In this article we will review the 2003 QB class.
As a GM you always look to what the draft does and compare your players to those drafted, especially at QB. So more than a pundit analysis it is more my review as a GM without going into the smallest detail to compare.
This said I use the following method:
- Looking at stats up to week 15 since season
- Looking at the progression in 3 key skills: AWR, THP and THA
- Looking only those Qb with enough starting material
Sure, progression is affected by the rookie and Sophomore progression, but within 4 seasons the tendencies are clear to what GMs do with it. There are a lot of factors that affect the players like the style of offense, injuries, overall roster and such. But, looking like I do gives general tendencies that can explain what we have.
You have so the following sheets to also base your own view, and follow what I will tell about the players.
Overall, there is more or less the same amount of progression points used to all those QB, even with Ragone playing much less than the other QBs. The tendency is AWR and then THA, above all if the initial THA is under 85. And for good reason, AWR is the number one skill for a QB. A high initial THA is quite a help but stats wise in this class it doesn’t seem to affect much the players’ stats. The best example is Romo: Ro had to spend more points in THA than other GMs and that has affected the player who is way below the 80 threshold. Ragone doesn’t count because he really started to play in year 3. That means: Don’t draft high a QB with under 85 THA if you want to make him you franchise QB. The exception being Hamdam because he started just below (somewhat) 70 initial AWR that helped put the points in THA. So: THA is no really a problem if you have high initial AWR.
All players with a full 4 seasons starting are similar in stats except Hamdan and Grossman. Grossman has been injured but his stats are nonetheless low.
This said:
- All Qbs more or less at .50 or above at year 3 or 4. Initial AWR and progression at AWR may explain that, and the sample is telling because they all start around the 60 initial AWR
- You can’t by design starting to make your rookies plays like Elway in the NFL with 10000000 attempts as he did his first 10 years because that is a recipe for disaster
- A proven WR is key to help your QB but in this class that doesn’t seem to be key as those with one are not way more progressed or way over the others stats wise (then again, your offense PB is a factor, your OL, your HB; I know but this is harsh tendency looked here)
- No QB have reached the 90 AWR threshold, which means that even with excellent progression this bar is high if you don’t start with a 70 initial AWR.
Even if this class has reaches because teams wanted to have a franchise QB with the benefit of having a full 4 years of GM tenure, it quite a good one because at some exceptions, the development is the same.
Thus, to me the running order of this class is :
1. Gibran Hamdan
2. Chris Simms
3. Byron Leftwich
4. Carson Palmer
5. Tony Romo
6. Rex Grossman
I don’t put Ragone here because even if his stats helps the comparison, it is no fair to rank him with the others with only 2 years of play.
As for myself, even if my offense is stall at times, I feel better and less frustrated at Lefty and his stats because he is not way behind on stats or skills than the others. I just feel now that I should have better used those 3 THP progression points at AWR and/ or THA. I just see that I needed to get more focused on giving a better core WR to him, because that what Hamdam and Simms had and have and that gave a plus. I just blame myself but my aging roster and my cap didn’t allow.
I feel also more comfortable keeping him because frustration at times nearly pushed me to trade him.
I also felt more comfortable of having delt a future first for him because when I did, I just told myself “Why did you rush that?”. In the end, he gave me a division title and cause for hope for the future of the Chiefs.
