Forgive me... my skills to format are lacking - hopefully it's still worth a read.
I’m projecting this to be a turning point in the PFL… with 3 seasons behind us and rosters no longer, necessarily, STRONG or WEAK based on the original starting point – I’d say just about ANYTHING goes in the 2006 season.
It’s a HUGE undertaking to evaluate all 32 teams history of where they started and where they find themselves now… and I have no intentions of getting into all those layers of history to try and explain my predictions for the upcoming season [2006].
For the most part… it starts and end with the QB – this is by FAR the most important and influential position in the game. The GOLD standard [AWR = 93 / THA = 93] ranked from the top down…
QB Peyton Manning
QB Tom Brady
QB Drew Brees
QB Daunte Culpepper
QB Donovan McNabb
Honorable mentions [AWR = 90 / THA = 90]…
QB Chad Pennington
QB Michael Vick
Any GM who is worth their salt and has one of these QBs… has NO EXCUSE for missing the playoffs (other than injury). Interestingly enough… the TOP QBs are split very evenly between conferences (AFC 3 / NFC 4) – it’s scary to think how good Vick might be if he were converted to a balanced / pocket passer (at 26 he’s the youngest of the bunch).
With that, I have 7 of the 8 divisions determined – The Patriots, Titans, Broncos, Lions, Cowboys, Falcons & Cardinals are who I’m predicting as Divisional champs! That leaves just needing to determine who will win the AFC North and who the 2 two wild card teams will be in the AFC & NFC.
Lets get the AFC North Divisional champs declared… I’m going to lean on two factors: first, starting QB comparison and second, HISTORY.
QB Ranking…
QB Carson Palmer – on the verge of being ready to make the next step!
QB Cody Pickett – Has the support around him… it doesn’t all fall on him.
QB Luke McCown – Can’t trust he’ll make it through a full season.
QB Tim Couch / David Greene – Uncertainty… Coach isn’t horrible (anymore) but in the twilight of his career and the team trades for a RAW talent that is at least a few seasons away.
History…
2003 = Ravens
2004 = Ravens
2005 = Ravens
Smart money is on the Ravens… simply not enough done by the other three teams to warrant me swaying away from the ONLY team that has ever won the AFC Noth Divisional Championship.
AFC Wild Card Teams
We should start by looking at any teams that made the playoffs last season that haven’t been predicted as the divisional Champs. It’s important to be aware of the potential of a decline, or a continued path of being competitive.
Bills – It seems, the torch is being passed (from Collins to Boller)… slightly concerning – I do think there’s talent on the team that keeps the Bills from falling out of contention though,
Texans – MAJOR concern moving off of Pennington and bringing in Rivers… though this is a LONG view play, I think the Texans take a BIG step back.
Chargers – No major loss in talent… though the team didn’t make a BLOCK BUSTER TRADE to bring in an ELITE talent – the addition of TE Jason Witten, DE Mario Williams (rookie), FS Mike Brown (trade) should be helpful.
Consideration…
Bengals – I like where the team is heading… its fun to imagine where this team could be with a bit more activity from the Front Office.
I think the safest pick as a Wild Card entry… the San Diego Chargers (call it a HOMER pick if you want). The Texans are OUT… when looking at the Bills and Bengals, I’m gonna lean on which team has a better GM - I just have a hard time believing a GM who’s here ALL the time is gonna be out done at the wire.
NFC Wild Card Teams
We should start by looking at any teams that made the playoffs last season that haven’t been predicted as the divisional Champs. It’s important to be aware of the potential of a decline, or a continued path of being competitive.
Packers – Favre is GONE… though Ragone isn’t bad, there’s rumblings that Leinart (rookie) will get playing time – he’s a lefty and that could mean serious STRUGGLES (ouch).
Vikings – Another team that appears to have a changing of the guard (at QB)… rumblings being heard, Young and McNair will split time (at least Young is a Pocket passer and right-handed).
Rams – There are ONLY two teams that can claim they have won their Division EVEY season since the inception of the league – the Rams are one of those teams (the Ravens are the other). Though I have doubts about a divisional championship – I’m not counting them out, just yet.
Consideration…
NO ONE – The Conference lacks any form of depth beyond the top echelon teams (and those teams are even questionable)!
I think the safest pick as a Wild Card entry… the Los Angeles Rams (this might be their last hurrah for a while). The decision between the Packers and Vikings is tough… but I’ll go Viking, in a PINCH, McNair is the difference (Your also welcome to call this a HOMER pick).
AFC
#1 – Broncos
#2 – Patriots
#3 – Titans
#4 - Ravens
#5 - Chargers
#6 - Bills
NFC
#1 – Cowboys
#2 – Lions
#3 – Cardinals
#4 – Falcons
#5 – Rams
#6 – Vikings
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