| 2006 PTF MOCK DRAFT REVIEW | | Comparing the Round 1 and Round 2 mock against the actual draft |
| HOW TO READ THIS | | Actual Pick (+/-) shows where the actual player was taken compared with where they were mocked. 0 means exact slot. A negative number means the player went earlier than mocked. A positive number means the player went later than mocked. N/M means the player was not mocked in the first two rounds. |
| ROUND 1 MOCK VS ACTUAL | | Pick | Team | Mock Pick | Actual Pick (+/-) | Result | | 1.01 | Panthers | MLB DeMeco Ryans | MLB DeMeco Ryans (0) | ✅ Exact | | 1.02 | Cardinals | CB Antonio Cromartie | CB Antonio Cromartie (0) | ✅ Exact | | 1.03 | Vikings | WR Brandon Marshall | WR Brandon Marshall (0) | ✅ Exact | | 1.04 | Giants | RE Victor Adeyanju | ROLB Chad Greenway (-2) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.05 | Vikings | RT D’Brickashaw Ferguson | QB Vince Young (-38 ) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.06 | Jets | ROLB Chad Greenway | LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (+1) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.07 | Jaguars | ROLB Chris Gocong | QB Jay Cutler (-10) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.08 | Jets | LT Winston Justice | TE Leonard Pope (-5) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.09 | Saints | DT Haloti Ngata | CB Johnathan Joseph (-1) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.10 | Browns | CB Johnathan Joseph | DT Haloti Ngata (+1) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.11 | Chargers | OT Marcus McNeill | LE Mario Williams (-3) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.12 | Bears | CB/KR Devin Hester | CB Devin Hester (0) | ✅ Exact | | 1.13 | Buccaneers | TE Leonard Pope | WR Greg Jennings (-6) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.14 | Redskins | LE Mario Williams | TE Vernon Davis (-2) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.15 | Bears | DT Kyle Williams | SS Donte Whitner (-13) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.16 | Redskins | TE Vernon Davis | DT Kyle Williams (+1) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.17 | Raiders | QB Jay Cutler | CB Jarrett Bush (+20) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.18 | Seahawks | OT Brad Butler | ROLB Chris Gocong (+11) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.19 | Chiefs | WR Greg Jennings | CB Jimmy Williams (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 1.20 | Cardinals | HB DeAngelo Williams | FS Pat Watkins (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 1.21 | Rams | CB Tim Jennings | MLB Gerris Wilkinson (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 1.22 | Redskins | CB Will Blackmon | DT Gabe Watson (-7) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.23 | Packers | OT Andrew Whitworth | LOLB James Anderson (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 1.24 | Colts | C Nick Mangold | MLB A.J. Hawk (-2) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.25 | Ravens | RT Zach Strief | LT Winston Justice (+17) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.26 | Patriots | MLB A.J. Hawk | CB Kelly Jennings (+13) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.27 | Chiefs | MLB D’Qwell Jackson | DT Johnny Jolly (+25) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.28 | Chiefs | SS Donte Whitner | MLB D’Qwell Jackson (+1) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.29 | Packers | DT Gabe Watson | RG Rob Sims (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 1.30 | Broncos | FS Michael Huff | RE Victor Adeyanju (+26) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.31 | Patriots | RE Tamba Hali | HB DeAngelo Williams (+11) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 1.32 | Broncos | RE Jeremy Mincey | LOLB Clint Ingram (+21) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team |
| ROUND 2 MOCK VS ACTUAL | | Pick | Team | Mock Pick | Actual Pick (+/-) | Result | | 2.01 | Panthers | HB Joseph Addai | LT Brad Butler (+15) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.02 | Jets | WR Maurice Stovall | WR Marques Colston (-21) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.03 | Cardinals | OT Jonathan Scott | RE Ryan LaCasse (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.04 | Giants | LOLB Manny Lawson | WR Derek Hagan (-9) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.05 | Chiefs | CB Jarrett Bush | RE Tamba Hali (+6) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.06 | Dolphins | QB Matt Leinart | MLB Stephen Tulloch (-2) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.07 | Lions | CB Kelly Jennings | RE Jeremy Mincey (+7) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.08 | Jaguars | MLB Stephen Tulloch | ROLB Tim McGarigle (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.09 | Saints | FS Antoine Bethea | LT Andrew Whitworth (+18 ) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.10 | Browns | RT Rashad Butler | WR Bennie Brazell (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.11 | Falcons | QB Vince Young | TE Marcedes Lewis (+11) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.12 | Steelers | CB Alvin Nnabuife | WR Domenik Hixon (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.13 | Packers | WR Derek Hagan | RT Guy Whimper (+6) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.14 | Texans | RT Eric Winston | HB Michael Robinson (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.15 | Packers | CB Brent Grimes | FS Danieal Manning (-3) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.16 | Cowboys | RT Charlie Johnson | C Nick Mangold (+24) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.17 | Ravens | ROLB Thomas Howard | MLB Tim Dobbins (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.18 | Seahawks | FS Danieal Manning | SS Dawan Landry (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.19 | Jaguars | RT Guy Whimper | TE Anthony Fasano (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.20 | Bengals | DT Johnny Jolly | TE Garrett Mills (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.21 | Rams | LOLB Clint Ingram | CB Will Blackmon (+31) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.22 | Saints | TE Marcedes Lewis | QB Brodie Croyle (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.23 | Falcons | WR Marques Colston | FS Antoine Bethea (+14) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.24 | Cardinals | SS Roman Harper | K Stephen Gostkowski (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.25 | Ravens | CB Richard Marshall | RT Rashad Butler (+15) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.26 | Steelers | LG Davin Joseph | SS Calvin Lowry (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.27 | Saints | CB Alan Zemaitis | MLB Anthony Schlegel (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.28 | Lions | OT Charles Spencer | HB Joseph Addai (+27) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team | | 2.29 | Ravens | WR Sinorice Moss | RG Eddie Keele (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.30 | Falcons | CB Drew Coleman | DT Jesse Mahelona (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.31 | Patriots | WR Miles Austin | CB DeMario Minter (N/M) | ❌ Miss | | 2.32 | Falcons | C Will Montgomery | QB Matt Leinart (+26) | ➖ Board hit, wrong slot/team |
| ACCURACY SUMMARY | | Measure | Round 1 | Round 2 | Total | | Exact pick, player and team | 4 / 32 | 0 / 32 | 4 / 64 | | Actual player was on the mock board somewhere in R1-R2 | 27 / 32 | 16 / 32 | 43 / 64 | | Actual player not mocked in first two rounds | 5 / 32 | 16 / 32 | 21 / 64 | | Best stretch | The top three were nailed exactly: Ryans to Carolina, Cromartie to Arizona, Marshall to Minnesota. Hester to Chicago at 1.12 was also exact. | | Biggest miss pattern | The mock underestimated how aggressively teams would chase quarterbacks, defensive backs and specific athletic fits. Vince Young, Jay Cutler and several DBs went earlier or to different teams than projected. |
| GM READ ON THE MOCK | The mock was very strong at the very top of the board. The first three picks were exact, and the Cromartie adjustment for Arizona was spot on. That is the part of the draft where the roster logic held best: Carolina needed Ryans, Arizona wanted Cromartie, and Minnesota took the rare 6'5 WR in Brandon Marshall.
After that, the league became more aggressive than projected. The biggest difference was quarterback urgency. The mock had Vince Young and Matt Leinart in Round 2, but Young went 1.05 and Leinart still landed in the second at 2.32. Jay Cutler also went much earlier than the mock at 1.07. That shows the league valued QB upside more aggressively than pure roster-need logic suggested.
The defensive board was directionally decent. Many of the players were on the board, but the order moved hard: Greenway, Mario, Vernon Davis, Donte Whitner, Gabe Watson, A.J. Hawk, D’Qwell Jackson and Victor Adeyanju were all mock-board hits, just taken by different teams or at different points.
Round 2 was much more volatile. That is expected once Round 1 moves caused cascading board changes. The best Round 2 board reads were players like Brad Butler, Marques Colston, Tamba Hali, Stephen Tulloch, Danieal Manning, Will Blackmon, Rashad Butler, Joseph Addai and Matt Leinart being valued inside the first two rounds, even if the team/slot prediction missed. |
| FINAL VERDICT | | The mock was accurate at identifying much of the first-two-round talent pool, with 43 of the 64 actual picks appearing somewhere on the mocked Round 1-2 board. It was strongest at the top, with exact hits on the first three picks and Devin Hester at 1.12. The main weakness was slot/team precision after the early run, especially because the actual league draft chased QB upside, defensive backs and athletic traits more aggressively than the needs-based model projected. |
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