I was going to write all the teams, but ran out of time, will try to do NFC later tonight or in some days (even if only do 3 weeks) for the other teams that are in race, specially, Bengals, Texans and Browns will add the analysis in part 2, and some comments of the other teams that are in draft pick race
Will discuss the playoffs scenario, draft picks,hot seat and more for the final quarter of the season, the 1st step of this article will be to predict the final 64 games of the season.
But it will be done team by team, with a projected record. Teams will be separated by conference, and place together in situations as draft picks.
New England Patriots 9-3 / Projected Record 12-4
vs Dolphins = Win
vs Jaguars = Win
At Jets = Win
vs Bills = Lose
The Patriots control their destiny, they are probably the team in best shape of AFC, with a veteran elite QB as Tom Brady, is very hard to pick against them, many of the teams inside AFC chaotic playoffs race have something in common, a very complicated schedule, and that’s not the case for NE, something to consider is that they face 3 divisional rivals, those games can always be trap ones, Dolphins with only 3 wins could represent more problems, as QB Rex Grossman is back, the Jaguars did start a restructure build, but somehow they keep winning, they’re a good team but I don’t think Pats losing that one, the Jets on race for 1st overall pick are way better than only 1 win, but I can only imagine their focus is on that pick can make them contender soon, divisional game carry some risk, but still, and the final div game comes vs a Bills team that could be playing for their playoffs run, both teams usually have close games, yet I think because what each team will be playing for the Bills need it more, on this scenario also depends on Patriots chances for #1 seed, the divisonal title, the bye week, and risk a Tom Brady missed last season playoffs, My prediction has Patriots taking 1 of the 2 bye week spots, and are the favorite team for represent AFC on SB, anything less than an AFC Championship would be a failure season for a team built for win since season 1 with a privilege at QB that still haven’t won a playoffs game.
1st round pick projection: 1.26-1.32
San Diego Chargers 9-3 / Projected Record 11-5
at Lions = Lose
vs Packers = Lose
at Steelers = Win
vs Raiders = Win
The Champion have managed to find ways to win with a young QB, huge respect for that, Manning has an incredible record so far, the team win with great defense, running game and a limit ammount of mistakes in offense, the right formula for a QB is surrounded with talent, the situation is yet not as glamorous as could think, their neighbors on division Broncos using identical formula, and have looked more dominant, 2 KRumbles gave hopes to Chargers that otherwise would be out division race and with complications for make playoffs, I think the game vs Lions is just too hard to overcome, they have displayed a great defense and in close games always rely on the veteran QB, the game vs Packers they have way more chances than would’ve had with Favre in, yet I think Brad will get his SB Rematch, yeah... someone hates Brad, at the moment of writting this, Chargers SB banner is still at website, and he has his rematch in regular season with his QB out for the season, and virtually retired, Packers win this battle those, the Steelers game carry a lot of importance for Chargers, not only will be on win to be alive at this point, but also they own the Steelers 1st round pick, the thing with Steelers is that are not as easy as look, a good game by LT (revenge game) or by Ray Lewis and could get the win, yet I think Chargers wil win. Finally closing vs a divisional rival that doesn’t have their 1st round pick could be dangerous, Raiders could try to ruin Chargers season, not an easy win but I have Chargers winning. Finally I think the Chargers will find their way into playoffs as wildcard team with 11-5 record, I think their goal is to reach div round (win 1 game) I don’t see them on conference game, and definetily not retaining the crown. Even with current position of #2 seed, I dont think they’ll get a bye week, and think is posible they miss playoffs.
1st round projection: 1.19-1.25
Indianapolis Colts 8-4 /Projected: 11-5
at Titans = Win
vs Falcons = Win
vs Broncos = Lose
at Texans = Win
I feel bad using this word for a 8-4 team that has SB chances and could be considered a favortite, but if Colts miss the playoffs in back to back seasons it will be a big: failure.
These team was meant to be a dynasty, some of the most loaded rosters to start the league not only for present but for future, similar to Vikings on the NFC or Patriots on same AFC, are teams that were good for season 1, but had the pieces to be good all around, the Colts have an MVP caliber player, Manning is out of this world, and last season they missed playoffs, on the last game, with an injury, again, I feel Gary and the Colts on a position where all can be expected from Colts is excellence, and that’s not how this game works. I have them winning the key matchup (game of the season for them) vs Titans, I think Manning will be enough, I think defense will rise the hand, expecting a great day from Freeney. After that they go and play vs a very tricky team as Falcons, Atlanta is not easy, they have emerged back after a hard season start and should be playoffs team, yet I trust more in Manning than in Vick, after 2 complicated games, go to another? Yeah, on a game that could have direct implications for a bye week seed, I think Broncos have what it takes to beat Colts and that’s a solid defense, will be a close one but Denver wins that one, closing the season vs a divisional rival ain’t nice, specially as they have minimal margin, yeah, if they beat Titans and Falcons as projected will be 10-5 at that moment but 4 hard games = 0 margin, and they could be playing all IN on week 17. I think... Colts win the division and get seed #3, yet, as with all AFC is too risky to predict a playoffs spot. (Patriots and Broncos are my 2 safest picks), in playoffs everything change, if Colts qualify, they are a SB caliber team, that should be the goal, they already have 1, why don’t 2?
1st round projection 1.18-1.32
Baltimore Ravens 8-4 / Projected:10-6
vs Bengals = Lose
vs Raiders = Win
vs Browns = Win
vs Steelers = Lose
The Ravens are an interesting team, they have very talented players in some positions, but they don’t have an elite QB, Pickett have been great but now he’s injured, and yet wasn’t a guarantee, the replacement is not much different but is still a considerable lost. Analytics king Norbert always find ways to compete, and that’s part of the reasons this team is 8-4, they have 3 divisional games ahead, and will be difficult ones, I had them losing vs Bengals, that will send them to outside playoffs picture temporarily, ultimately they will be back after they manage to beat Raiders, and then a harder divisional game vs Couch and Browns, I thin for that game the roles will be different, I give the advantadge in QB position to cleveland but the rest of the team doesn’t inspire me confidence, that said the Ravens survive, and will reach week 17 on advantadge and depending on themselves just for lose vs Steelers team lead by Ray Lewis, yeah Ray Lewis is a Steeler, something wouldn’t have happened if Ravens sent him to Dallas, I guess this could be a lesson, and do not let Ogden suffer, Norb if you reading this, call me. Despite falling to 10-6 I think they will be able to keep the AFC North divisional title and be at playoffs, there I predict a 1 and out, I don’t think in the harder games will be able to win just with game-planning and defense, the QB spot is a difference maker.
1st Round Projection: 1.21-1.24
Denver Broncos 9-3 / Projected: 12-4
vs Chiefs = Win
vs Browns = Win
vs Colts = Win
at Packers = Lose
Is not a secret my PTI partner champa tampa is a good friend, so logically I’m happy to see him succeed, specially outside Buccaneers, I remember he being sad after found out he wasn’t TB GM, Im not surprised to see Broncos being a good team as there’s a lot of work behind them, personally I really like their defense, it was a topic a couple months ago, and I was going to vote yeah, top 10 defense, but hey, that poll... dissapeared, so well, at least now they’ve proven are for real, I have doubts about QB Simms, not because he isn’t good, I mean was draf by Cowboys, that’s like a quality guarantee, players drafted by Cowboys are winners. But same time, in playoffs when Simms have to prove it vs Manning and Brady, I just don’t think will be enough, my prediction for AFC conference game is Patriots vs Colts, ironically I place them Broncos winning on week 16 and say that, but ultimately playoffs is about pressure, about QB, and yeah... Defense win championships, but idk I think Broncos time will be in a couple seasons. Week 14 with some help of Chargers, they should have no problems beating 3-10 team backup QB on chiefs, the Browns could be a problem if Couch on a good day but I like more the balance on Broncos, the Colts as mentioned above will be a key game and I think Champa Tampa win it at home, finally I think both Broncos and Patriots will reach week 17 on battle for seed #1 and both teams will lose, but the tie breaker will benefit denver. Having the bye week is critical for broncos, I said about Simms on playoffs, well better to just need to win 3 instead 4. I’ll jynx myself but what the hell... let’s do it. It’s posible Cowboys end 15-1 as that memorable Champatampa season, remember who he beat at SB? Well... Would like to return the favor, long neck Brees will take us to promised land.
Buffalo Bills 8-4 / Projected 11-5
Vs Jets = Win
At Titans = Win
Vs Dolpins = Lose
At Patriots = Win
Tom Collins is a GM im never comfortable picking against, he knows how to make his teams win, in my time on leagues he probably has the most conference games appearances, and every season he made it to conference I’ve thought the same thing: that team is not special, is like he has some kind of sorcery, I don’t think Bills had a great team last 2 seasons, and yet they were there, I don’t love QB Collins, I think he over-perform every game, but Bills probably had one of the best off-season, they’ve hit twice with the speedy WR, have added very interesting pieces and they’re lethal, I don’t think anyone wants to cover those WR, but there’s also the risk of HB Williams having a career game, or the defense delivering a shutdown as happened last week vs Giants, Bills are a dangerous team, with 3 divisional games and with 0 margin of error ahead, I don’t think they should bench QB on this week matchup, I hope it’s just rumors, otherwise their season might be over this week, have them winning and have them starting their qb on week 14, then go and travel to Tennessee in what is legit a playoffs game, that game can be a direct plaoffs tie-breaker criteria, assuming im predicting both Patriots and Colts to grab their division, so that’s a playoffs ticket game, i think the speedy WR and the big plays give Bills the win, then I have them losing vs a Dolphins team that is better than 3 wins team, heavily affected by the qb injury, GM Santos playing for avoid hot seat, and another common thing on Tom teams is randomly losing a divisional game, it all balance as they close their season with a div against their rivals, and taking a wildcard spot. They could compete in playoffs, but I see them going 1 and out losing game vs Colts.
1st round projection 1.18 -1.24
Tenneessee Titans 8-4 / Projected 8-8
Vs Colts = Lose
Vs Bills = Lose
At Texans = Lose
Vs Buccaneers= Lose
I have to be crazy to predict a team is 8-4 and have QB Daunte Culpepper to lose thier final 4 games, and yeah but same time I think there’s good reasons too, 1st, they have to play vs Peyton Manning this week, I had Colts winning that one, then play vs Bills on another dificult game, I think Titans easily could win both, but IF they lose both games, then the situation gets “ugly” Bryan is a proud liar he enjoys that narrative but I really think he’s pissed about the non Marvin Lewis on the league, and I think if he lose his next 2 games, he will start bench players, Texans and Buccaneers are not easy opponents anyway (9 wins still make him not losing a year). I like and respect Bryan, he’s the Lord of the rings, he knows better this game than anyone, maybe he found exactly in which week to change lineups or he has some hidden tech that have reserved to himself, but personally I disliked his decision of benching QB, and it’s ironic I did the same thing, but the situations of Titans and Cowboys were very different in all aspects, standings and backup QB, so Im twisted about my opinion of Titans, with them grabbing QB Culpepper I was expecting Bryan to go back to his prime,, a multiple times champion should be thinking on SB and not on Marvin Jones rule, specially on a system where is so easy keep team. Lets see how things go, Bryan is tricky, he could be playing the “im weak” and then attack us with a Palpatine movement, woudln’t surprise me and that Titans team is stacked, good defense, a top QB and elite HB, I wouldn’t like playing them.
1st Round projection 1.19-1.22
Jacksonville Jaguars 7-5/ Projected 8-8
vs Texans = Lose
at Patriots = Lose
vs Saints = Win
at Falcons = Lose
Erik have been a tremendous adition to the league, very active, very friendly and he’s doing an excellent job as Jaguars GM, Im convinved he will be very succesful on the league, and I’ll be happy when that happens, truly deserved, now... this season for Jaguars is, hard to explain? a bit strange, they sit at 7-5 after allowing the most points in a madden game I can remember vs Texans, that are exactly their rival this week, and when season seemed lost, they started trading veterans as they should, but the backups started winning games, so the rebuild process got affected by it as lowers their 1st round pick,they still have 3 1st - 3 2nds and like unlimited PW so Im sure they will be fine, but still I would understand Erik yelling at his team: stop winning, come on! Patriots are just too good, so he won’t ahve problems that week, I think Jags sneak a win vs Saints but is a close game could go for anyone, finally lose vs a Falcons team that is way better than it seemed earlier on the season. This is not a playoffs season for Jaguars and their new GM, but is a good 1st experience and the start of a new Journey
1st round projection: 1.17-1.19
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