Wild Card Weekend
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Analysis: The two big upsets here in the Wild Card Round are the
Pittsburgh Steelers taking out Tennessee and the Detroit Lions taking out Atlanta. The Tennessee Titans may enter the postseason with plenty of confidence, but I simply cannot give GM Bryan Mellon any hope to win here. Pittsburgh feels like the kind of team that could make things uncomfortable, and in a playoff setting, that is enough for me to call the upset.
On the NFC side, I do think the Falcons will be good, but the
Detroit Lions may be the best Wild Card team we have ever seen. That makes them extremely dangerous, regardless of where they are seeded. Atlanta may have earned its spot and proven plenty throughout the season, but Detroit feels like a team nobody is going to want to see in the playoffs. Because of that, I have the Lions knocking off the Falcons and advancing.
Beyond those two upsets, I also think the Ravens take out the Colts. Baltimore feels like the safer playoff pick, especially in a matchup where Indianapolis is still dealing with the reality of the post-Peyton Manning era. The Colts may have enough talent to keep things competitive, but I trust Baltimore more in a postseason game.
Finally, the Cowboys easily dispatch the 49ers. San Francisco may be an improved team with a brighter future, but Dallas is the defending Super Bowl champion for a reason. The Cowboys are too good, too complete, and too prepared to let this game become a serious problem. Dallas moves on without much drama.
Divisional Round
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Analysis: We are kind of chalky here in the Divisional Round, with the biggest impact being the defending champion
Dallas Cowboys dispatching the Bears at Soldier Field. Chicago may have earned its way here, and winning the division would already be a major statement, but Dallas is not the kind of team that is going to go away easily. Their roster is good, their championship pedigree matters, and they feel built for this exact kind of road playoff spot.
The other three games set up some great matchups, starting with the Patriots taking out Pittsburgh. The Steelers already made noise by upsetting Tennessee, but New England is a different kind of challenge. Until Tom Brady is no longer in New England, it is hard to pick against the Patriots in a postseason game like this. Pittsburgh’s run ends here, while New England keeps moving.
The Broncos also defeat the Ravens, setting up a major AFC showdown. Baltimore may be the kind of team that can grind out playoff wins, but Peyton Manning in Denver feels like too much to overcome. The Broncos have the talent, the momentum, and the quarterback advantage, and that is enough for me to send them through.
Finally, the Cardinals win a close game with Detroit. This feels like one of the toughest games of the round, especially with how dangerous Detroit looks as a Wild Card team. But if I am picking Arizona to get the first seed in the conference, I have to trust them to survive this kind of matchup. It may not be comfortable, but the Cardinals find a way to advance.
Conference Championships
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Analysis: My ride ends in the NFC Championship, with the
Dallas Cowboys easily smoking my team and making them feel like pretenders. Arizona may have put together a great season and may have earned its place near the top of the conference, but Dallas is still Dallas. They are the defending champions, their roster is excellent, and this feels like the kind of matchup where they remind everyone exactly why they are still the team to beat.
For Arizona, it would be a brutal ending. Getting to the NFC Championship would validate a lot of the belief I had in them coming into the year, but getting handled by Dallas would also show there is still another level to reach. The Cardinals may have arrived as a contender, but the Cowboys prove they are not quite ready to take the throne.
In the AFC, it is not necessarily the most “fun” choice, but I think we see a repeat as well. The Patriots take down the Broncos, with Brady officially beating Manning to make it back to the Super Bowl. Denver will have had a tremendous season with Manning in orange, but New England still feels like the postseason standard.
That gives us the matchup that probably makes the most sense, even if it is not the most surprising one: Cowboys versus Patriots. The defending champions return to defend their crown, while Brady and New England push their way back onto the biggest stage.
Super Bowl XL
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Analysis: New year, same result. I do think New England will keep it closer this year, and with Tom Brady on the other side, there is always a chance that the Patriots make it uncomfortable. They are too experienced and too steady to simply roll over, especially on the biggest stage. This should be a better game than some may expect.
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Dallas Cowboys are stacked, and that is ultimately the difference. They have the best offensive line in the league by far, and that kind of advantage travels into any matchup. In a Super Bowl, where every drive matters and every mistake is magnified, Dallas’ ability to control the game up front gives them the edge.
The Patriots may push them, and Brady may keep New England within striking distance, but Dallas is too complete to pick against. The Cowboys finish the job, win back-to-back Super Bowls, and officially cement themselves as the team everyone else is chasing.
