More or Less: 2005 vs 2006 Draft Class
More or Less, where I will be looking back at the 2005 draft class and predicting if there will be more or less players at each position drafted in the 1st round this year.
QB
Drafted in 2005:
Alex Smith (1st Overall; Jets)
Aaron Rodgers (2nd Overall; Bears)
Andrew Walter (18th Overall; Panthers)
Derek Anderson (19th Overall; Raiders)
Four teams selected QBs in 2005, all but Derek Anderson will return to their teams as starters. Derek Anderson was traded to the Jaguars for the 17th overall pick, and then flipped to the Buccaneers for the 13th overall pick. The Jaguars own the 7th overall pick and are expected to take a QB at that spot, the Raiders have also shown interest in taking a QB with the 17th pick. QBs Vince Young and Jay Cutler are locks to go in the first round. Vince Young has 59 AWR, 97 THP, and 96 THA, giving him an elite ceiling even if it may take some time for his awareness to develop. Jay Cutler also has a rocket arm with 54 AWR, 97 THP, and 91 THA. 2005 had three clear 1st round QBs, while I believe 2006 only has two. If only two QBs go in the 1st round, that will be the lowest number of QBs in the 1st round in this leagues history. I don't believe that will be the case as there will likely be one surprise QB drafted early. Kellen Clemons has 58 AWR, 90 THP, 87 THA, and is a potential to go in the mid-late 1st. If a team wants a QB with a big arm, Brad Smith is another option with 52 AWR, 97 THP, 82 THA. There are a couple different teams that could look to go QB in the 1st. The Raiders seem to be targeting a QB, but if the Browns take Cutler with the 10th overall pick they could pivot. It's also possible they find another QB they like and draft them, they traded Derek Anderson for the 17th overall pick and it seems possible that they plan to draft his replacement with the pick. The Chiefs are another potential team, although they may opt to build around QB Byron Leftwich. They have four 1st round picks, and if they really like a QB they may opt to find Leftwich's successor.
Prediction: Less Drafted in the 1st Round
RB
Drafted in 2005:
Frank Gore (17th Overall; Bears)
Ronnie Brown (24th Overall; Broncos)
RB does not have great positional value in the 1st round, and that showed with only two RBs being drafted in the 1st round last year. Both players made an impact right away with Frank Gore having 1,200 rushing yards and Ronnie Brown having over 1,000 all purpose yards. The clear RB1 in the 2006 draft class is DeAngelo Williams, who has 96 SPD, 64 AWR, 81 CAR. An RB needy team who feels they are close to contending may take him in the 1st round as he can be an instant impact player that same was Gore and Brown were for their respective teams. There are a few other RBs that have a chance to go early, but I think Williams is the only RB that will potentially go in the 1st round. Although the earlier he goes could impact what happens with the rest of the RB class.
Prediction: Less Drafted in the 1st Round
WR
Drafted in 2005:
Braylon Edwards (3rd Overall; Redskins)
Vincent Jackson (4th Overall; Chargers)
Matt Jones (5th Overall; Saints)
Larry Brackins (7th Overall; Falcons)
Craphonso Thorpe (23rd Overall; Bills)
Dante Ridgeway (26th Overall; Steelers)
Tab Perry (28th Overall; Cowboys)
Jerome Mathis (31st Overall; Jets)
The 2005 class had a massive amount of WRs taken early, with eight going in the 1st round. Craphonso Thorpe, who was considered a surprise pick, led all rookies in receiving yards with over 1,700 yards and 13 TDs. No other WR taken in the 1st round surpassed 1,000 yards in their rookie season. Dante Ridgeway, who was originally drafted by the Steelers, was traded to the Vikings as part of the blockbuster Randy Moss deal. The 2006 WR class is significantly weaker than the 2005 class. Brandon Marshall headlines the class standing at 6'5 with 97 SPD, 52 AWR, and 83 CTH. He is expected to go in the top 5 of the draft, and is the clear cut top WR. Greg Jennings will likely be the 2nd WR taken in the draft, he has 99 SPD, 59 AWR, 80 CTH. He has a good chance to go in the top 10 to a WR needy team, if he falls outside the top 10 he likely won't fall very fall. The rest of the class is a tier below the top two guys, there are a lot of players with specific skillsets. Where each of those players go will depend on what teams are looking for in their WRs. Marques Colston is probably the most likely WR to go in the 1st round outside of the top two, as he is 6'5 and has 87 SPD. It will be nearly impossible for this class to have more WRs drafted in the 1st round than last year, unless there is a run on them in the late 1st.
Prediction: Less Drafted in the 1st Round
TE
Drafted in 2005:
Heath Miller (29th Overall; Bears)
Only one TE was taken in the 1st last year, in Heath Miller. Miller had a great rookie season with 1,000 receiving yards and 11 TDs. While Miller was a good TE prospect, this class has some TEs with even more upside. Leonard Pope is a unicorn, he's 6'8 264 lbs and has 90 SPD, 92 AGI, 97 JMP. He has the potential to be the biggest matchup nightmare in the league. Positional value may prevent him from going in the top 10, but he's a lock to go in the 1st and should be taken early. Vernon Davis is another good TE prospect in this class, he has 86 SPD, 90 AGI, 99 ACC he should be taken at some point in the first round. Garrett Mills is built more like a WR but he is the fastest TE in this class with 92 SPD, 72 STR, and 78 CTH. He could go in the 1st if a team really likes his speed, although he may be more of a 2nd round target. Anthony Fasano is another TE who is a 1st round candidate, he has 86 SPD, 84 STR, and 73 CTH. This class has a lot of really good TEs and I think it's about a lock that there will be 2-3 TEs drafted in the 1st round.
Prediction: More Drafted in the 1st Round
OL
Drafted in 2005:
Jammal Brown (7th Overall; Dolphins)
Michael Roos (10th Overall: Bills)
Adam Terry (12th Overall; 49ers)
Richie Incognito Jr. (20th Overall; Seahawks)
Wesley Britt (27th Overall; Buccaneers)
OL is a difficult position to predict as teams have vastly different evaluations of the position. Some teams consider it to be just as valuable as QB, while others view it as an afterthought. It's not the exciting pick and many teams would rather go for playmakers, which is understandable. Five OL went in the 1st round last year, this year could be even more unpredictable. A lot of the OL in this class don't separate themselves from one another, personal preference will determine where each player is selected. Some teams may opt to wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to add OL as the class has a solid amount of options, and getting good value could be a good strategy. There is a wide range of outcomes for how many OL go in the 1st round, there could only be a few, or it could push double digits. It will be interesting to see which teams value OL, and which teams opt to go with playmakers.
Predication: More Drafted in the 1st Round
DT
Drafted in 2005:
None
This is an easy position to predict, as there wasn't a single DT taken in the 1st round last year. The Ravens drafted the first one, taking Anthony Bryant with the 36th overall pick. Bryant had a great rookie season, ending up with 8 sacks and was a reliable force on the IDL. DT is similar to OL in that not every team is going to value the position the same. Some teams may be comfortable waiting until the middle rounds of the draft to add them, while others may view it as a priority. Haloti Ngata and Kyle Williams are locks to go in the 1st round. Ngata is massive at 6'3 340 lbs, and has 69 SPD, 90 STR, and 93 TKL. Williams has 72 SPD, 90 STR, and 90 TKL, both will turn into forces on the IDL for whatever team drafts them.
Prediction: More Drafted in the 1st Round
DE
Drafted in 2005:
None
Similarly to DT, this is an easy position to predict as their was no DE taken in the 1st round in 2005. I think there will be a few taken early this year. Mario Williams has the potential to be the first one taken, he's only 21 years old and has 78 SPD, 87 STR, and 86 AGI. Williams is 6'6 300 lbs and has the ability to play DE in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. Victor Adeyanju is the most athletic DE in the class, he has 91 SPD, 79 AGI, 82 ACC. Williams and Adeyanju both have a good chance of being taken early in the 1st round, and there's a good chance there will be others taken later.
Prediction: More Drafted in the 1st Round
LB
Drafted in 2005:
Alfred Fincher (9th Overall; Giants)
Derrick Johnson (11th Overall; Chiefs)
Shawn Merriman (14th Overall; Ravens)
Lofa Tatupu (15th Overall; Bills)
Leroy Hill (30th Overall; Broncos)
This is another position where value will be different from team to team. This is partly due to the differences in OLB in a 3-4 compared to a 4-3 scheme. A 3-4 OLB is playing on the EDGE, while a 4-3 OLB is playing off ball LB, both have different positional values. This class does have a lot of really fast LBs, which could cause them to be taken early. The Panthers have made it known that they will be selecting LB DeMeco Ryans with the 1st overall pick. He has 91 SPD, 70 AWR, 91 TKL. Ryans will be a starter right away and should be great for the Panthers for a long time. Chad Greenway is also in contention to be the top of the class for LBs who has 99 SPD, 72 STR, 86 TKL, even when factoring in the likelihood of his speed skewing downwards, he should still be great. He has the versatility to play any position on defense, and should be an instant starter even with his 54 AWR. While Ryans will likely be better early on, Greenway has the potential to be the better player a few years into the future.
Prediction: Less Drafted in the 1st Round
CB
Drafted in 2005:
Brandon Browner (16th Overall; Bengals)
Mike Hawkins (21st Overall; Panthers)
Adam Jones (22nd Overall; Jaguars)
Marlin Jackson (25th Overall; Eagles)
Carlos Rogers (32nd Overall; Cowboys)
Last year had a healthy amount of CBs drafted in the 1st, with a total of five. Marlin Jackson was traded to the Redskins in a blockbuster that sent Champ Bailey to the Eagles. Carlos Rogers was traded to the Vikings, and then flipped to the Titans. Antonio Cromartie is the top of this CB class with 90 SPD, 73 AWR, and 72 TKL, it's expected that he will be drafted by the Cardinals with the 2nd overall pick. The rest of the class is more wide open, there are a lot of good options but no one truly separates themselves. Devin Hester has a strong case to be the 2nd CB in this class as he has 95 SPD, 74 CTH and 87 KR. He should be a ball hawk, although he is 24 years old and that could cause him to fall. I think there will be around 3-4 CBs drafted in the 1st round, although there is a possibility for even more.
Prediction: Less Drafted in the 1st Round
S
Drafted in 2005:
Antrel Rolle (6th Overall; Jets)
Kerry Rhodes (13th Overall; Giants)
This seems to be a weaker safety class compared to last year, there isn't a player close to what Antrel Rolle was as a prospect. I think Kerry Rhodes would also be the best safety in this class, he has great size and speed. Danieal Manning could interest someone with his 94 SPD, 71 STR, and 67 TKL, although he is 24 years old and is more likely to go in the middle rounds. There is a chance one of these safeties has good ratings after a private workout and ends up getting drafted in the 1st round, but based off the initial ratings I don't expect any safeties to go early.
Prediction: Less Drafted in the 1st Round
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