Revisiting the 2004 First Round: Two Seasons Later
Two seasons is usually enough for the first real outline of a draft class to emerge. Not the final judgment, not the full career verdict, but the early shape of things. By this point, you can usually see who is climbing, who is stalling, who is being developed with patience and purpose, and who is being mishandled by a franchise that still does not quite know what it has.
What stands out most here is not just production. It is development philosophy. Some teams clearly understand how to nurture talent over time, especially at positions where awareness matters most. Others seem to spread points in every direction except the one that would actually unlock the player. That difference shows up quickly. It shows up in progression, it shows up in role, and eventually it shows up on the field.
This version of the article also adds another layer to the evaluation: NOVR, or Norbi’s OVR. NOVR is my own percentile-based player grade built from historical SFL production by position. In simple terms, it is meant to show how strong a player’s profile looks compared to the historical statistical pool, not just how the in-game OVR happens to rate him. That makes it much more useful to me than default OVR, because OVR can often lag behind real impact, overrate the wrong traits, or miss the difference between empty ratings and actual production. NOVR is not just a number for style points. It is a cleaner way of showing where a player really stands historically at his position.
Because NOVR is percentile-based, it also gives us a second way to judge draft value. A player sitting in the 90s after being drafted in the 20s or later is a huge win. On the other hand, a player sitting around 80 after being taken in the top 10 is usually a sign that the return has been underwhelming relative to draft capital. (Certain positions like CB and QB are exceptions.)So alongside the usual production and development discussion, NOVR helps frame which picks are outperforming their slot and which ones are not really living up to where they were taken.
What follows is a full pick-by-pick revisit of the 2004 first round, now viewed two seasons later through the lens of performance, progression, usage, development, and overall value relative to draft position. | | PICK | TEAM | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | | 1.01 |  | QB Philip Rivers | Rivers has already had a turbulent start to his career, and now the chaos has continued with a move to Houston as part of a major trade package. His first two seasons were rocky, and if anything, his sophomore year was even more discouraging than his rookie one. He went from 8 TDs and 12 INTs to 10 TDs and 24 INTs, which is a brutal direction for a young quarterback to take. Maybe the playbook was a disaster for him, maybe the system never matched his strengths, or maybe the organization simply lost patience too early. In terms of progression, only 7 points into AWR and 4 into THA is not nearly enough for a young quarterback you want to build around. Developing QBs is hard, but that is exactly why teams need to be aggressive about finding the right playbook and right environment early.
NOVR: 79
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.02 |  | QB Eli Manning | Manning’s start has been interrupted by injuries, missing 16 of a possible 32 games, which makes it harder to judge him cleanly. Even so, there are encouraging signs here. The Chargers appear to have found a gameplan and system that actually fits him, and an 87.2 average QB rating with 21 TDs against 10 INTs is more than respectable under those circumstances. His progression also looks healthy: 13 points into AWR and 4 into THA is exactly the kind of foundation you want to see after two seasons. If he had stayed healthy, there is every chance his early career would already look even stronger.
NOVR: 86
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.03 |  | FS/CB Sean Taylor | Taylor is still in Detroit, and from the beginning it was obvious he had monster potential. The size-speed combination was outrageous the moment he entered the league, and two seasons later he already looks like exactly the kind of defensive weapon people imagined on draft night. Thirty-seven deflections with only 9 catches allowed across two seasons is absurd. That is not just good production, that is the profile of a player who is already warping passing games. Add in 13 AWR progression and 3 more points in catch, and this is the kind of development path franchises dream about.
NOVR: 93
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.04 |  | MLB Jonathan Vilma | Vilma is still in Houston and has already stacked two highly productive seasons. Back-to-back years of 119 and 120 tackles, plus 25 TFL combined, is serious work in the middle of a defense. He also added 3 INTs and a touchdown last season, which makes the profile even stronger. His 2004 season was so good that it earned him the PPI award as the best MLB in the league at 119.7 PPI, and his 2005 follow-up at 111.1 PPI was still excellent. That is exactly the kind of performance arc you want from a cornerstone linebacker. The only reason this is not a higher development grade is because only 10 AWR points feels a little light for someone producing at this level. Still, the future remains very bright.
NOVR: 88
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.05 |  | WR Larry Fitzgerald | Fitzgerald remains in Cleveland, and while the raw production is respectable, the development path is the real story here. Two seasons over 700 yards and 7 total touchdowns is fine, but not overwhelming. His PPI marks of 76.1 and 79.9 place him in roughly the same tier both years: useful, but not yet special. The real concern is the point allocation. Dumping 11 points into catch while only giving him 3 in awareness is exactly the kind of approach that slows down a young receiver’s bigger leap. You can improve hands all you want, but if the mental side lags behind, the full player never really arrives.
NOVR: 94
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.06 |  | WR Reggie Williams | Williams is still a Giant, and his first two seasons have been quietly strong. He nearly broke 1,000 yards as a rookie with 925 and 6 TDs, good for an 89.9 PPI, then followed it up with 1,072 yards and 11 touchdowns in year two, which pushed him to 106.9 PPI. That is a healthy step forward and exactly what you want to see from a first-round receiver. His progression has been decent, though not perfect: 5 points into AWR and 8 into CTH. The production says he is on a solid track, but the development still feels like it could have been aimed a little more sharply.
NOVR: 89
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.07 |  | CB DeAngelo Hall | Hall is still a Bengal, and his first two years tell the classic rookie-corner story. Year one was rough: 13 deflections, 42 catches allowed, and a very low 24.2 PPI. But year two brought a major rebound, with 26 deflections, 43 catches allowed, and an 83.5 PPI that finally looked like a real step forward. The organization handled his progression the right way too: 15 points straight into awareness. For a young corner, that is exactly how you build the foundation. His rookie season was messy, but the development plan itself was spot on.
NOVR: 87
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.08 |  | QB Cody Pickett | Pickett is still a Raven, and if there is one thing clear here, it is that Baltimore committed to him. I know my own philosophy here: if I am rebuilding, I stick with the quarterback and see it through. All his progression went straight into awareness, pushing him from 60 to 76, which is exactly the route I like. His rookie year was healthy and gave the Ravens 2,746 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The 59.2 PPI is below average overall, but for a rookie passer, it is at least a workable base. His second season being cut short by injury clouds the evaluation a bit, but the developmental direction itself is strong.
NOVR: 82
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.09 |  | WR Roy Williams | Williams remains in Carolina, and his first two seasons have both been respectable. An 843-yard, 5-touchdown rookie year produced an 81.9 PPI, and his sophomore follow-up with 927 yards and 4 touchdowns landed at 85.9 PPI. That is solid, useful receiver production, even if it has not yet exploded into star territory. His progression path looks healthy too, with 10 points into awareness and 4 into catch. That is a sensible split and a sign the Panthers have at least kept him on the right developmental road.
NOVR: 94
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.10 |  | CB Ahmad Carroll | Still in Miami, Carroll had the kind of rookie season many young corners have: chaotic, uneven, but not hopeless. His 15 deflections, 39 catches allowed, and 3 INTs were worth a respectable 55.2 PPI. In his second year, he looked much more comfortable, jumping to 24 deflections, 32 catches allowed, 3 INTs, and a touchdown, which brought him all the way to 95.0 PPI. That is a serious jump. The development path was decent too, with 11 points into awareness, though I still think there was room to be even more aggressive.
NOVR: 80
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.11 | | CB Nathan Vasher | Vasher is still a Charger, and his early career arc is exactly what you want to see from a young defensive back. His rookie season had some rough edges, which is normal when your awareness is sitting below 60 for most of the year, but 14 deflections, 36 catches allowed, 3 INTs, and 2 touchdowns still gave him a solid 71.3 PPI. Then the sophomore leap came: 18 deflections, only 26 catches allowed, 5 INTs, 2 touchdowns, and a 104.6 PPI. That is a real breakout. The 15 points into awareness tell the rest of the story. The Chargers handled him exactly right.
NOVR: 87
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.12 |  | WR Rashaun Woods | Woods is still in Tampa Bay, and his rookie season was a beauty: 1,257 yards, 12 touchdowns, and a top-five 111.4 PPI. His sophomore season cooled off a little, but 1,045 yards and 9 TDs still produced a strong 97.8 PPI. The raw production says this was a good pick. The development is trickier. He earned 15 points, which usually would be enough for a strong mark, but because he entered the league so raw, only 6 points into awareness still leaves him at just 60 AWR while catch is only 71. The athletic gifts are carrying him, but the developmental foundation still feels thinner than it should.
NOVR: 83
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.13 |  | LT Tyson Clabo | Clabo is still a Chief, but the first two years have not been encouraging. A rookie season of 49 pancakes and 6 sacks allowed produced a poor 40.7 PPI, and year two was not any better with 50 pancakes and 8 sacks allowed for a 36.5 PPI. The progression is also only half-convincing. Nine points into awareness is useful, and getting him to 73 AWR matters, but other points going into blocking skills without a clear leap on the field leaves this feeling unfinished rather than convincing.
NOVR: 88
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.14 |  | LOLB Gilbert Gardner | Gardner is still a Jet, but the start has been slow and uneven. He was a reserve in his first year, then seems to have lost time to injury in year two. The talent is still there, but the trajectory is murky. Six points into awareness and five into tackling is not terrible, but it also does not scream urgency or direction. This is one of those cases where there is not enough on-field evidence yet to say it is working.
NOVR: 79
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.15 |  | HB Steven Jackson | Jackson is still with Dallas and already has a ring to his name. He nearly reached 1,000 yards as a rookie, then broke through with 1,240 in year two. His first season’s 67.9 PPI sits around average, while the second-year jump to 88.1 PPI shows real progress. Development-wise, the split is pretty nice: 15 into break tackle and 7 into awareness. For a back, that is a healthy path. The Cowboys have given him room to grow, and he looks like a player whose best years are still ahead.
NOVR: 95
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.16 | | WR Ernest Wilford | Wilford is still a Texan, and his career opened with a very impressive first step. He posted 944 yards and 12 touchdowns as a rookie, good for a powerful 97.1 PPI. That is the kind of immediate impact every team dreams about from a first-round receiver. His second season was interrupted by injury around the 10-week mark, which is deeply unfortunate because it cuts short what could have been another breakout campaign. Even with that, the progression looks strong: 7 points into awareness and 10 into catch. Houston has handled him the right way.
NOVR: 81
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.17 |  | DT Vince Wilfork | Wilfork is still a Bear, and the on-field production has actually been good. His rookie line of 30 tackles, 9 TFL, and 2 sacks was worth 86.2 PPI, and his second season improved again with 33 tackles, 4 TFL, and 6 sacks for an excellent 100.0 PPI. The player is clearly doing his part. That is exactly why the development grade is frustrating. Only 5 AWR points in two seasons is not enough for a player performing at this level. The production is speaking loudly, but the progression plan has not kept pace.
NOVR: 84
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.18 | | SS Michael Boulware | Boulware is still a Panther and has been one of the real success stories of the class so far. His rookie season already looked excellent, with 53 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 14 deflections for a 99.7 PPI. Then he followed it up with an even bigger sophomore year: 83 tackles, 5 INTs, 14 DFL, and a tremendous 115.1 PPI. That is star-level output. Add 12 points into awareness and 5 into tackling, and this looks exactly like a player being handled the right way.
NOVR: 89
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.19 |  | DT Tommie Harris | Harris is still in Seattle and got off to a very strong start. His rookie year brought 37 tackles, 5 TFL, and 9 sacks, which turned into an excellent 109.6 PPI. His second season slipped a bit to 40 tackles, 4 TFL, and 5 sacks, which is still an above-average 84.4 PPI. So the production is good, but the overall direction feels a little uneven. Six points into awareness and six into tackling is decent, though not spectacular. It is a fair plan, but not one that feels especially aggressive for a player with this upside.
NOVR: 89
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.20 |  | ROLB Raheem Orr | Orr is still in Jacksonville. His rookie season was quiet, with 41 tackles and 6 TFL for a below-average 61.2 PPI, but year two was clearly better. He reached 47 tackles, 9 TFL, 4 sacks, and even chipped in an interception, which lifted him to a solid 90.3 PPI. The progression is fine rather than inspiring: 6 points into awareness and 7 into tackling. There is nothing disastrous here, but it still feels more steady than impressive.
NOVR: 79
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.21 |  | DT Darnell Dockett | Dockett opened with 29 tackles, 5 TFL, and 3 sacks, which is basically an average rookie season at 68.1 PPI. His second year got a little better, with 26 tackles, 3 TFL, and 6 sacks for an 80.1 PPI. So the player is at least trending upward. The problem is that the progression is nowhere near where it should be. Only 3 points into awareness and 2 into tackling across two seasons is far too passive for a player with this sort of ceiling.
NOVR: 77
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.22 |  | WR Michael Clayton | Clayton’s rookie year was wrecked by injuries, limiting him to 551 yards and 3 touchdowns. But the second season was a loud bounce-back: 1,326 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a top-10 level 113.1 PPI. That kind of jump changes the entire outlook of a player. Eight points into awareness and eight into catch is a strong enough progression path as well, so this now looks far more like a hit than a disappointment.
NOVR: 83
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.23 |  | SS Bob Sanders | Sanders is still in Denver, and his rookie year was phenomenal. Seventy-seven tackles, 2 INTs, 2 touchdowns, and a 118.9 PPI made him the second-best strong safety performance of the season. His sophomore year was less explosive, but 82 tackles and 2 forced fumbles still kept him useful, even if the 81.2 PPI was a big step down. The progression, though, looks excellent: 16 points into awareness and 3 into tackling. That is the kind of developmental commitment you want to see from a team that knows what it has.
NOVR: 93
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.24 | | TE Erik Jensen | Jensen gave the Bengals an average rookie season with 412 yards and 2 touchdowns for a 76.1 PPI, then followed it with a much better second year: 530 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 93.9 PPI. So the player is moving in the right direction. The challenge is that he came out of the draft very raw, with both awareness and catch lagging behind, and his progression has not fully solved that problem. Three points into awareness and eight into catch is acceptable, but for this kind of prospect, it still feels more cautious than decisive.
NOVR: 83
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.25 | | CB Jeremy LeSueur | LeSueur is still a Texan. His rookie year was only okay, with 14 deflections, 39 catches allowed, and a safety for a weak 46.9 PPI. Year two improved to 21 deflections, 41 catches allowed, 2 INTs, and a touchdown, producing an 80.3 PPI. So the performance is moving upward. The problem is the development strategy. Putting 13 points into catch while only giving him 4 in awareness is exactly the kind of split I dislike for a corner. His awareness was already solid enough coming out of the draft, yes, but even then, I would still rather push it higher than overinvest in catch, where the difference between bad and less bad rarely changes the player the way people think it does.
NOVR: 73
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.26 |  | LT Sean Bubin | Bubin is still with the Saints. His rookie year was just below the average line, with 60 pancakes and 4 sacks allowed for a 61.3 PPI. Then his second season was cut short by a season-ending injury, which makes the total evaluation more difficult. Even so, the development plan itself is what concerns me most. This is the same issue I bring up again and again with young linemen: if the awareness is still low, then pumping a ton of points into blocking attributes is not the best use of resources. Three points into awareness, leaving him at just 61, while PBK and RBK soaked up 13 points is not the route I would take.
NOVR: 83
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.27 |  | RT Max Starks | Starks is still with the Eagles, and being thrown in as a rookie right tackle is never easy. The results show it. His first season brought 54 pancakes but 10 sacks allowed, good for just 37.1 PPI. The second season was only a slight improvement with 57 pancakes and 9 sacks allowed, which still left him down at 41.2 PPI. Once again, the development route follows the pattern I do not like: not enough emphasis on awareness, too much focus on blocking skills too early. That is a path that often looks busy in progression but thin in actual results.
NOVR: 84
Development grade: Underdeveloped | | 1.28 |  | CB Keith Smith | Smith is still with the Rams and his first two years follow the familiar young-corner pattern: struggle first, improve second. His rookie year was rough, with 11 deflections, 25 catches allowed, 1 interception, and a touchdown for a weak 44.9 PPI. But year two brought real improvement: 24 deflections, 44 catches allowed, 2 INTs, another TD, and a 76.4 PPI. More importantly, as far as I can tell, the Rams put their points where they should have: directly into awareness. From 56 to 69 already is exactly the type of investment I like to see in a young corner.
NOVR: 81
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.29 |  | WR Bernard Berrian | Berrian is still in Buffalo, and his rookie season was spectacular. 1,619 yards and 17 touchdowns is outrageous production, and the 119.3 PPI made it the best WR season in the class. His second season dropped off, likely because of the arrival of Craphonso Thorpe, but 908 yards and 10 touchdowns still produced a strong 90.3 PPI. The development path has also been very solid: 13 points into awareness and 7 into catch. There is nothing to complain about here. This is exactly the kind of early return teams hope for when they spend a first-rounder on a wideout.
NOVR: 84
Development grade: Well developed | | 1.30 | | HB Chris Perry | Perry is still in Tampa, and his first two years have been a mix of frustration and recovery. His rookie year was wrecked by injuries, but he bounced back in year two with 1,060 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 5 fumbles for a solid 91.4 PPI. By my way of looking at halfbacks, awareness is not the key driver here. For runners, the real priorities are usually break tackle and carrying. He got 9 points into carrying, which is a good start, but from here on out I would want to see the rest hammer BTK hard.
NOVR: 91
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.31 | | RT Jason Peters | Peters is still a Dolphin, and his first two seasons could not have looked more different. In year one, while playing left tackle, he was phenomenal: 82 pancakes, 4 sacks allowed, and a 98.9 PPI. That is high-end tackle play. Then the switch to the right side in year two went badly, with only 47 pancakes and a brutal 18 sacks allowed for a 19.6 PPI. That is not just a step back, that is a collapse. Development-wise, 10 points into awareness is at least respectable, but the second season clearly did a lot of damage to the overall picture.
NOVR: 88
Development grade: Somewhat developed | | 1.32 | | CB Shawntae Spencer | Spencer was traded to the Browns last offseason after opening his career in Buffalo. His rookie year with the Bills was very solid for a young corner: 15 deflections, 23 catches allowed, 3 interceptions, and a touchdown for an 83.3 PPI. His second season looked very similar in spirit, with 24 deflections, 39 catches allowed, 3 INTs, and 1 TD for an 87.5 PPI. That kind of consistency matters. His progression was respectable too, with 12 points into awareness. He may not have exploded, but the developmental base is clearly there.
NOVR: 84
Development grade: Somewhat developed | Quick class takeaway:
Two years in, this class already looks like a fascinating mix of stars, near-misses, and developmental cautionary tales. There is real top-end talent here. Sean Taylor already looks terrifying. Jonathan Vilma has already posted a 119.7 PPI award-winning season and followed it with a 111.1 PPI encore. Bernard Berrian’s rookie 119.3 PPI season was absurdly good. Michael Boulware’s sophomore 115.1 PPI leap turned him into one of the true success stories of the class. Bob Sanders nearly touched the top of the position with a 118.9 PPI rookie season. A few others, like Eli Manning, Steven Jackson, Nathan Vasher, and Ernest Wilford, look like players whose trajectories are still moving in the right direction.
But what really stands out is how often development itself became the deciding factor. This class is full of examples where the raw player was good enough, yet the progression plan either accelerated the rise or slowed it down. Awareness still looks like the great separator for many positions, especially quarterbacks, corners, linebackers, and linemen. Teams that understood that seem to be ahead. Teams that tried to spread points in the wrong directions now look like they left value on the table.
NOVR vs draft slot:
NOVR also gives this class a very useful second reading. Some players already look like major value picks relative to where they were drafted. Steven Jackson at pick 1.15 with a 95 NOVR looks like outstanding value. Bob Sanders at 1.23 with a 93 NOVR looks like a massive hit. Sean Taylor at 1.03 with a 93 NOVR is one of the few truly elite top-three outcomes in the class. Michael Boulware at 1.18 with an 89 NOVR looks excellent for that range. Reggie Williams at 1.06 with an 89 NOVR still looks like a strong first-round return. Nathan Vasher at 1.11 with an 87 NOVR is a very healthy outcome, and Shawntae Spencer at 1.32 with an 84 NOVR looks like very nice late-first value. Even Bernard Berrian at 1.29 with an 84 NOVR and Ernest Wilford at 1.16 with an 81 NOVR still come out looking like strong or at least solid returns for where they were taken.
On the other side, a few high selections do not look quite as strong once NOVR is added to the picture. Philip Rivers at 1.01 with a 79 NOVR is simply not what you want from the first overall pick, no matter how much context you add. Cody Pickett at 1.08 with an 82 NOVR is still respectable, but for a top-10 quarterback it is not a clear win yet. Ahmad Carroll at 1.10 with an 80 NOVR feels more average than special. Gilbert Gardner at 1.14 with a 79 NOVR still looks more uncertain than convincing. Darnell Dockett at 1.21 with a 77 NOVR clearly looks disappointing relative to where he was selected. Jeremy LeSueur at 1.25 with a 73 NOVR also sits on the wrong side of value, and that number makes the pick look even weaker than the surface stats already suggest.
That is what makes NOVR useful here. It helps separate “good player” from “good value at this draft slot.” A player can still be useful and not really justify where he was picked. Another player can be less flashy on paper but still look like a major success because he returned far more than you normally expect from that part of the round. Looking at both development and NOVR together gives a much cleaner picture of who is truly beating the board and who is still trying to catch up to it.
So the early verdict on the 2004 first round is this: the talent was definitely there. The bigger question is which franchises truly knew what to do with it, and which ones are only now starting to realize what they should have had all along. |
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