Apollo knows I'm a sucker for racing in general and he ended up pitching the idea of a “Racing Look At Offseason Trades” idea and I thought that could be a fun different perspective on our thoughts on some of the many deals that have been happening the last couple weeks. The best way of understanding our position and what we mean with the flags is to take a second and glance at this article and it will all make MUCH more sense.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/the-beginners-guide-to-formula-1-flags.T5DqOqbWI6S4Va8Y5yMld
BRONCOS / COLTS
Broncos send QB Chris Simms, CB Marcus Trufant, LT Lance Nimmo l Colts send QB Peyton Manning
APOLO:
Broncos Green Flag - Colts Black Flag
This is a very interesting trade, probably the one will impact more the result of the season. If we judge only value, the movement is within expected value, even if I think the Colts could’ve gotten more value if had shopped Manning for more time, as have happened with almost all the QB trades it happened as soon as we advanced to new season. For me more than the value, the result on this trade comes with the message, I love Gary and wish nothing but the best for Colts, but giving up on the player gave you a ring + have been playing MVP level the last 2 seasons, just because missed playoffs twice with winning record 9-7, is giving up on the chances to win SB again, at least in some seasons, with Manning Colts were a contender, now, might make playoffs, might doesn’t, that’s why showing them a black flag, because that’s how I feel Colts hopes have turned after this, on the contrary Broncos receive a green flag because with this move they not only jump into the SB talk, for me they become insta favorites, have added the best performance QB of the league to a team got seed #1. Again, I think value could be considered fair on both sides, but for this deal I’ll judge the message it send to their respective fans
ERIK: DENVER BRONCOS – BLACK FLAG WITH AN ORANGE DISC
I'm throwing a meatball flag on this deal. I can see why each team would maybe wanna do this trade but overall I do not think this is going to be a good long term decision for the Broncos. Coming off a 12-4 season, winning the AFC West and securing a first round bye all while having a Quarterback that on paper yes, isn't quite up to the same talent level yet as some other contentions in the AFC but Simms also had a pretty good year overall considering. He was top half of the league in completion percentage at nearly 51%, 7th in the league in yards, tied for 5th in the league in touchdown passes with 30 and was 10th in the league with a QB Ratio of 86.6. He had a really good year last year and was doing it with an Awareness rating that ended the year at 73. That is super impressive. He also performed well in that playoff loss to the Bills going 16-24, 268 yards 2 TD and did have 1 INT that did unfortunately get returned for a touchdown by Deon Grant. I would not have moved off him as tempting as Peyton Manning can be and to be fair with as cheap of a contract as Manning has, it had to make that decision even tougher. SIms is going to be a really, really good QB in this league in the next year or so and the Colts I think will get the most out of him seeing as they are coming off a historically great statistical passing season that unfortunately didn't add up to as many wins as they would have wanted. The Colts have their long term answer, the Broncos are going to need to be in a win now mode the next couple years to make this QB swap worth it. Losing CB Marcus Trufant had to have been a tough pill to swallow as well, he is a young CB that is so close to being one of the elite Cornerbacks in this league and it is just a matter of time before he is up in the top of the interception leader charts year in and year out and will most likely be a true pain in my ass for the next 7 seasons (Thanks AP…….). The last piece of this and I know it didn't all come from this trade is the cap aspect of it. The Broncos and Colts both have put themselves in a bit of a tight spot for next season and will need to tread carefully. The Broncos are sitting at $23.2M cap penalties heading into 2007 and the Colts are looking at #21.3M themselves. I know both of these GM’s are smart guys and probably have a plan in place but I think there is a scenario that either team could be having to trim a bit more fat then they would like next offseason to get under the cap as the long term ramifications of this and other moves they have made fully play out.
EAGLES / PACKERS
Eagles sends 1.29 and 2.15 l Packers send LE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and 7.27
APOLO:
Packers Surface Flag - Eagles Blue Flag
The situation for the Packers is clear as water, they started with a win now roster, kept their players, added new veterans and tried their best for win a SB with Favre, the luck and injuries didn’t let that happen, now is the moment tor rebuild, they have their QB at Ragone, but will take some seasons getting there, here they do the right move, KGB wouldn’t help them much to win games now, and they grab a young asset, very good move by Packers, showing them a Surface Flag because I think they do a rebuild team move, they’re clearing the hazards before can compete again. Im showing the Eagles a blue flag because I think is the moment they advance, KGB will be a relevant player for 2-3 years but not more than that his awr and tak are low so is very weak to regression, here, as divisional rival couldn’t be happier with this deal, and I’ll try my best to use racing terms. When we started the league, the Eagles had the best roster within division, then Redskins, Giants and finally my Cowboys, I did an undercut to Eagles when acquired Brees, I went to pits put my hard tires and well, left myself without options, knowing the moment Eagles went pits could take the lead again, now... they just went Pits but instead use Hard or Medium tires, they chose soft tires, yeah, the eagles defense will be extremely good for the next seasons, but it was very scary to see them grabbing 3-4 1st rounders prospects that were going to dominate. So as divisional rival and someone doing an analysis here, for me, acquiring KGB is a soft tires move, they will fly now, but will need to go pits soon, only the next couple seasons results will determine if was a good or bad strategy
ERIK: BOTH TEAMS – GREEN FLAG
Honestly this is a trade that makes sense on both sides. The Philadelphia Eagles defense in 2005 was statistically truly average. 14th in Points Allowed and Total Defense a Game, 15th in Pass Defense and 18th in Rush Defense. Not bad but not overly impressive (Not that I would know anything about defense) DE Derrick Burgess did have a good year leading the team in sacks with 11 but they did lose the player who was 2nd on the team in sacks DE Vonnie Holliday to free agency. Gbaja-Biamila I think will pair really nicely opposite of Burgess and solidify a Defensive Line that honestly could be one of the best in the league. If the Eagles get the kind of production he was getting in Green Bay they are going to be thrilled with the result and should be able to force quite a few more punts giving their offense a bit more time of possession too to work with. For the Packers side of this I don't mind the trade either, you never love losing a great pass rusher but with Brett Favre retiring and freeing up $11M in cap space, getting a couple good picks back in the top 50 selections can really give the Packers flexibility on how they choose to Reload a roster that still should be in contention in the NFC North at the end of the season. DE Kampman could easily move over and fill the void KGB left or that could be an area the Packers look at with 1.29 or 2.15. This trade I think helps set them up well for long term success if they keep all 5 picks in the top 50 or they have some good ammo to go out and be aggressive with trades, maybe bringing in some veteran players who are more suited for a win now strategy.
WASHINGTON / CHARGERS
Washington sends TE Jason Witten l Chargers send 1.14, 3.8, 3.13.
APOLO:
Chargers Green Flag - Redskins Code 60
The value received it’s “fair” I mean, I doubt anyone would’ve paid 1.5-1.7 range pick for Witten as good as he is the position is not a big impact one, so from a value perspective I see the reasoning for both teams doing it, I like it a bit more for Breck because is a safe prospect with progression in, they have a developing QB on Eli Manning that can really use the safe target, I think a young QB benefits a lot from a good TE, and now Manning is surrounded of talented targets, that’s why showing them a green flag, they’re ready to run. I’m showing the Redskins a code 60 flag because I think they keep delaying their progress, I love Scott he’s a great friend, but as someone share the division with, Cowboys are happy to see these kind of moves, because it just keep delaying the Redskins dominance and give us more time to react, I think Witten was a huge HR at draft, he would’ve been drafted near 1.14, so he played 3 seasons, and when the best coming gets traded at 24? I’ll sign that everyday, as mentioned above for the eagles, I think is another pits situation, the Redskins chose the hard tire, going for the long run, but they had a hard tire already and went back to pits lets say, 5-10 laps since last visit?
ERIK: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS – GREEN FLAG
This trade, maybe you could argue, could be a Green Flag for both sides but I think this works out a lot better for the Chargers than it does Washington. San Diego has their 2 starting WR’s and yes probably could of kept 1.14 and used it and try and snag one of the top 2 or 3 Tight Ends coming out of this class that look like they could be really, really good depending on how they transition from college to the talent they will be facing in the pros. If you were going to take a really big swing at a Tight End instead of drafting one Jason Witten would 100% be the guy you would wanna give that much capital for. Witten is one of 3 current players in the PTF that is at least 6’4”, 85 SPD, 75 AGI, 85 ACC and 85 CTH. Fred Jones did fine for the Chargers last year getting 39 catches for 503 yards and found the endzone 3 times but it does seem like they are looking to get more production over the middle of the field from that position and Witten could be exactly what they needed. Witten was the 4th most used TE last year bringing in 52 catches for 775 yards and had an impressive 8 touchdowns, albeit from a mixture of 3 different Quarterbacks Washington ended up starting last year due to injuries. He is on the last year of his contract so you can guarantee that he is about to get a fat extension from the Chargers and should put up similar if not better numbers this year if Eli Manning can have his first full healthy season.
STEELERS / VIKINGS
Pittsburgh sends 1.19, 1.28, 1.29 WR Dante Ridgeway, fut pit 1st l Vikings send WR Randy Moss, 7.32 fut min 2nd fut min 3rd
APOLO:
Vikings Chequered Flag - Steelers Warning
So let me explain why picked those flags, for me the Vikings got the chequered flag of the qualy and got the 1st spot of the grid, the Steelers get a warning, lets say off tracks, because their move compromise a lot their future, it might work but they’re 1 more dangerous move away from being on a really bad spot.
Erik, If the FIA sanction me and this is the last time we collab, was an honor, I’ll describe this trade by saying If I do this trade and Im the one trading Moss discord goes on fire, I was genuinely surprised this wasn’t more discussed, yeah I get the name, is Moss, great receiver... he’s 29 yo and had an historical disappointing production, being outplayed by WRs with minimal awr-catch, Dante Ridgeway is a very interesting prospect, 6”1 and will be more athletic than Moss in a couple seasons, for upgrade him paid 3 1st on this draft and a future 1st of a team without a QB situation stable, I mean I could’ve seen this price being paid for Manning, but as we saw above he was traded for less, or at least for close to this, and Manning wins championships alone, Moss doesn’t. I can only wish the best for the Steelers, and hope this work, but for this trade to make sense Moss have to have multiple 2k yards seasons with 15+ TD, I mean at least 3 of those seasons, and we know ain’t happening, on his prime with veteran QB he haven’t done it. I think even without the future 1st the deal was a win for Vikings, but I could’ve seen Steelers doing it, specially with multiple picks on the pocket, but risking the future is where I think they put the franchise on risk and that this move could set them back for 3+ years. I have more thoughts but not needed to beat a dead horse, Im rooting for a good production for Moss that makes it worthy for Pittsburgh
ERIK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS – “CODE 60” FLAG
Ok there isn't really a good flag to describe this trade because I don't think a Black Flag is fitting since there was nothing un-sportsman like that would warrant a penalty in racing but im using the Code 60 Flag as a bit of a “Pump the Brakes” and lets just hold up for a sec and think about this one and the impact of it. Randy Moss is a generational player that you literally can't ask for anything to be better, size, speed, catching, anything about him is Elite and can wreck a play at any moment and take it to the house. One of the only negatives is that he is 29 and will regress a tiny bit next year but still be probably the top WR choice in the league but will also be on the last year of his deal and the Steelers will be in a really really weird spot of trying to figure out what to do with an aging WR who is really good but will be getting paid A LOT of money and getting worse and worse if you restructure him. If you are in a win now he is an amazing addition and could be worth it but im not quite sure that is where that franchise is at, at this moment. There also are a couple other guys with 2 years left on their contracts that will force some other moves or tough decisions about what to do with Moss next year or in the offseason of 2007. Outside of the sticky contract situation the other part of this that just makes me pause is the price. I'm not saying Randy Moss going for a few 1sts is shocking, it's not. I think it's more where he is going and where the roster is at the time of doing so. 3 1st round picks in 19, 28 and 29 is probably pretty fair for someone of his talent. I think where I have a bit more issue with is the Dante Ridgeway aspect of it. The Vikings pick up all those picks AND get a WR who was taken with the 26th pick last year and in all reality got the equivalent of 4 1st round draft picks in this. Ridgeway is a guy who is going to need a season or so more to be an amazing receiver but what we have seen so far in the first few seasons of this league is that Speed Kills. Ridgeway stands 6’1” 95 spd, 93 agi, 94, acc. He is a guy that can change the dive at any time himself, getting behind the defense and take a catch to the house with just the slightest of edges on his defender. The Vikings gave up the most coveted Wide Receiver in the league and got back a guy who can have very similar impacts in the offense as Moss did. To be honest, Moss didn't overly dominate in the first 3 seasons in the league. He currently sits 27th all time in catches, 19th all time in yards but has been able to get into the endzone more than anyone else with far less targets with 33 touchdowns and leads Patriots WR Dion Branch by 3 in that category. The Vikings have proved with their top notch run game that they don't have to have Randy Moss dominate a game to win. Is Moss going to bring that much of an addition to the Steelers offense to be worth losing all that capital? They also swapped QB’s in an effort to help that trading away QB Kyle Boller in a later trade to the Bills and got Luke McCown from the Saints to replace him. McCown is a really smart player but his arm strength is going to be a weakness and I think that also could hurt the potential for deep passes and Moss could suffer, he will have to break some long passes over the middle with his speed and agility rather than just purely going down the sidelines. The other major concern is if McCown will survive the season, a 4 Injury is horrendous and even with the 25k AP boost it still will be a major concern any time he gets hit or sacked and he will be behind an offensive line that did let Kyle Boller go down 43 times last year for a sack. Its going to give anyone a bit of anxiety any time he gets hit hoping he doesn't go down hurt. The Steelers also have a lot of holes to fill between free agency and the draft and their current highest picks are 2.16 and 2.26, and currently only $9.83M to work with. I know Wade has a plan and it'll be interesting to see what he has up his sleeve that we don't know about yet to pull it off.
WASHINGTON / NEW ENGLAND
Washington sends QB Patrick Ramsey, 1.26 and 3.15 l New England send QB David Garrard
APOLO: Patriots - Green Flag / Redskins Yellow Flag
My expression when saw that deal was Hooray! I’ve been tempting Scott to keep playing QB Ramsey, personally I think he has an already broke progression curve and no matter what will never be a quality starter, it took Washington 3 seasons to do a change, and the move is for a 28 yo backup QB with 73 awr? Where do I sign that?! As Cowboys GM I do love this move, if I were a Redskins fan would feel very confused about it, he’s not a QB that place them in a contention spot, and is not a QB that represents the future of the position for them, and it comes with the price of a 1st round? I don’t get the move but I guess there’s a plan and likely is an attempt to extend GM contract, yet, losing the best player of the team on Bailey deal, and theoritically start a rebuild and move for a veteran backup QB, seems as a risky move, for the Patriots the flag could not be other than Green, Rob did a great move here, and this move did start a couple seasons ago where he grabbed an scramble David Garrard that displayed some kind of potential, he did convert him, and applied a couple of TC, he was a solid backup during his time on New England but as was expected the final play was going to be a trade, I think some GM around the league are understamiting how few QB league has at the moment, and how often QB injuries happen, so at least personally I think is one of the safest and most profitable investments, Rob saw this coming, and played his cards really well, another SB travel coming soon for Pats.
ERIK: NEW ENGLAND – Green Flag l WASHINGTON – YELLOW FLAG WITH RED STRIPES
What I will say is I really like how this deal turned out for the New England Patriots, they got MAX value out of what is a backup Quarterback for them. Yes Garrard did have to step in this season for the injured Tom Brady and honestly didn't do that bad completing over 55% of his passes he never was going to be a threat for the starting job and to be able to get a haul back like this HAS to feel good. Ramsey himself is a very serviceable backup in his own right but is hitting the age where he just isn't going to be worth trying to develop him into a starter and this will probably be how he keeps himself on some rosters the next couple seasons. His contract is up at the end of the season but I got a feeling Rob really doesn't care about that nor do I think he expects Ramsey to be on the roster by the trade deadline. I think this move positioned him to get Max value out of Garrard and then be able to turn around and offer up Ramsey to any team that starts having injury issues as the season goes on and teams get desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive thus getting him a 2nd haul back for Ramsey and could truly turn Garrard into at least a 1st round pick plus 2nds depending on what he can get from Ramsey mid season. Desperation can make a team overpay for a player who may not be worth it to the league but worth it to a team that needs a few wins to get an extra GM contract or who knows they have to blow up the roster the following season and THIS is the window they have to try and win.
As far as this deal goes from the Washington standpoint, I'm gonna go with a bit of caution here. I like the idea of moving off Ramsey and getting someone else in to start a new era in Washington and get this team over the hump. They are a team that has steadily made steps each year to improve their record in a division that has some tough rosters. I don't hate Garrard I just think the price to get him there was too much for what the return is. The great thing about him is that he is signed for 5 full seasons at a reasonable price for a QB, the bad thing is you only get 2 seasons out of him before he starts regressing and he isn't the most talented to begin with. Ramsey was on the last year of his contract and that on top of a lot of other expiring contracts puts you in a real tough spot where you really don't wanna waste a restructure on someone who isn't your future but also dont wanna lose a valuable asset. Looking back on things and using a couple other offseason trades as a gauge, Derrick Anderson and Kyle Boller both went for a 1st plus a late round pick, and Garrard may do better this year both both the latter are young and are going to be rising up quickly as they get more experienced in the league and have a top of upside. A 1st and a 3rd would have been still a bit high for Garrard but it would have at least made a bit more sense and you still can get value back by moving Ramsey at some point in the season. Or kept the 1st with the intention of drafting a Rookie QB and developing them from scratch when it seems like there will be quite a bit of talent at the QB position later on in the 1st round. This wasn't the worst trade of the offseason but this is one where I think Washington could have ended up with more assets at the end of it then they did. I do think Garrard will have a nice season in Washington with 3 Wide Receivers who can be a real handful to try and cover and can strike deep quick on top of having a great running game to keep the pressure off the passing game from having to do everything. Overall though I think New England really got the better end of this and will use those picks and Ramsey as a trade asset and get quite a bit of value when its all said and done.
