PTF 2007 RECEIVING CORPS POWER RANKINGS
Who has the best collection of weapons now — and who is building the next great passing attack?
HOW THE RANKINGS WORK
This ranking uses the refreshed custom NOVR calculations for wide receivers and tight ends rather than the general GRD or OVR columns.
Team receiving score: the average of the three highest-rated WRs on the roster plus the highest-rated TE.
That gives every team a four-player receiving core and rewards both star power and usable depth.
Ravens are an owner-specified exception: Baltimore is scored with Paris Warren, Todd Watkins and Jason Hill at WR, because those are the three receivers the Ravens plan to play. A team with one superstar and three weak options will therefore rank below a room that can threaten a defense from several spots.
For the youth section, young talent means age 25 or younger. This is not a hidden POT rating. It simply identifies players who already have useful NOVR scores while still being young enough to have substantial long-term value.
League average receiving-corps score: 83.9
THE FULL LEAGUE RECEIVING CORPS POWER RANKING
1. Patriots — 95.00 — Avg Age 27.50
2. 49ers — 92.75 — Avg Age 27.50
3. Jets — 92.00 — Avg Age 28.50
4. Broncos — 90.00 — Avg Age 24.50
5. Giants — 89.00 — Avg Age 26.00
6. Panthers — 88.75 — Avg Age 27.75
7. Rams — 88.25 — Avg Age 28.00
8. Eagles — 88.00 — Avg Age 27.25
9. Titans — 87.25 — Avg Age 26.50
10. Lions — 87.00 — Avg Age 26.50
11. Colts — 86.50 — Avg Age 27.25
12. Seahawks — 86.25 — Avg Age 26.25
T13. Bengals — 85.75 — Avg Age 26.50
T13. Chiefs — 85.75 — Avg Age 27.50
15. Cardinals — 85.50 — Avg Age 29.50
16. Dolphins — 85.00 — Avg Age 26.50
17. Steelers — 83.75 — Avg Age 27.25
18. Texans — 83.50 — Avg Age 26.25
19. Packers — 83.00 — Avg Age 28.00
T20. Bears — 82.75 — Avg Age 24.75
T20. Vikings — 82.75 — Avg Age 26.00
22. Bills — 82.50 — Avg Age 26.25
23. Chargers — 81.50 — Avg Age 24.25
24. Redskins — 80.75 — Avg Age 23.75
25. Falcons — 80.25 — Avg Age 25.75
26. Saints — 78.75 — Avg Age 25.50
27. Browns — 78.50 — Avg Age 25.50
T28. Cowboys — 78.00 — Avg Age 25.75
T28. Jaguars — 78.00 — Avg Age 26.00
30. Ravens — 75.25 — Avg Age 24.25
31. Raiders — 74.25 — Avg Age 28.00
32. Buccaneers — 69.25 — Avg Age 27.75
New England owns the best receiving room in PTF by a clear margin. Steve Smith, Brandon Lloyd and Deion Branch give the Patriots three WRs at 96 or better by NOVR, and Randy McMichael adds an 88 at tight end. That produces a 95.0 team score and a 2.25-point advantage over second-place San Francisco.
The 49ers and Jets form the next tier, while Denver is the most impressive youth story near the top. The Broncos rank fourth despite a four-player scoring group averaging only 24.5 years old.
The middle of the league remains tightly packed. Only 1.5 points separate #11 Indianapolis from #16 Miami. A single strong WR2, WR3 or TE upgrade can therefore move a team several spots. At the bottom, Oakland and Tampa Bay have much larger talent gaps to close.
THE BEST RECEIVERS IN PTF
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Andre Johnson, Bears — 99 — Age 26
2. Steve Smith, Patriots — 99 — Age 28
3. Chad Johnson, Bengals — 99 — Age 29
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts — 99 — Age 29
5. Randy Moss, Steelers — 99 — Age 30
6. Torry Holt, Rams — 99 — Age 31
7. Braylon Edwards, Redskins — 98 — Age 24
8. Ronnie Brown, Broncos — 98 — Age 25
9. Roy Williams, Panthers — 98 — Age 25
10. Larry Fitzgerald, Browns — 98 — Age 26
11. Anquan Boldin, Lions — 98 — Age 27
12. Santana Moss, Rams — 98 — Age 28
13. David Boston, Titans — 98 — Age 29
14. Plaxico Burress, Chiefs — 98 — Age 30
15. Kassim Osgood, Saints — 97 — Age 26
The top of the WR pool is loaded. Six different players reach 99 NOVR: Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss and Torry Holt. Immediately behind them is another massive cluster of 98s and 97s.
There is no shortage of elite names, but that abundance is also the first warning sign that the current WR NOVR scale may be too generous at the top. The player ordering is generally believable; the amount of separation is not.
TIGHT END
1. Tony Gonzalez, Vikings — 99 — Age 31
2. Jeremy Shockey, Giants — 97 — Age 27
3. Antonio Gates, Lions — 96 — Age 26
4. Todd Heap, Ravens — 96 — Age 27
5. Dallas Clark, 49ers — 95 — Age 26
6. Heath Miller, Bears — 93 — Age 24
7. Jason Witten, Chargers — 93 — Age 25
8. Kellen Winslow II, Dolphins — 89 — Age 26
9. Eric Johnson, Panthers — 89 — Age 28
10. Randy McMichael, Patriots — 88 — Age 28
11. Daniel Graham, Ravens — 88 — Age 29
12. Alge Crumpler, Cardinals — 88 — Age 30
13. Anthony Becht, Jets — 88 — Age 30
14. Vernon Davis, Redskins — 87 — Age 23
15. Jerramy Stevens, Vikings — 86 — Age 28
Tight end is much less crowded at the top. Tony Gonzalez is the only 99, while Jeremy Shockey, Antonio Gates, Todd Heap and Dallas Clark form the rest of the 95+ elite tier.
That relative scarcity matters. A 95 TE creates a larger positional advantage than a 95 WR because there are far fewer comparable replacements available.
THE NEXT GENERATION — BEST RECEIVERS AGE 25 OR YOUNGER
YOUNG WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Braylon Edwards, Redskins — 98 — Age 24
2. Ronnie Brown, Broncos — 98 — Age 25
3. Roy Williams, Panthers — 98 — Age 25
4. Jerome Mathis, Jets — 95 — Age 24
5. Roddy White, Bengals — 94 — Age 24
6. Vincent Jackson, Chargers — 94 — Age 24
7. Brandon Marshall, Vikings — 93 — Age 23
8. Reggie Williams, Giants — 93 — Age 25
9. Greg Jennings, Jaguars — 92 — Age 24
10. Michael Clayton, 49ers — 91 — Age 25
11. Charles Rogers, Colts — 86 — Age 25
12. Paris Warren, Ravens — 85 — Age 24
13. Ernest Wilford, Texans — 85 — Age 25
14. Dante Ridgeway, Broncos — 84 — Age 24
15. Jacoby Ford, Seahawks — 84 — Age 25
Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown and Roy Williams headline the young WR class at 98. Edwards is especially attractive at only 24, while Jerome Mathis, Roddy White and Vincent Jackson already sit at 94 or better.
Brandon Marshall at 23/93 and Greg Jennings at 24/92 are the next wave. Calvin Johnson is still only 22, so his current 75 should be viewed very differently from a veteran 75.
YOUNG TIGHT ENDS
1. Heath Miller, Bears — 93 — Age 24
2. Jason Witten, Chargers — 93 — Age 25
3. Vernon Davis, Redskins — 87 — Age 23
4. Jerome Collins, Bills — 85 — Age 25
5. Marcedes Lewis, Falcons — 84 — Age 23
6. Adam Bergen, Broncos — 83 — Age 22
7. Owen Daniels, Texans — 83 — Age 25
8. Joel Dreessen, Titans — 81 — Age 25
9. Leonard Pope, Raiders — 80 — Age 24
10. Greg Olsen, Browns — 78 — Age 22
11. Garrett Mills, Patriots — 75 — Age 24
12. Jeff King, Bills — 71 — Age 24
13. Zach Miller, Titans — 69 — Age 22
14. Brad Cieslak, Texans — 68 — Age 25
15. Anthony Fasano, Cowboys — 67 — Age 23
Heath Miller and Jason Witten are already elite while still meeting the U25 cutoff. Vernon Davis is 23/87, Marcedes Lewis is 23/84 and Adam Bergen is only 22/83.
Because TE is thinner overall, these young players may be some of the most valuable long-term receiving assets in the entire league.
THE BEST YOUNG RECEIVING SITUATIONS
Broncos
The Broncos are the clearest present-and-future winner. They rank #4 overall at 90.0 and the four players used in the team score average only 24.5 years old. Ronnie Brown is already 25/98, Dante Ridgeway is 24/84 and Adam Bergen is a 22-year-old TE at 83.
Giants
The Giants are already #5 overall and have two important young WR pieces. Reggie Williams is 25/93, while Calvin Johnson is only 22. Shockey is only 27 and already 97, so this room has a strong bridge between current production and future upside.
Chargers
The Chargers are much better long term than their #23 current ranking suggests. Vincent Jackson is 24/94 and Jason Witten is 25/93. Every player in the current four-man scoring group is 25 or younger. At 24.25 average age, San Diego is tied with Baltimore for the second-youngest scoring unit in the league, behind Washington.
Redskins
Washington has the youngest four-player scoring group in PTF at 23.75. Braylon Edwards is 24/98 and Vernon Davis is 23/87. The current ranking is only #24 because WR2 and WR3 are not strong enough yet, but the two cornerstone pieces are already obvious.
Ravens
Baltimore's actual planned receiving group is also extremely young. Paris Warren is 24/85, Todd Watkins is 24/66 and Jason Hill is only 22/54, with Todd Heap providing the established star at TE at 27/96. The current 75.25 score ranks only #30, but the 24.25 average age shows exactly why Baltimore is willing to play the younger WRs now.
Texans
Houston has a useful young pair at two different positions: Ernest Wilford is 25/85 and Owen Daniels is 25/83. The room is only #18 today, but it has less age-related risk than many of the veteran-heavy units above it.
Jaguars
Jacksonville is T#28 today, but Greg Jennings at 24/92 changes the long-term outlook. LeRon McCoy is also 25/78 and the roster contains several other receivers 25 or younger. This is more of a development project than a finished room, but the foundation is better than the ranking suggests.
DIVISION-BY-DIVISION BREAKDOWN
AFC EAST
1. Patriots — 95.00 — League #1 — Avg Age 27.50
2. Jets — 92.00 — League #3 — Avg Age 28.50
3. Dolphins — 85.00 — League #16 — Avg Age 26.50
4. Bills — 82.50 — League #22 — Avg Age 26.25
The AFC East is the strongest receiving division in PTF. New England owns the #1 unit in the league with Steve Smith, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch and Randy McMichael. The Jets are not far behind at #3, driven by Hines Ward and the explosive 24-year-old Jerome Mathis. Miami has a good top end with Chris Chambers and Kellen Winslow II, while Buffalo is more developmental and lacks the same elite WR1 presence.
Young names to watch: Jerome Mathis (24/95), Jerome Collins (25/85), Craphonso Thorpe (24/80), Wes Welker (25/79), Garrett Mills (24/75), Jeff King (24/71).
AFC NORTH
1. Bengals — 85.75 — League T#13 — Avg Age 26.50
2. Steelers — 83.75 — League #17 — Avg Age 27.25
3. Browns — 78.50 — League #27 — Avg Age 25.50
4. Ravens — 75.25 — League #30 — Avg Age 24.25
The AFC North now has a clear separation at the top. Cincinnati leads the division, Pittsburgh sits second, and Cleveland moves ahead of Baltimore once the Ravens are scored using the receivers they actually plan to play.
Baltimore is an owner-specified exception to the normal top-three-WR rule: Paris Warren (85), Todd Watkins (66) and Jason Hill (54) are the three WRs used alongside Todd Heap (96). That produces a 75.25 score. The flip side is age: Warren is 24, Watkins 24 and Hill only 22, making Baltimore's selected four-player unit one of the youngest in the league at 24.25 average age.
Young names to watch: Roddy White (24/94), Paris Warren (24/85), Greg Olsen (22/7 , Todd Watkins (24/66), Jason Hill (22/54), Bennie Brazell (25/65).
AFC SOUTH
1. Titans — 87.25 — League #9 — Avg Age 26.50
2. Colts — 86.50 — League #11 — Avg Age 27.25
3. Texans — 83.50 — League #18 — Avg Age 26.25
4. Jaguars — 78.00 — League T#28 — Avg Age 26.00
Tennessee comes out on top with David Boston at 98 and a solid supporting group, while Indianapolis follows closely behind thanks to Reggie Wayne's 99. Houston is a more balanced, younger middle-tier room with Ernest Wilford and Owen Daniels both 25 and already in the mid-80s. Jacksonville has a major young piece in Greg Jennings, but its third receiver and tight end keep the unit near the bottom of the league.
Young names to watch: Greg Jennings (24/92), Charles Rogers (25/86), Ernest Wilford (25/85), Owen Daniels (25/83), Joel Dreessen (25/81), LeRon McCoy (25/7.
AFC WEST
1. Broncos — 90.00 — League #4 — Avg Age 24.50
2. Chiefs — 85.75 — League T#13 — Avg Age 27.50
3. Chargers — 81.50 — League #23 — Avg Age 24.25
4. Raiders — 74.25 — League #31 — Avg Age 28.00
Denver is the story of the AFC West. The Broncos are #4 in the entire league while their four-player scoring group averages only 24.5 years old. Ronnie Brown is already a 98, and both Dante Ridgeway and Adam Bergen are young contributors. Kansas City has two elite veterans in Plaxico Burress and T.J. Houshmanzadeh, but a 67 at TE prevents the group from climbing higher. San Diego has an excellent future core in Vincent Jackson and Jason Witten, but the WR2/WR3 slots are still weak. Oakland is the clear rebuilding room.
Young names to watch: Ronnie Brown (25/9, Vincent Jackson (24/94), Jason Witten (25/93), Dante Ridgeway (24/84), Adam Bergen (22/83), Leonard Pope (24/80).
NFC EAST
1. Giants — 89.00 — League #5 — Avg Age 26.00
2. Eagles — 88.00 — League #8 — Avg Age 27.25
3. Redskins — 80.75 — League #24 — Avg Age 23.75
4. Cowboys — 78.00 — League T#28 — Avg Age 25.75
The Giants and Eagles give the NFC East two top-eight receiving rooms. New York pairs Jeremy Shockey's 97 with Reggie Williams, Laveranues Coles and the young Calvin Johnson. Philadelphia has Antonio Bryant and Donte Stallworth at 97 and 96, but a lower TE score. Washington is one of the league's most interesting future rooms because Braylon Edwards and Vernon Davis are both elite young assets, even though depth holds the current ranking down. Dallas is in a similar position, but without the same top-end youth.
Young names to watch: Braylon Edwards (24/9, Reggie Williams (25/93), Vernon Davis (23/87), Tab Perry (25/81), Calvin Johnson (22/75), Marcus Maxwell (25/74).
NFC NORTH
1. Lions — 87.00 — League #10 — Avg Age 26.50
2. Packers — 83.00 — League #19 — Avg Age 28.00
3. Bears — 82.75 — League T#20 — Avg Age 24.75
4. Vikings — 82.75 — League T#20 — Avg Age 26.00
The NFC North is unusual because every team has at least one headline receiving asset. Detroit combines Anquan Boldin with Antonio Gates. Green Bay still has Donald Driver at 94. Chicago has Andre Johnson at 99 and Heath Miller at 93, while Minnesota combines the 99-rated Tony Gonzalez with Brandon Marshall at 23/93. The reason none of these teams ranks higher than #10 is depth: every room has at least one major weak spot in the four-player formula.
Young names to watch: Brandon Marshall (23/93), Heath Miller (24/93), Craig Bragg (24/80), Chris Henry (24/73), Chase Lyman (25/71), Brandon Jones (24/70).
NFC SOUTH
1. Panthers — 88.75 — League #6 — Avg Age 27.75
2. Falcons — 80.25 — League #25 — Avg Age 25.75
3. Saints — 78.75 — League #26 — Avg Age 25.50
4. Buccaneers — 69.25 — League #32 — Avg Age 27.75
Carolina is carrying this division. The Panthers rank #6 overall behind Roy Williams, Marty Booker and Eric Johnson, but the other three teams all sit 25th or worse. Atlanta at least has a young foundation with Marcedes Lewis and Derrick Hamilton. New Orleans has Kassim Osgood at 97 but little support, while Tampa Bay has the league's lowest-rated overall receiving room despite Rashaun Woods reaching 90.
Young names to watch: Roy Williams (25/9, Marcedes Lewis (23/84), Derrick Hamilton (25/82), Matt Jones (25/79), Larry Brackins (24/74), Sidney Rice (21/72).
NFC WEST
1. 49ers — 92.75 — League #2 — Avg Age 27.50
2. Rams — 88.25 — League #7 — Avg Age 28.00
3. Seahawks — 86.25 — League #12 — Avg Age 26.25
4. Cardinals — 85.50 — League #15 — Avg Age 29.50
The NFC West is only a fraction behind the AFC East and is clearly the deepest receiving division in the league. San Francisco ranks #2 with four strong scores and no glaring weakness. The Rams have the league's most frightening top WR pair in Torry Holt and Santana Moss at 99 and 98, although WR3 pulls the average down. Seattle is balanced rather than spectacular, while Arizona still finishes 15th despite being the weakest team in the division.
Young names to watch: Michael Clayton (25/91), Jacoby Ford (25/84), Airese Currie (24/76), Maurice Mann (25/76), Jeff Webb (25/62), L.J. Smith (25/62).
DIVISION STRENGTH RANKING
1. AFC EAST — 88.62
2. NFC WEST — 88.19
3. NFC EAST — 83.94
4. NFC NORTH — 83.88
5. AFC SOUTH — 83.81
6. AFC WEST — 82.88
7. AFC NORTH — 80.81
8. NFC SOUTH — 79.25
The AFC East and NFC West are the two clear receiving divisions at the top. Both average above 88, and each contains multiple top-12 teams. The NFC South is the only division below 80, largely because Carolina is surrounded by three bottom-seven receiving rooms.
WHAT SHOULD GMS VALUE?
1. Four-player depth matters. Several teams own a 98 or 99 WR and still rank in the bottom half because WR2, WR3 or TE is weak. Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Minnesota are good examples.
2. Elite TE remains scarce. Gonzalez, Shockey, Gates, Heap, Clark, Miller and Witten create a real positional advantage. The TE pool does not have the same giant 90+ cluster as WR.
3. The Broncos are the ideal age/quality combination. They are already #4 and their scoring group averages 24.5 years old.
4. Washington and San Diego are better future rooms than current rankings suggest. Edwards/Davis and Jackson/Witten give those teams two premium young building blocks each.
5. A single depth upgrade can change the middle of the table quickly. The gap between the #11 Colts and #16 Dolphins is only 1.5 points.
FINAL THOUGHTS
New England enters 2007 with the strongest complete receiving room in PTF. San Francisco is the most balanced challenger, the Jets have one of the best combinations of veteran quality and young explosiveness, and Denver may have the most attractive present-and-future setup in the league.
At the other end, Oakland and Tampa Bay need more than one star. The rankings repeatedly show that a great WR1 cannot fully compensate for weak WR2/WR3/TE depth.
The youth picture is equally interesting. Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown, Roy Williams, Jerome Mathis, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Greg Jennings form a strong young WR generation. At TE, Jason Witten, Heath Miller and Vernon Davis are especially valuable because high-end talent at that position is much harder to replace.
ONE IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT NOVR
After refreshing the WR and TE calculations, I still need to rethink the WR NOVR formula. In fact, the updated distribution makes the issue even clearer.
There are 41 WRs rated 90 or higher, 25 rated 95 or higher, and six different WRs at 99 NOVR. That is not healthy for a 0-99 rating scale.
By comparison, TE has only 7 players at 90+, 5 at 95+ and only one 99. The TE distribution looks much more natural.
The WR formula is generally identifying the correct star names, but it is compressing too many of them into the very top of the scale. There needs to be more separation between a generational WR, an elite WR1, a good WR1 and a strong WR2.
The names near the top make sense. The scale itself needs another pass.
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