Week 2 picks
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The Redskins allowed just seven points last week, but that performance came against a Jets team in full rebuild mode. While the future may be bright in New York, they’re likely to struggle with consistency and competitiveness for now. Even in that favorable matchup, Washington managed to score only 12 points. This week, they face the Falcons in what should be a tougher test. Atlanta, however, has underperformed so far in the PTF. It’s fair to say that Michael Vick has been a disappointment to this point, and despite trade interest from several teams, the Falcons have refused to move him. They’re coming off a 16-point loss to the Cowboys, who were efficient both through the air and on the ground against Atlanta’s defense. Vick was held under 200 passing yards, with 80 of those yards coming on a single touchdown pass to Brian Finneran. Neither the Redskins nor the Falcons have gotten off to strong starts this season, but I’m giving the edge to Atlanta. I believe Michael Vick will eventually find his rhythm and elevate the Falcons’ performance.
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Cody Pickett is now rated at 72 AWR, and although the defense is in a slight rebuild due to salary cap constraints, I still expected the Ravens to control this division. However, they managed just three points last week against Pittsburgh. Pickett was limited to 200 passing yards with a 45% completion rate. Baltimore’s formula for success has always centered on strong defense and an effective run game. Jamal Lewis did his part, averaging five yards per carry, but the offense needs to generate more production overall. This could work in favor of the Browns, who are coming off a 28–16 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They intercepted Peyton Manning three times and held him to just a 50% completion rate—an unusually low mark for him. Edgerrin James was also contained, finishing with only 64 rushing yards. Like Baltimore, Cleveland was ultimately hurt by a lack of production in the passing game. Even so, I still lean toward Baltimore in this matchup. I believe they have more overall talent across the roster.
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This should be one of the best matchups of the week. The Packers and Vikings have traditionally been the top dogs in the division, but Detroit’s acquisition of Donovan McNabb has significantly shifted the balance of power.
McNabb struggled in our league last season, but he’s off to a strong start this year. He threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against a Cardinals defense that gave plenty of teams problems last season. It wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was an impressive and confidence-building win. The defending NFC champions also found themselves in a tight Week 1 battle, though they won in a much different fashion. Brett Favre threw for just 134 yards, but the Packers controlled the game on the ground, rushing for a combined 223 yards and adding a defensive touchdown to seal the victory. While the Lions are clearly improved with steadier quarterback play, the Packers still have the more experienced roster. In a matchup that could go either way, I trust Green Bay’s veteran presence to make the difference.
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Another intriguing matchup this week features the quarterback-carousel Tennessee Titans. After acquiring Daunte Culpepper, Tennessee looks poised to be a top contender again. It was surprising to see the franchise move on from Steve McNair last year, only to pivot in a completely different direction at quarterback this season. The Titans caught a bit of a break in Week 1 against the Raiders, who were starting rookie quarterback Derek Anderson. Even though Tennessee put up 28 points, the offense didn’t look as sharp as the score suggests. The same could be said for the Colts. Peyton Manning threw three interceptions last week, but Indianapolis still racked up nearly 400 total yards of offense. The turnovers are concerning, yet the overall production shows how dangerous they can be. I like the Colts’ roster overall, and while the Titans have plenty of upside with Culpepper, it may take some time for them to fully figure out what works offensively. For now, I’m leaning toward Indianapolis in this one.
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The Bills lost a shootout to their division rival, the New England Patriots. Those matchups are always intense, and despite an offseason focused on improving the defense, it seems like they’ve turned into track meets every time these teams meet. The Jaguars put up 30 points against the Carolina Panthers last week, and Steve McNair played fairly well overall. The two interceptions took some shine off his performance, but Jacksonville was still effective through the air and managed to hold Carolina to just 277 total yards. With both offenses showing the ability to move the ball, I’d expect even more scoring this week. That said, I’m giving a slight edge to my Bills in what should be another high-scoring battle.
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I mentioned the quarterback carousel earlier, and it’s not just the Titans dealing with change. The Steelers are turning to Trent Green as their new starter, opting for him over Kyle Boller this season. Pittsburgh managed just nine points last week but still came away with a win because the Baltimore Ravens could only muster three. It must be nice to win while scoring so little, but it makes it difficult to get a true read on where the Steelers stand offensively. From a production standpoint, they seem to be lacking top-end talent. The Chiefs didn’t fare much better, scoring only 10 points against the Chargers. Both teams faced strong defenses last week, which explains some of the offensive struggles. Still, it’s hard to fully trust either unit right now. Byron Leftwich, in particular, hasn’t been very productive so far in his young career. All things considered, this matchup feels like a coin flip.
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It’s hard to be more disappointed in a quarterback than I am in Chad Pennington. Houston gave up valuable assets to acquire him, but so far he hasn’t been a difference-maker. Against the Dolphins last week, he was held to under 150 passing yards. The Texans still managed to pull out a win, but if they want to stay competitive, he’ll need to be far more productive. The Saints are coming off a loss to the Seahawks in which they allowed 31 points. What’s especially concerning is that two of those touchdowns came against rookie backup Jason Campbell, who was selected in the seventh round this year. That’s not a great look for the New Orleans defense. While I haven’t been high on Pennington, if the Saints’ defense puts together a similar performance this week, he could be in line for a much better outing.
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The Dolphins turned in a solid defensive performance last week, holding Chad Pennington to under 150 passing yards. Offensively, they weren’t bad either, finishing with 18 first downs and 300 total yards. Ultimately, the game seemed to come down to turnovers—they had one too many. Fortunately, they get a favorable bounce-back opportunity this week against the Jets. The New York squad managed just seven points in their loss to the Washington Redskins. First overall pick Alex Smith threw for only 66 yards and two interceptions. While there’s been plenty of praise for their rebuild and the value of their roster moves, the reality is that with so many wholesale changes, growing pains are inevitable.
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Speaking of growing pains, the Bears are likely to have their share with rookie Aaron Rodgers. He had a solid debut overall, but there will inevitably be ups and downs. Chicago moved the ball well last week, yet two costly turnovers—an interception and a fumble by Rodgers—shifted the momentum. The 49ers’ offense struggled for much of the game, but they capitalized with a defensive touchdown that proved to be the difference. Meanwhile, the Vikings have moved on from Daunte Culpepper and will turn to Brooks Bollinger as their starter. Despite the quarterback change, Minnesota still has considerable talent across the roster. They did ship some veteran players to Dallas at what seemed like bargain prices—almost like they have the Cowboys on speed dial—but the core of the team remains strong.
Overall, I think the Vikings have the better roster right now, and I have more trust in their quarterback situation heading into this matchup.
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The Seahawks were one of the hottest teams in the league last year and narrowly missed the playoffs. It would’ve been exciting to see how far they could’ve gone if they had gotten in. They escaped Week 1 with a win despite losing their starting quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck, for a large portion of the game. They’ll likely need him at full strength this week against Arizona and its defense. The Cardinals were competitive for much of last season largely because of that defense. While they may lack elite athleticism on that side of the ball, they’ve added significant veteran talent this year in Ray Lewis and Peter Boulware, which could elevate the unit even further. Offensively, though, Arizona faces a setback. Philip Rivers suffered a season-ending injury last year, costing him valuable development time. Divisional games are always tough to predict, but when Seattle is clicking on all cylinders, they’re a difficult team to pick against.
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I don’t fault the Panthers for rolling with Andrew Walter at quarterback this year. Billy Volek wasn’t the long-term answer, even though he got off to a strong start last season. Walter attempted just six passes before being knocked out of the opener, forcing Volek to step in. Fortunately, that injury didn’t linger into Week 2, so now we’ll get a better sense of what Walter can really do. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, were one of the hottest teams in the league last year but were surprisingly eliminated earlier in the playoffs than expected. Even so, they remain a dangerous team. Regardless of how well Tampa Bay’s defense plays, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Walter or Volek can keep pace with Drew Bledsoe in a potential shootout.
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The Raiders made a surprising move this offseason by parting ways with Brian Griese, especially considering how well he played and the fact that Oakland had surrendered a future first-round pick to acquire him. Now they’re turning to Derek Anderson. Like any young quarterback, he’s facing a long developmental road. The Bengals, on the other hand, have one of the league’s best young signal-callers in Carson Palmer. At times he looks beyond his years; at others, he shows flashes of inconsistency. Still, I trust Cincinnati in this matchup.
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This next game is much tougher to predict. The Broncos just hung more than 50 points on those same Bengals last week. Chris Simms threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns, while Ron Dayne added 156 rushing yards and two scores. If Denver’s offense continues clicking like that, they’ll be extremely difficult to beat—especially given how much they’ve invested defensively. Both teams are built similarly: strong defenses, young quarterbacks, and slightly recognizable names at running back. I’m leaning toward the Chargers simply because they’re the defending champions, but this feels like a true toss-up and could carry playoff implications later in the season.
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The Rams, for whatever reason, just can’t stay healthy. Even with a highly rated training staff, injuries continue to pile up. They’ve now lost Marshall Faulk for seven weeks. Fortunately, they still have Kurt Warner leading that offense, which should keep them competitive—especially this week against the 49ers. Warner only threw six passes last week before exiting, but his backup, Marc Bulger, stepped in and tossed four touchdowns for 287 yards. With that kind of depth, the Rams should be just fine in the short term.
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Until Tony Romo fully develops, the Giants will have a hard time keeping pace in this division. I believe the Cowboys are currently the team to beat, though the gap isn’t enormous. Romo just signed a long-term extension, so Dallas is clearly committed to him. For the Giants to stay competitive, they’ll need to lean heavily on Tiki Barber and the run game while hoping the defense can create splash plays. Dallas, despite its talent, didn’t score as consistently as expected last year and seemed to take a step back offensively. Drew Brees threw for 250 yards last week but managed only one touchdown. On paper, the Cowboys should handle the Giants comfortably. If they can’t, serious questions will start to surface—maybe even talk of drastic changes.
