Since my return to the league, I have been looking across a lot of teams in my search for trades. During this adventure I started to take notice of the quarterback situation on many of the teams, especially those I knew from draft day one was searching for their next generation franchise signal caller. Through my exploration I noticed a continued theme that the believed next messiah drafted by several teams had proven to be anything but the saviour they sought. We’ve all been around this game and its quirks for decades, but it still proves a challenge to find a quarterback who gels with your current team in this league. I would say its at a rather alarming rate that players drafted in the first round have been traded around after failing to bring the “IT” factor out of the gate. Likewise, those teams desperate for any half-decent leader drafted a player to at least have someone, then quickly move on to the next best option.
Whatever the case I have looked through the previous drafts to find those quarterbacks drafted with the hope of being the next big thing and then have a look at how they have gone and what team they currently play for. No real surprises on how they perform as rookies, but when do they become reliable (and therefore maybe when should you look to trade for one)?
2003
1.01  Carson Palmer
The OG first pick in PTF, Carson Palmer was never doubted as the best QB in this draft, however much weight that carries. With a plethora of teams scrambling for a starting quarterback post the 2002 fast forward his combination of throw power (93), accuracy (90), height (6'5"), and age (21) saw him first off the block. His 55 awareness wasn't ideal but was covered by the other qualities. He's still a Bengal 4 seasons in and has received a contract extension to remain for the long term. His performance to date has represented most rookie QBs with 3 seasons below 70 QB rating and his best in 2005 at 85.7. He has only led the Bengals to 1 winning season (2005) and even that wasn't enough to make the playoffs.
1.03  Gibran Hamdan
The Steelers paid a lot to move up to this draft position and stunned many in the league by selecting Hamdan ahead of the other available options. The main selling point for this pick was his awareness (64) which was high compared to most of the others, combined with his throwing power (97). Conversely his accuracy was rather low (75) but does not seem to have been the factor everyone thought it would be. Performance wise he has steadily gotten better, going from QB rating in the 69’s, to 78, and then 96.8 last season, even if you discount his rookie year of being sacked 60 times (2nd all-time). Compared to Plamer taken at 1.01 he has performed to a significantly higher level, even leading the Eagles to the playoffs in 2006. Needless to say it only took a year of frustration in Pittsburgh before he was moved on to Philadelphia where in his second season there threw the ball 504 time (5th all-time) for 4,080 yards and 30 touchdowns.
1.09  Brooks Bollinger
At this pint int the draft it was personal preference on what stats a GM valued. Bollinger started with 56 awareness, 93 throwing power, and 88 accuracy whilst being a 23 year old, 6'1" rookie. Nothing extraordinary about Bollinger and really only picked here because the Panthers were desperate to get ahead of the quarterback game. In a sense it goes both downhill and uphill for Bollinger from there as he has spent each of the last 4 seasons on a different team (Panthers, Titans, Vikings, 49ers) where he’s only cracked the 2,000-pass yard mark once and hasn’t thrown more than 19 touchdowns in a year. He has had injury troubles resulting in only one full season of starts (2004). The upside is that his QB rating is steadily getting better along with his progressables, so should he be able to stay healthy then the 49ers (or his next team) have a potential quality signal caller to lead their team to another potential playoff appearance.
1.14  Rex Grossman
Rexy baby is the next drafted and the 2nd of this year’s class to still be on his original team. Drafted at 22 years old he came with 59 awareness, 91 throwing power, 85 throwing accuracy. He had high agility out of the gate which made it debatable if he would become a scrambler which may have scared away prior pickers. He has since been locked up long term to lead the Dolphins even if he has struggled with injury over the past 3 seasons. His end performances have not been anything to write home about, but he’s shown improvement in protecting the ball with smarter decisions and tighter throws. It still hasn’t helped the Dolphins overall as they’ve only ever reached 6-10 in any given season under his part-time leadership.
1.30  Chris Simms
At 6’4” Chris Simms has better height then the previous 2 drafted, however his “flaw” comes from his initial throwing power of 86. Well below the prototypical 90-ish that most crave, the Cowboys were originally happy to pair that with 90 accuracy and 56 awareness to at least have someone who could throw the ball half decently. That plan didn’t last long as by 2004 he ended up in the Broncos camp before then finding himself “Tebow’d” to Indianapolis for Peyton Manning. He has progressed well, heading to the playoffs in the past 2 seasons as he has developed into a quality quarterback who can score touchdowns with the best of them and a QB rating in the 80’s. He’ll be happy to get past the 2004 season in Denver where he was sacked 54 time (5th all-time).
1.31  Tony Romo
Rookie Romo came into the league at 21 years old, which is a major positive to give longevity after the growing pains. He initially lacked accuracy (78 ) which is probably why others were picked ahead of him, whilst his 55 awareness was about standard for this class, and 95 throwing power is right in the sweet spot. He’s still a Giant after 4 seasons and had his contract extension locked in earlier than Palmer and Grossman, even if his performance growth has been just as painful. His second season was rough by any standards with a 49.5 QB rating after throwing 32 interceptions (all-time league high) off the back of 513 attempts (4th all-time). Last year he looked much more composed, controlled, and part of a balanced offense as he works towards better completion percentage and a loss less turnovers.
1.32  Dave Ragone
Taken with the last pick of the 1st round with an eye at the time to replace an aging Brad Johnson, this seemed like a decent pick for the plan. With 54 awareness, 94 throwing power, and 82 accuracy he would do well mentoring behind Johnson for a year or so and not be forced directly into the fire. Needless to say, the Buccaneers went another direction, and he was moved to Green Bay to sit behind Brett Favre for 2 more seasons before seeing his chance only to be dashed by rookie Matt Leinart given the reins in 2006. Ragone has not been a starter in four seasons but has still progressed nicely attribute wise into a reliable backup, but right now is poised to be a potential starter fi given the chance.
2.01  Byron Leftwich
Several mock drafts had Leftwich going high in the first round just because a lot of us thought there would be a mad scramble for quarterbacks up high. Instead, his uninspiring stats of 56 awareness, 87 throwing power, and 85 accuracy saw him drop to the second round where the Chiefs made one of the best steals of the draft. Lefty had an impressive rookie year as a starter with a 73.5 QB rating, throwing 21 touchdowns to only 17 interception and 2,883 yards. His following two seasons were a major let down in comparison, but last year saw him back to his rookie form and has earnt him a contract extension in Kansas City as they still search for another winning season following his inspiring 2003 debut.
3.12  Kyle Boller
The Lions went half-in with Boller, waiting until the third round to add their new quarterback. At 21 years old he had plenty of time for growth and would need it with only 50 awareness, 91 throwing power and 78 accuracy. His lowly attributes did not hamper him as severely as we would have expected, essentially coming out even in his first two seasons on touchdowns and interceptions (rare for rookie to achieve this). This didn’t save him from moving house though as he was shipped off to Pittsburgh when the Lions smelt a massive upgrade to actually get a winning season, nor the following year as he headed to Buffalo, relegated to a backup role behind Kerry Collins. Even after all this the Bills liked his potential in some way as they’ve signed him long term as he may be on the cusp of being able to hold his own.
5.04  Kliff Kingsbury
Everyone expected the Bears to draft their franchise QB with the fourth overall pick of the draft, but they opted for WR Andre Johnson instead. Then any other pick from 2 options in the second round and again early in the third and fourth rounds. Instead, they pick Kingsbury early in the 5th and announce him as their 2003 starter on the back of 50 awareness, 92 throwing power and 76 accuracy. A headscratcher at the time and in hindsight everyone else was right as he has not performed anywhere near the level you need of your main signal caller. Needless to say the Bears have gone multiple different routes since this pick, and these will be discussed later.
2004
1.01  Philip Rivers
2 PTF drafts and two quarterbacks selected with the 1st overall pick. There was much debate over who would go first between Rivers and Eli Manning, but at the time the Cardinals went with the younger player (22) instead of the higher attributes. With 65 awareness, 95 throwing power, and 85 accuracy I feel he was a better pick than Palmer the year before, only because I value awareness in rookies. Like any other young quarterback, he struggled in his first two seasons before being traded to Houston and finding his feet in 2006, finally giving the performance that his former franchise invested in him to deliver.
1.02  Eli Manning
Breck was more than happy to lock in Manning 2.0 with his starter ready throwing skills (93 throwing power, 92 accuracy). His 64 awareness was good too, but at 24 years old he needed all the starting tools to overcome his shorter career path. Injury robbed him of his rookie campaign after four solid games, but he hasn’t lost momentum over the nest two seasons with decent completion percentage and improving touchdown numbers. The Chargers have found a streak of winning seasons with Manning at the helm so its no wonder they have locked him up for the foreseeable future.
1.08  Cody Pickett
21 years old, 6’4” tall, 60 awareness, 91 throwing power, and 81 accuracy sounds like the recipe for a half decent quarterback, right? Well, a quick fast forward to week 8 of his rookie campaign and Pickett lands a 96-yard touchdown pass in a 30 to 8 thumping of the Eagles. That pass still sits as the equal second longest in league history and helped Pickett to a decent 79.4 QB rating in his rookie year. He faced significant time off for his sophomore season due to injury before returning last season to throw more picks than touchdowns and go backwards a bit from his rookie year. His attributes are looking promising for 2007 and if he’s protected and given the targets to work with then I can see a promising career ahead of him.
2.05  J.P. Losman
Losman didn’t come across as stellar in the draft combine, more solid with decent potential. 63 awareness, 89 throwing power, and 84 accuracy were decent enough to warrant a few starts and the 49ers gave it their best shot for minimal output. This led to his benching in 2005 in favour of veteran A.J. Feeley before being traded to Dallas. He’s spot started and injury back filled for nice returns and Dallas have locked him up to play 2nd fiddle alongside Drew Brees. He’s looking more and more starter ready and Apolo has already announced his intentions of seeing him continue to grow for the Cowboys in his now forever home.
2.09  Ben Roethlisbergr
Big Ben’s draft stocks were killed by his geriatric rookie age of 25, weak throwing arm (83), and injury concerns (37). 65 awareness and 92 accuracy are greats starting points for any QB, especially on a 6’4”, 240 lbs frame and the Saints have given him every opportunity to prove the rest of the league wrong. He’s been solid more than stellar which has not helped the franchise’s cause as they haven’t had a winning season since forever so he’ll need to get his jets on to save his GM and potentially his career (which begins to regress in 3 seasons).
4.17 Craig Krenzel
Take 2 for the Bears drafting a quarterback, or is it? Kenzel is one of those “what if” weak armed (77) but otherwise impressive passers (71 awareness, 91 accuracy) who just don’t quite make their mark. The Bears really didn’t think much of him apart from backup potential until this year where he started a few games after the Aaron Rodger injury.
6.18 Luke McCown
You would think that delving into the 6th round means we’re scrapping the bottom of the barrel right, but McCown may end up bucking the trend with only a little bit of initial playing time. Not much different stat wise to Krenzel picked 65 slots prior (72 awareness, 79 throwing power, 88 accuracy) he played in 6 games in his rookie year and performed as well as you’d expect. A few games the following year before the Steelers came knocking and was welcomed into his first full-time starting gig. And it worked, but that was helped by developed stats (86 awareness by now) as he knocked out a 95.5 QB rating year with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over 3,072 yards and a divisional title. He’s now a 90+ awareness QB at 26 years old and is proving that throwing power isn’t everything.
6.27  Ty Branyon
I’m taking the piss now aren’t I? Pick 6.27 is worth talking about? Well at 68 awareness, 84 throwing power, and 86 awareness he looks like a former 2.01 pick, so attribute wise how did he fall this far? The Bills didn’t require his services for his rookie season (1 pass attempt) before shipping him off to transit through Tennessee on his way to Washington where they gave him a few chances due to a Patrick Ramsey injury. He played like a sophomore, got a little better before the desperate Raiders brought him in to start. 16 games later he scraped out 2 wins and handed his franchise the number one pick in the 2007 draft. On paper he doesn’t look too bad now, but will that translate into game day or has recent Raider acquisitions pushed him back into backup land?
2005
1.01  Alex Smith
Three seasons, three quarterbacks at pick 1. Not that this pick helped the Jet that years as their 2-14 left them the second worst team in 2005. Compared to previous drafts, Smith’s attributes did not look pick 1.1 worthy at 67 awareness, 89 throwing power, and 86 accuracy. That proved the case as it resulted in a 55.4 QB rating on the back of 20 touchdowns, 28 interceptions (2nd all-time). He also has trouble staying upright, sacked 42 times in 2005, followed by 44 times in his sophomore season. With progression under his belt, he looks solid on paper now, but it’ll need the right offensive setup to let him shine before we can call this a real bust.
1.02 Aaron Rodgers
Bears 3.0? Or in reality this is the first time the Bear’s organisation can say they’ve actually tried investing the right way into a franchise signal caller. 63 awareness, 91 throwing power, and 84 accuracy seems to be pretty standard attributes for a rookie, which led to a surprising rookie performance. An 81.2 QB rating is one of the best on record as he completed 51.48% of his passes, averaged 8.06 yards per attempt, threw 25 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, but was sacked 50 times. 2006 was a right off due to a lingering injury so we can only see how he bounces back in 2007 post actually seeing his progression applied.
1.18 Andrew Walter
Youth proved to be Walters major selling point as a 22-year-old with 59 awareness, 91 throwing power, and 83 accuracy saw him picked next in the middle of the round. His personal rookie outing wasn’t the best, but we’ve seen worse, however the team impact led to the worst record for the year. What did stand out from his rookie performance was the equal 3rd all-time sack number he racked up at 58 along with the 4 fumbles. 2006 wasn’t much better as he still had the same number of interceptions (14), but only 8 touchdowns in an injury marred year with only half the playing time. On a positive note he is now a much more accurate passer (91), but this has come at the cost of awareness (69) which I feel will still hurt his performance for the next couple of seasons.
1.19  Derek Anderson
Mr. Andreson probably fell this far and was overlooked for Walters due to his age (24). Out of the gate his awareness was ok (61) and accuracy was top-level (90) with only a slit hit on throwing power (88 ). His rookie season looked promising in Oakland with a 72.6 QB rating, 16 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, apart from his record-breaking number of times getting sacked (61). This was obviously not good enough for the Raiders as they sent him packing to Jacksonville for almost the same pick they used to draft him a year earlier. The Jaguars didn’t keep him long as they made money by moving him to Tampa Bay for 4 picks higher. 2006 for the Buccaneers wasn’t any better than his rookie year, but he’s now progressed to a point he should start turning a positive year given the right tools to work with.
2.27 Dan Orlovsky
A late second and the second time the Buccaneers have drafted a backup quarterback. Orlovsky was probably a stretch drafting here, coming in with 58 awareness, 89 throwing power and a scary 78 accuracy. He hasn’t started in 2 seasons and his last outing in week 11 saw him post a 9.8 QB rating after 14 attempts. We’ll leave it there.
5.21 Kyle Orton
Another drafted insurance policy that only saw light of day following a Chad Pennington injury right after the trade deadline of 2006 (should’ve traded me Chad Will). Orton didn’t inspire much interest coming into the draft with his awareness (56), throwing power (87) and accuracy (84) all mediocre. Playing in the last 6 games of the season saw him post respectable numbers, finishing with an 8.5 QB rating, 13 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 52% completion and 9.02 yards per attempt. Promising signs for him even if he turns 26 this year and the Cardinals know they can rely on him in a pinch.
6.07 Charlie Frye
Another sixth rounder getting a mention? Well, when you have had two seasons starting due to injuries then your name gets thrown out there, and Frye also managed to throw a lot more than that in his rookie year with the longest touchdown pass in PTF history of 99 yards. Week 7 of 2005 in a loss to the Patriots saw this hail Mary go down to Doug Gabriel as time expired in the game. For a guy who was drafted with 55 awareness, 91 throwing power, and 80 accuracy in the 6th round to drop that bomb into the history books is a nice effort. As the injkury starter he’s also recorded 9 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in both seasons, which is an interesting coincidence too.
2006
1.05  Vince Young
The first PTF draft without the first pick being a quarterback, but Vince’s attributes seem higher quality then some of the previous 1.1 picks. 63 awareness is decent, 97 throwing power is a cannon of an arm, and 92 accuracy is one of the best out of the gate so far. He obviously split starting time with veteran Steve McNair, but apart from his week 3 and 17 performances (5 and 4 interceptions respectively) he had a good rookie year, including a 5-touchdown performance in week 15. He’s made a nice mark in one season, and we’ll see how long the Vikings stick with him before they leverage his value into multiple other options.
1.07  Jay Cutler
Cannon arm (97), check. Accuracy (87), check? Awareness (56), not quite there, and coupe with his stiffness (31 agility) he found himself on the receiving end of an impressive number of sacks (58, equal 3rd all-time). Apart from that cringe-worthy history line he wasn’t that bad of a passer for a rookie, throwing 23 touchdowns and interceptions for a 69.7 QB rating. He’s learnt well from his rookie year and hopefully that increase in awareness will see a better year in 2007.
2.22 Brodie Croyle
Roethlisbergr’s injury concerns came to fruition in 2006 and Croyle spent unplanned time in the game taking the reins. It didn’t help the team that much as he could only rally the team to 2 wins from 6 starts. Drafted with 61 awareness, 85 throwing power, and 89 accuracy he was not equipped to be rushed into battle. Whilst his overall performance was lack-lustre it has helped his value as he’s now been moved to the Raiders where he is in the mix to start for 2007.
2.32  Matt Leinart
Lefty Leinart rounds out the list as was thrown in the deep end by the Packers post-Favre era. Given the chance to experience the game and progress, he really sucked at it. Growing from 58 awareness, 92 throwing power, and 85 awareness he crawled to a 48 QB rating, 6 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and 1,598 yards for the year. Even with what little progression he earnt there has been little interest on the trade market so far. |
