Does a Team’s OVR Translate Into Wins?
If you've ever set your lineup and thought "well, we've got the higher-rated roster, this should be easy" — I have some news for you. We pulled every team's average OVR and lined it up against the actual standings, and the results are... messier than you'd think.
The short version: OVR and wins are related. But not nearly as tightly as the ratings would have you believe, and a few teams make the whole relationship look like a coin flip.
The Broncos Are the Best on Paper…And the Field
Let's start with the team that made everyone else look bad. The Broncos had the #1 OVR in the league and backed it up with a 15-1 record — the best mark of the season. Ratings said "best roster," results said "best team." No notes. That's how this is supposed to work.
Unfortunately, that's basically the only time it worked cleanly at the very top.
The Bears Were a Disaster Waiting to Happen — And It Happened
Here's where it gets fun. The Bears had the #2 OVR in the entire league — a roster better on paper than every team not named Denver. Their record? 4-12. Dead last in wins among winning-adjacent expectations, and nowhere near the playoffs.
That's not a small miss. That's a team with a top-two roster finishing with the 30th-best record in the league. If you were setting your Madden league power rankings off ratings alone, the Bears would've been your preseason favorite. Instead, they were a punchline.
They weren't alone, either. The Browns (#7 OVR) went 5-11. The Bengals (#6 OVR) went 6-10. That's three teams inside the top 7 in OVR who combined for a losing percentage south of .400. Whatever was happening on the field for these rosters, it wasn't showing up in the numbers that were supposed to predict it.
The Colts and Bills Made the Most of Their Rosters
Flip it around, and it gets even better. The Colts finished with a top-tier 10-6 record and a playoff berth — while sitting at #22 in OVR, in the bottom third of the league. The Bills did the same thing one spot worse: 9-7, a playoff spot, and #27 in OVR.
Two playoff teams, both built from rosters rated below the league median. If OVR were destiny, neither of these teams sniffs January football.
The Rams and Seahawks pulled a milder version of the same trick — both finished with elite records (13-3 and 12-4) while sitting in the middle of the OVR pack (13th and 16th), comfortably outproducing their ratings.
Here Is the Full Chart of OVRs and Records
OVR Rank Team OVR Avg Record
1 Broncos 89.10 15-1
2 Bears 87.50 4-12
3 49ers 86.96 8-8
4 Titans 86.77 12-4
5 Eagles 86.73 12-4
6 Bengals 86.65 6-10
7 Browns 86.46 5-11
8 Patriots 86.23 11-5
9 Steelers 86.19 8-8
10 Vikings 86.12 10-6
11 Jets 86.00 7-9
12 Redskins 85.85 9-7
13 Rams 85.81 13-3
14 Lions 85.48 10-6
15 Falcons 85.46 10-6
16 Seahawks 85.38 12-4
17 Panthers 85.23 5-11
18 Chargers 85.15 9-7
19 Ravens 85.15 7-9
20 Cowboys 85.12 10-6
21 Dolphins 85.12 6-10
22 Colts 84.73 10-6
23 Cardinals 84.69 6-10
24 Texans 84.65 6-10
25 Saints 84.65 5-11
26 Giants 84.65 5-11
27 Bills 84.42 9-7
28 Jaguars 84.08 8-8
29 Buccaneers 82.65 6-10
30 Raiders 82.58 2-14
31 Chiefs 82.15 7-9
32 Packers 81.65 3-13
So Where's the Sweet Spot?
Once you lay it all out, a pattern does emerge — just not the one you'd expect. The teams that combined a good-not-great OVR with playoff results dominate the middle of the ratings board. Look at the playoff field: half of the twelve teams that made it — Rams, Lions, Falcons, Seahawks, Colts, Bills — ranked outside the top 10 in OVR. Two of them ranked in the bottom third of the entire league.
The very top of the OVR chart isn't where playoff berths cluster. It's actually the middle third — teams rated roughly 10th to 20th — that produced the most overachievers relative to their rating. Being elite on paper isn't required. Being solid and getting results apparently is.
The Numbers Didn't Lie About Everybody
Credit where it's due — some teams' ratings were exactly as advertised. The Raiders had the 2nd-worst OVR and the 2nd-worst record. The Packers had the worst OVR in the league and the 2nd-fewest wins. Whatever's wrong with those rosters, it's showing up both in the ratings and on the scoreboard, no mystery required.
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