Revisiting the 2003 First Round: Two Seasons Later
Two seasons is usually enough time to see the early shape of a draft class. Not the final verdict, but the trajectory: who is being developed correctly, who is being mismanaged, and who is simply getting unlucky with injuries or situation. What stands out most here is not just production. It’s development priorities. You can spot the teams investing in awareness and long-term growth versus teams that either hoard points or spend them on the wrong things. Below is a pick-by-pick look at the entire first round based on performance, progression, and how each player is being handled by their franchise. |
| PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS |
| 1.01 |  | QB Carson Palmer | Palmer is still in Cincinnati and, honestly, the on-field results haven’t taken the leap you’d expect from Year 1 to Year 2. It looks like he gained a point or two in THA through progression (hard to tell), but those points would have been much more valuable in AWR. The numbers tell the story: 10/14 TD/INT as a rookie, then 18/21 in his sophomore season. That’s not the direction you want the ratio trending. His QB rating barely moved as well, essentially the same with only about a 2.1 improvement. Injury context matters (he missed roughly 7 weeks as a rookie), but even with that excuse, this is still a disappointing development curve for the #1 pick. You draft 1.01 to get a franchise cornerstone, and right now Cincinnati has a “maybe.” Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.02 |  | WR Anquan Boldin | Boldin is still a Lion, but two seasons in and only 6 points into progressables? Something doesn’t add up. Either Detroit is stacking points on purpose or they’ve completely neglected his development, and I’m leaning heavily toward “points are being held back,” because there’s no other clean explanation. Performance-wise, his rookie season was solid: 918 yards on 51 receptions. That’s exactly the kind of base production you want from a top-2 pick. The problem is he doesn’t look like he’s being actively built into a true WR1 who can drive the offense. If he’s getting saved progression for a big Year 3 jump, fair enough. But based on what’s visible right now, this is wasted momentum. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.03 |  | QB Gibran Hamdan | Hamdan was traded to the Eagles after his rookie season, and it looks like the change of scenery did him good. There’s only a slight performance difference between Year 1 and Year 2, but the important part is that he was groomed correctly: a healthy 17 points were pumped into his progressables. In his second season he cracked 3,000 passing yards, which is a strong “we’re building something” signal for a young QB. This is how you handle a developing passer: get him reps, invest the points, and let the stats follow. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.04 |  | WR Andre Johnson | Andre Johnson is still in Chicago, and I’m getting the same “point-hoarding” vibes here. Only 6 progressables gained is not what you want from a top-5 receiver after two seasons. Production is good but not ascending: 950 yards in Year 1, then 820 in Year 2. It’s a step back. Not a collapse, but not the superstar trajectory either. With proper development, this should be the type of WR who forces defensive adjustments weekly. Chicago might still end up fine here, but right now the player is stuck in neutral. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.05 |  | MLB Troy Polamalu | He’s still with the Cowboys… and he’s playing MLB. Yes, you read that right. A 207 lbs linebacker in the middle of the defense. It’s the kind of move that makes you blink twice, but if it works, it works. To be fair, the development has been strong. He gained 16 progressables and looks like he’s being built into a real impact defender. Maybe I’m the one missing the vision here, but it’s hard not to respect the results if he’s producing. Long-term, I’d still worry about durability and being attacked in the run game, but this is clearly not a wasted pick. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.06 |  | LG Kris Dielman | Dielman is still in Arizona, and in Year 2 he finally showed why he went 1.06. The stat line is outrageous for an interior lineman: 89 pancakes with only 3 sacks allowed. Development-wise, 12 points were invested into him, and the scary part is he’s still only 23. That’s exactly the kind of “set it and forget it” long-term starter you want anchoring the inside. This is one of those picks that won’t get hype on the radio show, but wins you games for a decade. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.07 |  | HB Larry Johnson | Larry is still a Texan, and the production is already there: two straight seasons of 1,300+ rushing yards. Now it’s time for him to go from “good HB” to “the guy everyone gameplans for.” He has 23 progressed attributes (some of that is rookie progression), and it shows. This is what happens when you feed a back carries and actually invest in him: you get consistency, durability, and a weekly advantage. If Houston gives him a real OL and stays committed, this can be a nightmare matchup for the rest of the league. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.08 |  | CB Terrence Newman | Newman is still a Jaguar, and why wouldn’t he be? He’s been exactly what you want from a first-round corner: reliable, productive, and improving. Two seasons in, he’s sitting on a 48/67 DFL/CTHA ratio with 9 INTs. That’s not just “solid,” that’s a genuine difference-maker profile. He also has 20 points into progressables, so the GM is clearly investing in the right spots. If Jacksonville builds the rest of the secondary around him, this becomes one of the best picks of the entire class. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.09 |  | QB Brooks Bollinger | Bollinger has taken the scenic route: traded to the Titans last offseason, and then to the Vikings this offseason. That kind of QB carousel rarely helps development, because every system change resets timing and confidence. He also got unlucky early: injured in Week 2 of his rookie season and missed 12 games. That absolutely stalls progression. Still, 15 points were invested into his progressables, so there was at least an attempt to build him up. The problem is the end result: AWR is still below 70 after two seasons, and for a QB that becomes a hard ceiling. You can win with a low-AWR QB if the roster is stacked, but you don’t build a franchise around it. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.10 |  | LT Jordan Gross | Still in Baltimore, and recently locked up on a long-term 7-year deal. Gross has been steady, and for an offensive lineman, “steady” is basically elite. Both seasons: 71 pancakes and 4 sacks allowed. That’s very solid trench production. Development-wise, AWR was the focus, and it’s up to 76. Once position changes process, he’ll slide to LG to stabilize the interior next to a young center. That’s a veteran move and it’s exactly how you protect a developing offense. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.11 |  | ROLB E.J. Henderson | Henderson is still in Seattle, and his first two seasons have been absurd. Rookie year: 21 sacks. Sophomore year: a “quiet” season that still produced 10 sacks. Rock pumped 18 points into him, and it shows. Personally, I’d want even more emphasis into AWR to make him consistently dominant, not just physically dominant. But this is still elite edge production and Seattle clearly has a foundation piece. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.12 |  | MLB Cie Grant | Grant is still with the Rams. I don’t love how he’s being developed on paper, but the performance has been strong enough that it’s hard to call it “wrong.” My philosophy: once a MLB has around 80+ TAK, your next priority should be pushing AWR into that 70–75 range. Here, most points went into tackling, but the stats justify it. Rookie year: 113 tackles with 6 INT. Sophomore year: despite missing 6 weeks, he still posted 86 tackles with 5 INT. That’s impact production, and you can’t fake that from the middle of the defense. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.13 |  | CB Dennis Weathersby | Poor guy got traded twice this offseason: Titans to Vikings, then Vikings to Panthers. That’s a lot of moving parts for a young corner, but he’s produced through it. Across two seasons: 42/49 DFL/CTHA with 8 INTs. That’s legitimately good, and the development has kept pace too with 19 progressable abilities gained. If he gets stability now, this could quietly become one of the better CB picks in the round. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.14 |  | QB Rex Grossman | Grossman is still in Miami. Rookie season was average, and Year 2 was injury-ridden, which is the worst combo for QB progression: not enough reps, not enough momentum, and not enough production to earn big point gains. It looks like he was developed “the right way” in terms of investment, but without performance, the progression just doesn’t hit. This is one of those cases where the situation matters almost as much as the player. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.15 |  | CB Marcus Trufant | Trufant was traded to the Broncos last offseason. There’s barely any development so far; it feels like points are being stacked or the player is simply not being prioritized. Performance is okay: 32/65 DFL/CTHA isn’t horrible, but for a first-round CB you want more splash and more growth. Right now he’s trending “bust so far,” unless Year 3 flips the script. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.16 |  | CB Charles Tillman | Tillman is still a Chief and he’s developing nicely. The biggest thing I like: he’s already +16 AWR. That’s the kind of progression that turns a “good athlete” into a consistent starter. His DFL/CTHA ratio is 50/72, which is strong. This is a clean development story: invest in awareness, keep him involved, and let him grow into a matchup problem. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.17 |  | WR Kassim Osgood | Osgood is still a Saint, and he’s one of the clearest “mismanaged” guys in the class in my opinion. He’s sitting at only 59 AWR, and that matters. If awareness is that low, you’re basically running go routes and hoping. Most of his development went into CTH, and while that’s nice, I’d rather have a WR who can separate and run a route tree. The funny part is his build screams “red zone weapon,” especially with his height, but the development path doesn’t match that role. Production-wise, his second season was insane: 1,190 yards, best in the class. Still, with 59 AWR, I can’t call him fully well-developed yet. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.18 | | SS Yeremiah Bell | Bell is still in Miami. Solid rookie season, then he missed 7 weeks in Year 2, which always slows down both stats and development. The good news is his awareness is up 12 points from draft day. Not elite, but it’s the right direction, and it suggests Miami is at least building him into a functional long-term starter. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.19 |  | HB Willis McGahee | McGahee is still in New England and he’s thriving. Year 1 he nearly cracked 1,500 rushing yards, and in Year 2 he actually got there. The most impressive part might be ball security and consistency: 11 TDs and only 1 fumble across two seasons combined. That’s franchise HB behavior. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.20 |  | CB Ken Hamlin | Hamlin is still in Denver. Respectable rookie season, then he went nuclear in Year 2 with 9 INTs. Denver also did the right thing and invested in him: 18 points into AWR is exactly how you turn a playmaker into a consistent playmaker. Development grade: Well developed |
| 1.21 |  | C Ryan Pontbriand | Pontbriand is still in Cleveland, and this is the classic “wrong priorities” development case. Only 6 points into AWR, while 8 points went into RBK… which was already 91 when he was drafted. AWR is king. He’s sitting at 70 AWR, and he could be pushing 78–80 by now if those points weren’t dumped into a luxury stat. In my own research, RBK is only the third most important stat for a center. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.22 |  | DT Kenny Peterson | Peterson is still a Jet. He played a solid rookie season… and then never stepped on the field in his sophomore year. That’s brutal. Defensive tackles take time and reps to become monsters. If you’re not playing him at all, you’re basically pressing pause on his entire career arc. Wasted talent so far. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.23 | | WR Brandon Lloyd | Lloyd is still a Patriot, and the production is elite, but the development doesn’t match it. It looks like his progression was held back for the sophomore jump. Both seasons he cleared 1,100 yards, and in Year 2 he hit double-digit touchdowns with 10 TDs. That’s WR1 output every day of the week. If the points are stacked, fine. But based on what’s visible right now, it’s hard not to label it as underdeveloped. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.24 | | MLB Antwan Peek | Peek is still in Denver. I’ll repeat my philosophy again because it matters: AWR is the most important attribute at every position. And at MLB it matters even more because he’s the “QB of the defense.” Peek only got 3 points into AWR but 13 into TAK. Rookie year was solid, sophomore year was much quieter. This feels like a decent player being built the safe way rather than the elite way. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.25 |  | RT Jon Stinchcomb | Stinchcomb is still with the Giants and it’s been rough. Two straight seasons of getting cooked in pass pro: 19 sacks allowed in Year 1 and 14 in Year 2. He only gained 5 AWR, which doesn’t help. The weird part is the baseline blocking is actually good: 89 PBK and 88 RBK. That suggests a scheme fit issue, bad matchups, or that AWR is completely dragging him down. Either way, you can’t live like this at RT. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.26 |  | LE Ty Warren | Warren is playing for the Redskins now. His history is messy to track, but what matters is the pattern: he barely played as a rookie, which usually caps the Year 2 jump. Still, he came alive in his sophomore season with 16 sacks, which is more than respectable. If he gets consistent snaps going forward, the “underdeveloped” label can flip fast. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.27 |  | TE Jason Witten | Witten is still with Washington. Through two seasons he’s been middle-of-the-pack among tight ends in receiving yards. Not terrible, not special. The breakout might still be ahead, but the development hasn’t been aggressive enough. He only has 63 AWR, and for a TE, awareness is a huge part of route quality and consistency. 4 points into AWR and 4 into CTH simply isn’t enough if you’re trying to turn him into a featured target. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.28 | | SS Hanik Milligan | Still with Washington. Solid rookie season, then an injury-riddled second year. In Year 1 he posted 21 deflections and 2 INTs, which is exactly what you want from a young safety. Here’s the confusing part: only 3 points went into AWR and 3 into TAK, and his OVR is 87 (above the sophomore progression threshold). Holding back points doesn’t make sense to me here, so I’m not sure what happened. The end result is the same: not enough growth. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.29 | | WR Doug Gabriel | Gabriel is still a Dolphin, and two seasons in he’s sitting at only 56 AWR. He’s still just 24, so it’s not too late, but the clock is ticking. At some point you have to stop hoping and start pumping awareness. His first season was relatively quiet, but Year 2 popped: 1,117 receiving yards. That’s real production, and it makes the lack of development feel even more wasteful. Development grade: Underdeveloped |
| 1.30 | | QB Chris Simms | Simms was traded to the Broncos in the 2004 offseason. He got injured early in his rookie season, which set the tone. Sophomore season was sub-par, and while there was some investment (11 into AWR, 4 into THA), it hasn’t turned into consistent production yet. Not a total write-off, but definitely not an “instant franchise QB” story either. Year 3 is the swing year: either he stabilizes or he becomes a long-term backup with a famous name. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.31 | | QB Tony Romo | Romo is still a Giant. He dealt with a few weeks of injury as a rookie, and his second season wasn’t impressive performance-wise. Development has been moderate: 7 points into AWR and 6 into THA. That’s not nothing, but it’s also not enough to make you feel great about where he’s headed unless Year 3 becomes the real turning point. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| 1.32 |  | QB Dave Ragone | Ragone was traded to the Packers in the 2004 offseason. He didn’t start much there either, and as far as I can tell, there wasn’t a major injury excuse, just limited opportunity. That’s what makes the development so surprising: gaining 11 points of AWR and 3 points of THA with minimal playing time is genuinely impressive. If he ever gets a real shot at a full season of starts, he might be one of those late bloomers who suddenly becomes annoying to play against. Development grade: Somewhat developed |
| Quick class takeaway: the “winners” so far are the teams that invested into AWR early and let their rookies actually play. The “losers” aren’t always the bad players; it’s the franchises either holding points, spending them on luxury stats, or keeping young guys glued to the bench. Year 3 is where the separation becomes real. Some of these “underdeveloped” guys are one good offseason away from flipping the narrative. Others are already drifting toward bust territory, and the league usually doesn’t wait forever. |
