think so. But the preseason is tonight, after an amazing offseason from our great Commish Crew, so I figured the Predictions are a nice way to get a few AP without taking 4 hours. I do want to remind you all that it's just for fun. The moral of the story?
If I don't rank your team where you think you belong, please don't take it personal! I am almost always wrong... except that year I predicted myself to win a Super Bowl and went (18-1) and completed one of the most dominating performances in Madden history, dispatching my good buddy Apolo in a memorable PTI Bowl. That year was cool. It's been rough since then. Anyway, AFC goes first, because alphabet.
AFC East
1.
New England Patriots
2.
Buffalo Bills
3.
Miami Dolphins
4.
New York Jets
Analysis: I foresee multiple Super Bowls for GM Rob Stanley... the question is just if this version of New England will be AS dominant as their NFL counterpart. I tend to think multiple PFT SB wins, but the uncertainty of Madden (upsets, injuries, etc) will keep them to around 2-3 SBs in Brady's career. You could argue that injuries cost them the first Brady SB last year. All things considered, I still love this roster. Mr. Stanley is such a pro, and as solid a GM as they come. The
Buffalo Bills roster continues to get better and better under GM Tom Collins, who isn't that far removed from a GGL Super Bowl Championship. If Kerry Collins plays ANYTHING like he did last year, then this very well could be the Bills winning the AFC East. But I have to think that regression matters, and he'll take a small step back. Even with that, they have such explosive weapons and a brutalizing rushing attack that should carry them to the postseason. The
Miami Dolphins haven't been good in this league yet - but it is imperative that GM Felipe Santos wins at least 6 games to not lose another year on his GM contract. While (6-10) would still be a disappointment in 24 year old Rex Grossman's third season, it would likely be good enough for 3rd place in the AFC East. I don't mean that as an insult to the
New York Jets, who had one of the best drafts of any team in the league and are clearly in great hands in GM Chris Hinch... I just think he's smart enough as a GM to know that one more amazing draft like he had last year could set this team up to (improbably) compete in the AFC East for a decade. To get the best QB and best DB this year (along with some other pretty good players) has them in the right direction. But imagine them next year if they nab another top 10 talent at WR to go with Smith. Will be interesting to see what they do with HB Eric Shelton. We had him high on our draft board as a TE - but maybe you give him a year at HB to see how he performs, then TC him as a HB next year so you still TC WR Williamson, and then move Shelton to TE in the preseason next year? Anyway, exciting times in New York, but New England and Buffalo are still the class of the division for now.
AFC North
1.
Baltimore Ravens
2.
Pittsburgh Steelers
3.
Cincinnati Bengals
4.
Cleveland Browns
Analysis: The
Baltimore Ravens have a stud at QB with Cody Pickett. They did have to unload some solid veterans like Ray Lewis this offseason to improve the health of their salary cap, but the Steelers also unloaded a bit as well, so I think it's a net positive. The Ravens had a big win last year in the playoffs, but I think the Patriots would love a rematch this year with Tom Brady under center. All things considered though, the Ravens didn't embarrass themselves in the playoffs last year against the eventual SB Champion Chargers... and they're only going to be better this year. The WR position lacks some firepower, but they have one of the most impressive OLs in the league, so that should gives guys a chance to get open. The
Pittsburgh Steelers did the weird thing where they traded their franchise QB, but then still poured a bunch of assets into acquiring HB Tomlinson. We'll see how far Boller can take them - but it's been an absolute carousel at QB, so I'm not willing to call him a long-term option at all. I think the OL, DL, LBs, and secondary are all solid enough that the Steelers will be in contention for the playoffs. The hard part is that the Titans got Culpepper, so you have to consider the AFC South a lock for two playoff teams unless Peyton Manning gets injured... and the Bills roster looks so good, too. The best route for the Steelers to make the playoffs remains to be winning their division... but I do think they're underdogs to do so. The
Cincinnati Bengals could surprise and turn some heads this year. They get a very friendly Broncos game Week 1, where the pressure will surely be all on my Broncos (especially after I publish this article). Phil continues to draft well, and Carson Palmer is a year away from being one of the best QBs in the damn league. Roddy White was a heartbreaking pick, as he was going to be a Bronco one pick later. I think he'll have a great year and is a perfect add with his hands and awareness for what Palmer needs. Their OL is leaky, but their defense looks top tier. Couple all that with reliable Special Teams, and I have a hard time seeing the Bengals winning any less than 8 games again this year. The question is - can they steal a couple games (perhaps from their division) to push themselves into the playoff pool? If not this year, then soon. The
Cleveland Browns are still rocking with Tim Couch. Ironically, he's progressed enough at this point that he actually will be a solid QB for the next 2-4 years, despite the insane price tag. Larry Fitz looks solid, their OL is good enough, and their DL is top notch with additions like Kelly Gregg. I didn't love the Shawntae Spencer add for a Top 10 pick, but it was a weak CB class. I'd have loved to see them trade UP instead to try and get Rolle to move to CB, but what's done is done. I think this team will be hard to beat - but I just don't know if they'll have enough gas to keep up in this division. I love Bill, so I'd be happy to be wrong.
AFC South
1.
Indianapolis Colts
2.
Tennessee Titans
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars
4.
Houston Texans
Analysis: The
Indianapolis Colts have Peyton Manning, one of the greatest Madden players of all time... so you automatically think this is a team that will win multiple Super Bowls and dominate record books and regular seasons. Couple that with a REALLY good GM, and I think the Colts win this division pretty handedly. That doesn't mean that the
Tennessee Titans will be FAR behind... and perhaps the historic GM Bryan Mellon could even laugh last winning a SB with Culpepper in Tennessee. For me, these are both 13 win teams, it's just a matter of which team will have the tiebreaker and get the 1 seed, while the other will be the 5 seed and heading to play whoever wins the AFC North or AFC West... which they should win either of those. Ultimately, I think if we call the passing game even on these two teams (which is being generous, considering how Madden loves Peyton), I still think the Colts get the
edge in the rushing attack by a mile. OL is comparable, and I think I like the Titans defense better even without Haynesworth. This should be one of the most fun battles to watch all year. On paper, it's Indy for me though. The
Jacksonville Jaguars are under new management and while I am excited to see what Erik can do, he has the unfortunate luck of joining one of the most stacked divisions in football. Is it possible that the AFC South could have THREE playoff teams? Yea, I think that's possible. Especially with McNair, Fred Taylor, Terence Newman, John Henderson and company. But ultimately, I think this team will float around .500 - which won't be good enough for the playoffs this year. Poor AC and the
Houston Texans have an uphill battle. AC has drafted well and acquired good players and been active and done all the things you hope to see a GM do after they so clearly tank the first season... but this division is just so stacked that it might be a good idea to save their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks to join the transfer portal this year and start fresh.
AFC West
1.
Denver Broncos
2.
Oakland Raiders
3.
Kansas City Chiefs
4.
San Diego Chargers
Analysis: The
Denver Broncos are one Chris Simms injury away from this not mattering, but I think this team has a lot of momentum for a big year. The division won the Super Bowl last year, and the pressure is now off of San Diego to win again right away. Surely they'll be motivated for the two tilts against Denver after going (0-2) v. the Broncos last year, but I can see progressing their talented young players being the theme for much of the rest of the year. Denver loaded up on more polished WRs, heading into the season with a (TC boosted) TJ Houshmanzadeh, vet Marty Booker, and speedy Antwaan Randle El. 2nd year TE Courtney Anderson looks to return from injury and take a step up. Rookie HB/WR Ronnie Brown also looks to inject a shot of life in the offense. The OL also all got rookie or sophomore progression and is looking more like a strength than a liability. On defense, CB Trufant is about to get +12 AWR this preseason, the DL got more physical and the LBs got more athletic. I know the league sense is that this defense is just ok - but I think we'll head into the year with a lot to prove. In 2nd place, I think the
Oakland Raiders' and GM Tim Miller have enough weapons around a rookie QB to push for double digit wins. The CB2 spot and a couple leaky front 7 defensive assignments give pause - but QB play is SO bad across the league that I think they'll be good enough. The team stands to give some veterans on offense like HB Dillon, WR Harrison, and WR Dyson heavy minutes. How they play could be the difference on determining if that was worth it in a few years, or if the team should be looking towards Vince Young. The
Kansas City Chiefs won the division two years ago, and I think this will be a bounce back year for Lefty. I worry about the WRs, but there aren't too many holes on the team aside from that. In last place, the reigning Super Bowl Champion
San Diego Chargers At 25 years old and 70 AWR, this is a make or break year for QB Eli Manning. He must stay healthy, as he can't through away another year of progression. That said, he has 99 STA, 97 INJ, 99 TGH... so you have to think last year was a fluke and he'll be fine. He was playing well last year before the injury, and I think this will be a VERY dangerous player with VJax and Plaxico. That said, I don't love the running game, and their LBs are a little pedestrian. Ultimately, Breck strikes me as someone motivated by a challenge, and I think he completed that challenge last year. How committed will he be to developing all these talented young players, or is he just biding his time until the Vikings open up? How long can one man tolerate being swept by the Denver Broncos each year?
AFC Playoff Seedings
1.
Indianapolis Colts
2.
New England Patriots
3.
Denver Broncos
4.
Baltimore Ravens
5.
Tennessee Titans
6.
Buffalo Bills
There they are. No spoilers, but I think the Super Bowl winning team is in that field of 6. Even the Wild Cards here are very dangerous, and if I was the (14-2) Colts, I'd be VERY nervous to play Tennessee in the playoffs. If this is in fact how it shakes out, I think the Bills would upset the Broncos, the Titans handle the Ravens and we're left with two MAIN EVENT matchups of Colts @ Bills and Titans @ Patriots. Wouldn't that be an exciting final 4? Hard to even pick who comes out on top in that crew. I guess you're going to have to read the Playoff Predictions to find out.
