AFC East
1.
New England Patriots
2.
Miami Dolphins
3.
Buffalo Bills
4.
New York Jets
Analysis: Until Tom Brady retires or is traded out of New England, it feels safe to keep picking the
New England Patriots to win the division. They remain the standard in the AFC East, and until something meaningfully changes at the top, it is hard to justify betting against them. The rest of the division may be trying to close the gap, but New England still feels like the team everyone else is chasing.
That said, I do think the
Miami Dolphins could surprise some people this year. This is a team that has been building toward something, and when I look at the roster, I get the sense that it may finally be ready to come into its own. They may not be ready to overtake New England yet, but I do think Miami has enough in place to make the division more interesting and potentially separate itself from the middle of the pack.
Behind them, I have the
Buffalo Bills finishing third. There is still talent on this roster, and I do not think they should be dismissed completely, but I have them pegged to take a step backward this season. Whether that means inconsistency, regression, or simply being passed by a team like Miami, I see Buffalo sliding down a bit compared to where they would like to be.
Finally, I have the
New York Jets at the bottom of the division. I do think the Jets are moving in the correct direction, and there are signs that the organization is building toward something better. However, I still think they are a couple of years away from being truly competitive. For now, this feels like more of a developmental season than one where they are ready to seriously challenge in the AFC East.
AFC North
1.
Baltimore Ravens
2.
Pittsburgh Steelers
3.
Cincinnati Bengals
4.
Cleveland Browns
Analysis: This division feels wide open. Nobody seems fully ready to step away from the rest of the pack, so I have to go with the team that only GM Norbert Huszti can win with: the
Baltimore Ravens. In a division where every team has questions, Baltimore feels like the safest choice simply because they have the GM who has proven he can make this roster work. It may not be pretty, and it may not be dominant, but in the AFC North, that might be enough.
I do think the
Pittsburgh Steelers will be more competitive this season. GM Wade Pearce seems due to find a way to win games that he has not been able to win in previous seasons. Pittsburgh may not be a finished product, but there is a sense that they are moving toward better results. In a division this close, even a modest step forward could put them right in the mix.
Third place seems to belong to the
Cincinnati Bengals. I think they start strong and then falter down the stretch, just like they did last year. There is enough there for Cincinnati to look dangerous early, but I still have questions about whether they can sustain it over the full season. Until they prove otherwise, it is hard not to expect another year where the Bengals show flashes before fading when it matters most.
Last place goes to the
Cleveland Browns, who were way too quiet this offseason, which is a shocker to absolutely no one. They still have way too many holes, and showing up for three days of the draft is not enough to build a winner. Cleveland may have a plan, but from the outside, it is hard to see enough urgency or improvement to believe they are ready to climb out of the basement.
AFC South
1.
Tennessee Titans
2.
Indianapolis Colts
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars
4.
Houston Texans
Analysis: There is one thing nobody should ever want to deal with: GM Bryan Mellon locked and loaded. That is exactly where he and the
Tennessee Titans are right now. This team looks dangerous, prepared, and fully capable of running away with the division if things break even slightly in their favor. In a division with major questions elsewhere, Tennessee feels like the most stable and threatening team at the top.
Part of that confidence comes from the fact that the
Indianapolis Colts are now firmly in the post-Peyton Manning era. The roster is still good, and there is enough talent there for Indianapolis to remain competitive, but it is hard to overlook the obvious question. If this team struggled to win with Manning, I cannot imagine things getting easier without him. The Colts may still be a tough out, but I do not see them keeping pace with Tennessee over the full season.
Third place likely belongs to the
Jacksonville Jaguars. GM Erik Terry-Haag has been very critical of the roster, and I understand why he may not have a ton of confidence heading into the season. That said, I actually think Jacksonville is going to win some games that even he assumes they will not. They may not be ready to contend for the division, but I do think they can be more competitive than expected.
Last place is the
Houston Texans. They were great last year, so putting them here may look harsh, but their new quarterback is Philip Rivers, and, well, let’s just say I have no confidence in him due to personal experience. Houston may still have pieces from last year’s success, but quarterback play changes everything. Until Rivers proves otherwise, I have a hard time seeing the Texans repeating what they accomplished last season.
AFC West
1.
Denver Broncos
2.
San Diego Chargers
3.
Oakland Raiders
4.
Kansas City Chiefs
Analysis: Peyton Manning in an “Orange Crush”
Denver Broncos jersey? Um, yes please. That alone makes Denver one of the most interesting teams in the league this season, and I think Manning is going to take the Broncos right back to the top of the division. In fact, they may be even more dominant than they were last year. Denver already had enough to be taken seriously, and adding Manning to the equation only raises the ceiling.
The
San Diego Chargers will continue to improve, though, and I expect them to be in the Wild Card fight all season. This is a strong roster that is still growing, and that makes them a dangerous second-place team in the AFC West. They may not be ready to catch Denver just yet, but they are good enough to make noise and force the rest of the conference to pay attention.
Then there is some serious separation. I am more inclined to give third place to the
Oakland Raiders, who do have strong players on the roster. The issue is that those strengths do not seem to be at the most important positions, and that makes it hard to trust them over the course of a full season. Oakland can absolutely be competitive in stretches, but I do not see enough consistency in the right places to push them higher.
They do, however, separate themselves from the
Kansas City Chiefs, who may be good enough to get second place in other divisions but end up last here. That says more about the depth of the AFC West than it does about Kansas City being hopeless. The Chiefs are not without ability, but in this division, with Denver at the top and San Diego climbing, there simply is not enough room for them to rise higher.
AFC Playoff Seedings
1.
New England Patriots
2.
Denver Broncos
3.
Baltimore Ravens
4.
Tennessee Titans
5.
Pittsburgh Steelers
6.
Indianapolis Colts
