Teams to Watch During the Draft
Every team enters the draft with a different plan. Some teams are trying to complete a rebuild, some are looking for the final player who can push them toward a championship, and others are simply trying to accumulate as much value as possible. This draft should be especially interesting because several teams control multiple selections in the first round. That gives them the ability to move around the board, target specific players, or take the best player available without worrying as much about filling every need with one pick. The top of the class appears to have three or four players who separate themselves from the rest, but there should still be plenty of starting-caliber talent available throughout the middle and later portions of the first round. Linebacker, wide receiver, offensive tackle and safety all have intriguing options. The unpredictable attribute skew also means teams will have to decide how much risk they are willing to accept. A player with elite pre-skew athletic ratings could become a franchise player, but a poor skew could completely change his value.
Packers
1st Round Picks: 2nd Overall, 8th Overall, 25th Overall, & 29th Overall
The Packers have the best capital of any team in this draft, boasting two top ten picks. Having two top 10 picks is one of the best ways to jump-start a rebuild. Most rebuilding teams are fortunate to have one opportunity to select a true cornerstone player. Green Bay will have two chances before the draft is even ten selections old, giving them an opportunity to add elite talent on both sides of the ball. With the Raiders expected to take Darrelle Revis with the 1st overall pick, I expect the Packers to target LB Patrick Willis. I'm not a huge fan of taking LBs this early, however Willis is an outlier. He has 99 SPD, 78 AWR and 95 ACC pre-skew, which are amazing stats for any player, especially a rookie linebacker. His combination of speed, acceleration and awareness should allow him to immediately become one of the most athletic defenders in the league. It's likely he skews down a bit with his speed, but even 90 speed would be great as a rookie. A significant negative skew would obviously make the selection more questionable, but Willis has enough room to decline and still remain an excellent prospect. If his speed stays anywhere near the mid-90s, Green Bay could have a linebacker capable of covering an incredible amount of ground. He could contribute against the run, chase down quarterbacks and running backs, and hold up better in coverage than most linebackers. Willis also makes sense because the Packers are building a young defense that should improve together. A linebacker with his athletic profile could become the centerpiece of that group. Green Bay would not need him to immediately have perfect awareness or become the smartest player on the defense. They could allow him to use his athleticism early while his awareness, tackling and other ratings continue to develop. If the Packers believe he is clearly the second-best player in the class, they should not overthink the positional value. The other possibility would be taking an offensive player or trading the selection. If another team becomes desperate to acquire one of the top prospects, Green Bay could receive an enormous return for the 2nd overall pick. However, the Packers already have plenty of draft capital and eventually need to turn those selections into impact players. Unless the offer is overwhelming, staying at No. 2 and taking a potential defensive cornerstone would make the most sense. Green Bay will also be able to get another great player with the 8th overall pick. This selection gives them a lot of flexibility because they can see how the first seven picks develop before deciding whether to address a specific need or simply take the best player available. There should still be several high-level prospects on the board, and it is possible that one of the players projected to go in the top five falls to them. I could see the Packers targeting a WR with this pick, especially if they are interested in adding a big weapon for QB Dave Ragone. The class has several receivers with impressive size and athleticism. A tall receiver would give Ragone a much larger target and could help an offense that needs more explosive playmakers. Calvin Johnson and Sidney Rice would be especially interesting, although their availability will depend on how aggressively other teams value receivers near the top of the draft. A receiver would also complement the selection of Willis well. Green Bay could leave the top ten with one potential defensive star and one potential offensive star. That is the type of draft combination that can quickly change the direction of a franchise. It would give the Packers two players to build around while the rest of their young roster continues developing. They do not necessarily have to take a wide receiver, though. An offensive tackle could help stabilize the line, while another defensive player could give Green Bay one of the fastest young defenses in the league. The Packers should be careful not to force a position at No. 8. The advantage of having multiple premium picks is that they can trust their board and select whichever highly rated prospect unexpectedly remains available. There will be pressure on the Packers to get these selections right. Picking near the top comes with expensive contracts and high expectations. However, Green Bay has a great opportunity to add two key players and get back to being a Super Bowl contender. They may not be ready to compete immediately, but a successful first round could give them the foundation they need to make a major jump over the next few seasons.
Buccaneers
1st Round Picks: 4th Overall
The Buccaneers traded up to get this pick. They gave up the 10th overall pick and a future 1st to move up to 4th overall. Giving up a future 1st to move up six spots is a steep price, and the Buccaneers likely have a player in mind that they want. Teams usually do not surrender that type of capital unless they believe there is a major difference between the players available near the top of the draft and the players expected to be there at No. 10. That makes Tampa Bay one of the biggest mysteries of the first round. The Packers and Raiders may be somewhat predictable, but the Buccaneers could take the draft in several different directions. They may already know exactly who they want, or they may have identified a small group of players they would be comfortable selecting. Either way, moving up this aggressively shows that they did not want to wait and hope their preferred prospect fell. I think the Buccaneers are targeting a tackle here, likely hoping to get Joe Thomas. Outside of Calvin Anderson, they don't have another clear starter at tackle. Some teams don't value OL as much as others, but I think the Buccaneers will look to add a tackle. Thomas is one of the safest high-level prospects in the class and would address a position that can be extremely difficult to fill through trades or free agency. D'Brickashaw Ferguson was the 6th overall pick last year and broke the rookie record for pancakes. His immediate success may make teams more comfortable taking a tackle near the top of the draft. If Tampa Bay believes Thomas can provide similar production, the cost of moving up becomes easier to justify. A reliable tackle can improve the entire offense by giving the quarterback more time, creating better running lanes and reducing the need to constantly provide extra blocking help. The main concern for the Buccaneers will be playing a young developing tackle at RT if they go that route. RTs give up a ton of sacks and don't progress as fast as LTs. That makes the development plan almost as important as the selection itself. Tampa Bay will have to decide whether Thomas should immediately play on the right side, whether Anderson could move, or whether they can structure the line in another way that gives the rookie a better chance to succeed. Thomas will have good awareness as a rookie, which would help. Awareness is especially important for an offensive lineman because even a physically gifted tackle can struggle if he reacts slowly or misses assignments. Thomas may not completely avoid the normal rookie problems at RT, but he appears better equipped than most prospects to contribute immediately. His awareness should also reduce the amount of development needed before he becomes a dependable starter. The Buccaneers could also be targeting one of the elite offensive weapons. A receiver such as Calvin Johnson would give the offense a potentially dominant target, and teams may view him as a more impactful selection than an offensive lineman. If Tampa Bay traded up because it believes one of the top receivers is a rare prospect, the offense could look completely different next season. I don't think the Buccaneers will take one of the top LBs, although if Thomas is gone and Willis is somehow available, it's possible. Willis would likely be the best player available in that scenario, and Tampa Bay would have to decide whether positional need matters more than overall talent. Passing on a player with elite athletic ratings can be difficult, especially after paying such a large price to enter the top four. The Buccaneers will have to get a ton of value out of this pick after they traded two 1sts to get it. A solid starter may not be enough. They need someone who can become one of the best players at his position and remain a major part of the team for several seasons. No team will face more pressure with a single selection, and the success of this trade could be judged for years.
Lions
1st Round Picks: 9th Overall & 10th Overall
The Lions traded down from the 4th overall pick and acquired the 10th overall pick and a future 1st from the Buccaneers. I think it was a great return for them. Detroit moved down only six positions while adding another top-ten selection and a valuable future asset. Unless the player selected at No. 4 becomes a dominant superstar, this trade should give the Lions an excellent opportunity to come away with more overall value. They just made the Super Bowl and now get two top 10 picks. That is an unusual position for a championship-level roster. Most teams selecting this early have major weaknesses throughout the depth chart, but Detroit can approach these picks without feeling forced to solve one specific problem. They should be one of the early favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2007, and this draft could make an already talented roster even deeper. They don't have many needs and will be able to take the best players available. That is one of the biggest advantages any team can have. When a team drafts strictly for need, it may end up passing on a far better prospect. Detroit can simply watch the board and select whichever two players offer the most value at picks nine and ten. Having consecutive selections is also important. The Lions will not have to worry about another team taking a player between their picks. Once they are on the clock at No. 9, they can essentially evaluate every possible two-player combination still available. They can select the player they believe another team might trade up for first and then take their other preferred prospect at No. 10. I think they'll target one of the tall WRs in Calvin Johnson and Sidney Rice. They've valued WR height in the past, and I think they'll look to add another tall WR. Size creates valuable mismatches, particularly against teams with smaller cornerbacks. A tall receiver can become a major target in the red zone, make contested catches and give the quarterback more margin for error. Calvin Johnson would probably be the more exciting option, but there is no guarantee he lasts until the ninth pick. If he begins falling, Detroit has enough capital to consider moving up. However, the Lions should not become too aggressive. The reason their current position is so valuable is that they already have two excellent selections. Giving up too much to acquire one player would reduce the benefit of the Buccaneers trade. Sidney Rice could be a more realistic target. His height and receiving ability would fit what Detroit has valued in the past, and he could develop without having to immediately carry the passing game. Joining a talented roster would allow either receiver to face favorable matchups rather than constantly being treated as the only dangerous weapon on the field. The Lions could also use one of the picks on an offensive lineman or defensive back. A strong offensive line would help protect their championship window, while another fast cornerback or safety could strengthen the defense against the league's increasingly athletic receiving corps. Because Detroit does not have an obvious weakness, almost any premium position could make sense. They've drafted a lot of LBs in the past few drafts, so I don't expect them to take another one. However, if a LB is the best player available, they could make a luxury pick. Adding another linebacker would create a crowded depth chart, but it could also give Detroit tremendous speed and flexibility on defense. Good teams can afford to select players before a need becomes urgent. The Lions will also be a team to watch in potential trades. Another organization may want to move into the top ten if a quarterback, receiver or tackle begins falling. Detroit could move one of the selections while keeping the other, adding even more future capital without completely leaving the premium portion of the first round. They could also package both picks to move much higher, although staying in place appears to offer better overall value. They are in arguably the best spot of any team in this draft. They have a ton of options and don't have to force anything. The Lions are not asking these rookies to rescue the franchise. They are adding talented players to a team that has already proven it can contend. If Detroit lands two quality starters, the rest of the league could have an even more difficult time preventing another Super Bowl appearance.
Redskins
1st Round Picks: 13th Overall, 16th Overall, & 21st Overall
The Redskins traded up a few times and currently hold three 1st-round picks. They've got great capital and could move into the top 10 or higher if they wanted to. Washington may not have the same premium selections as Green Bay or Detroit, but having three picks in the middle of the first round gives them more flexibility than almost any other team. The Redskins can approach the draft in several different ways. They could package two selections to move up for one elite player, make all three picks and add several starters, or trade one selection for future capital. They will have to balance the appeal of acquiring a potential superstar against the value of filling multiple positions with young, affordable players. I think they'll be active on draft day looking for a potential trade up if a player they are interested in is available. The most likely opportunity would come if one of the top receivers, linebackers or offensive tackles falls outside the first several picks. Washington has enough capital to make a competitive offer without completely removing itself from the remainder of the first round. The Redskins should still be careful about overpaying. The draft class seems to fall off a bit after the top three or four players, but that does not necessarily mean Washington should sacrifice multiple selections to reach that group. A trade into the top five could require an enormous package. Unless Washington believes the available prospect is a true franchise-changing player, making all three selections may produce a better roster. If they end up making all three picks, they'll get good starters. There are a lot of good players who should be available in the mid-to-late 1st. The difference between the 13th-ranked player and the 21st-ranked player may not be especially large after the attribute skew is revealed. Washington could potentially land three similarly talented prospects rather than investing everything into one uncertain player. I could see the Redskins targeting positions such as WR, LB and S. A receiver would give the offense another weapon and could provide more size or speed on the outside. With three selections, Washington would not have to reach for the first receiver available. They could see how the position develops and choose from whichever prospects remain at the best value. Linebacker may be one of the strongest possibilities. This class has several athletic linebackers who could contribute in different roles. If Patrick Willis is unavailable, Washington could still select a player with the speed and versatility to play inside or outside. Adding a young linebacker would help the defense immediately while also giving the Redskins a player who can develop into a long-term starter. Safety could be another excellent target, especially if LaRon Landry is available. Landry has the athletic profile to become an impact player and could contribute against both the run and pass. Safeties with elite physical ratings can change the way a defense plays, allowing the team to be more aggressive in coverage and bringing additional speed into the box. Washington could realistically address all three positions in the first round. A WR, LB and S combination would add talent to multiple areas without forcing the team to choose between offense and defense. They could also substitute an offensive lineman or cornerback if a highly rated prospect falls. The order of the selections will matter. At No. 13, the Redskins should probably take the player they believe has the smallest chance of reaching No. 16. With only two picks separating their first two selections, they may be able to predict which players the teams in between are targeting. The 21st pick will be more difficult because a larger group of teams will have the opportunity to change the board. The Redskins could become the team that controls the middle of the first round. Organizations trying to move ahead of another team may call Washington about any of its selections. That gives the Redskins a chance to gain additional value even if they do not make a dramatic move into the top ten. Three first-round selections also create pressure. Washington cannot afford to miss on all three or use the picks on players who fill the same limited role. The goal should be to leave the first round with a group of players who improve the overall athleticism and depth of the roster. If the Redskins stay patient, they could quietly have the strongest complete first round of any team.
Jaguars
1st Round Picks: None
The Jaguars don't own any 1sts, but they are still one of the more interesting teams to watch in the 1st round. Most teams without a selection would receive very little attention, but Jacksonville has made it clear that it is interested in finding a way back onto the board. That possibility could affect teams throughout the later portion of the round. They've been looking to trade a future 1st for a current 1st. While they haven't found anyone interested yet, I think it's possible during the draft that they make a move. Trade discussions often become more serious once teams know which players are actually available. An organization that likes the idea of adding a future selection may still be unwilling to commit before seeing how the board develops. If a team isn't interested in anyone available and would rather have an extra 1st next year, the Jaguars may be able to get back into the 1st round. This becomes more realistic near the end of the round. Teams selecting in the top ten will probably demand more than one future first, but a team in the 20s may be willing to exchange its current selection for Jacksonville's future capital. The value of the Jaguars' future pick will also be debated. Jacksonville has a good roster and could finish with one of the better records in the league, which would make the selection less attractive. However, future picks always carry uncertainty. Injuries, regression or a difficult schedule could turn what appears to be a late first-round pick into something much more valuable. They have two 1sts next year, so it makes sense that they'd like to get a 1st back this year. Using one of those selections would allow Jacksonville to spread its draft capital across two classes rather than waiting an entire season to use both. It would also let the Jaguars add another young player while their current core is developing. They have a good roster but could be looking to improve the weapons for Jay Cutler. Jacksonville already has a promising young quarterback, and surrounding him with talent should be one of the team's priorities. A young receiver could grow alongside Cutler and give the Jaguars another explosive option in the passing game. A receiver with height would provide a different type of target, while a faster deep threat could make the offense even more dangerous. The Jaguars do not necessarily need to trade into the first round for a receiver, but they may act if one of their highly rated prospects falls much farther than expected. That is the type of situation where surrendering a future pick becomes easier to justify. They could also be looking to add another LB to their already strong LB corps. While linebacker may not be an immediate need, adding more speed to a strong group could make the defense even more difficult to attack. Jacksonville could select a developmental player without asking him to immediately become the leader of the defense. The biggest challenge will be remaining disciplined. Once the first round begins, it can be tempting to make a move simply to become involved. The Jaguars should not trade a future first for a player they only view as a second-round talent. They need to identify a clear cutoff point on their board and act only if a prospect above that line remains available. Jacksonville could also explore a smaller move involving multiple later selections, although acquiring a first-round pick without including future premium capital would be difficult. Another possibility would be trading a veteran player to a team that misses out on its preferred prospect. Draft-day disappointment can cause teams to reconsider trade opportunities that they previously rejected. Even if the Jaguars never complete a trade, their presence will create additional pressure near the end of the first round. Teams will know Jacksonville is calling and may use that interest to create bidding between multiple organizations. The Jaguars could end up influencing the price of several selections without ever officially going on the clock. Of the five teams listed, Jacksonville has the widest range of possible outcomes. It could finish the night without making a selection, trade into the late first round, or surprise everyone by making an aggressive move much higher. Their front office will have to determine whether getting a player one year earlier is worth the uncertainty of sacrificing future draft capital. The Packers, Buccaneers, Lions and Redskins will be watched because of the selections they already own. The Jaguars will be watched because of the selection they are trying to acquire. With so many teams holding multiple picks or considering major trades, the first round could change quickly. These five organizations have the resources and motivation to make some of the biggest decisions of the entire draft.
