PTF 2007 OFFENSIVE TALENT POWER RANKINGS
Putting the entire offense together: quarterback, line, receiving corps, backfield and fullback.
HOW THE RANKINGS WORK
This is the capstone offensive ranking built from the five separate unit studies: quarterback room, offensive line, receiving corps, halfback room and fullback.
OFFENSIVE SCORE = 30% QB + 25% OL + 25% RECEIVING + 15% HB + 5% FB
The idea is simple: quarterback should be the single most important unit, but the offense should not become a disguised QB ranking. The line and receiving corps each receive 25%, halfback receives 15%, and fullback receives 5%.
The unit scores are combined directly on their existing NOVR-based scales. They are not converted into percentile ranks. That means an actually weak unit still drags the offense down, while an elite unit keeps the magnitude of its advantage.
Internal unit formulas already account for depth:
- QB room: 80% QB1 + 20% QB2
- HB room: 75% HB1 + 25% HB2
- Receiving corps: WR1 + WR2 + WR3 + TE1 averaged
- OL: best LT + best two guards + best C + best RT averaged
- FB: best current FB on the roster
The 75/25 HB split has an empirical basis: the 2006 PTF rushing data showed the top two HBs split their combined carries almost exactly 75/25 league-wide.
League-average offensive score: 84.58
League median offensive score: 85.08
This is a talent and roster-construction ranking, not a prediction of points scored. Coaching, scheme, playbook, gameplanning and actual player performance can move an offense well above or below its talent score.
THE FULL LEAGUE OFFENSIVE POWER RANKING
1. Patriots — 89.07 — QB 89.0 | OL 82.8 | REC 95.00 | HB 89.8 | FB 89
2. Titans — 88.58 — QB 95.4 | OL 79.6 | REC 87.25 | HB 98.0 | FB 71
3. Vikings — 88.40 — QB 93.8 | OL 91.2 | REC 82.75 | HB 89.5 | FB 67
4. Jets — 88.27 — QB 84.8 | OL 89.2 | REC 92.00 | HB 91.2 | FB 77
5. 49ers — 87.75 — QB 87.2 | OL 87.0 | REC 92.75 | HB 87.0 | FB 72
6. Steelers — 87.46 — QB 88.4 | OL 88.4 | REC 83.75 | HB 89.0 | FB 91
7. Falcons — 87.43 — QB 92.8 | OL 89.6 | REC 80.25 | HB 93.2 | FB 63
8. Lions — 87.31 — QB 92.8 | OL 79.2 | REC 87.00 | HB 90.5 | FB 87
9. Cowboys — 86.75 — QB 93.6 | OL 87.4 | REC 78.00 | HB 93.5 | FB 66
10. Bears — 86.50 — QB 85.8 | OL 86.2 | REC 82.75 | HB 93.8 | FB 89
11. Saints — 86.12 — QB 90.0 | OL 86.8 | REC 78.75 | HB 96.2 | FB 66
12. Seahawks — 86.10 — QB 86.8 | OL 86.0 | REC 86.25 | HB 87.0 | FB 79
13. Rams — 86.01 — QB 88.4 | OL 85.2 | REC 88.25 | HB 83.5 | FB 72
14. Cardinals — 85.92 — QB 87.6 | OL 85.0 | REC 85.50 | HB 90.8 | FB 68
15. Giants — 85.65 — QB 82.6 | OL 86.2 | REC 89.00 | HB 88.8 | FB 75
16. Chargers — 85.41 — QB 85.2 | OL 87.2 | REC 81.50 | HB 90.8 | FB 81
17. Colts — 84.75 — QB 87.4 | OL 81.4 | REC 86.50 | HB 85.0 | FB 76
18. Ravens — 84.68 — QB 86.8 | OL 84.6 | REC 75.25 | HB 92.2 | FB 97
19. Dolphins — 84.30 — QB 84.6 | OL 88.6 | REC 85.00 | HB 83.8 | FB 59
20. Broncos — 83.98 — QB 80.0 | OL 81.6 | REC 90.00 | HB 88.2 | FB 77
21. Eagles — 83.78 — QB 88.0 | OL 85.0 | REC 88.00 | HB 74.2 | FB 60
22. Bills — 83.66 — QB 84.8 | OL 85.8 | REC 82.50 | HB 92.0 | FB 47
23. Chiefs — 83.25 — QB 86.6 | OL 86.4 | REC 85.75 | HB 75.2 | FB 59
24. Redskins — 82.70 — QB 80.8 | OL 87.6 | REC 80.75 | HB 82.8 | FB 79
25. Panthers — 82.00 — QB 78.6 | OL 79.4 | REC 88.75 | HB 89.2 | FB 60
26. Jaguars — 81.75 — QB 74.4 | OL 84.2 | REC 78.00 | HB 97.5 | FB 85
27. Raiders — 80.78 — QB 84.8 | OL 83.4 | REC 74.25 | HB 91.2 | FB 45
28. Texans — 80.59 — QB 79.0 | OL 78.4 | REC 83.50 | HB 91.8 | FB 53
29. Bengals — 80.46 — QB 85.4 | OL 81.8 | REC 85.75 | HB 71.0 | FB 46
30. Browns — 79.95 — QB 72.0 | OL 85.6 | REC 78.50 | HB 90.5 | FB 75
31. Packers — 79.31 — QB 82.2 | OL 76.8 | REC 83.00 | HB 73.0 | FB 75
32. Buccaneers — 77.74 — QB 81.0 | OL 84.2 | REC 69.25 | HB 78.2 | FB 67
THE TOP OF THE LEAGUE
1. Patriots — 89.07
New England does not own the #1 QB room or the #1 offensive line, but it has the best complete offensive profile. The league’s #1 receiving corps at 95.0 is supported by an 89.0 QB room, 89.8 HB room and 89 FB. The 82.8 OL is the obvious weakness, but it is not weak enough to erase elite skill-position depth.
2. Titans — 88.58
Tennessee owns the two most valuable unit wins in the entire exercise: the #1 QB room at 95.4 and the #1 HB room at 98.0. The receiving corps is also strong at 87.25. What keeps the Titans from #1 overall is the supporting infrastructure: the OL is only 79.6 and FB is 71.
3. Vikings — 88.40
Minnesota is built from the inside out. The Vikings own the league’s best OL at 91.2 and the #2 QB room at 93.8, then add an 89.5 HB room. The receiving corps at 82.75 and FB at 67 are the two places keeping them from the top spot.
4. Jets — 88.27
The Jets are the first major example of a great supporting cast lifting a merely good QB room. Alex Smith and Matt Moore produce an 84.8 QB score, but the Jets surround them with a 92.0 receiving corps, 91.2 HB room and 89.2 OL. No other team gives its quarterback a better non-QB support score.
5. 49ers — 87.75
San Francisco is strong almost everywhere that carries major weight: 87.2 at QB, 87.0 on the OL, 92.75 receiving and 87.0 at HB. The 72 FB is the only clearly below-elite unit. That broad strength produces a top-five offense without needing a 95+ quarterback.
The next cluster is extremely tight. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Detroit and Dallas are separated by less than one point, and each gets there in a very different way.
THE FIVE UNIT CHAMPIONS
QB room: Titans — 95.4
Offensive line: Vikings — 91.2
Receiving corps: Patriots — 95.0
HB room: Titans — 98.0
Fullback: Ravens — 97
Tennessee is the only team to win two major offensive units, which explains why the Titans are #2 despite a bottom-five offensive line. New England wins the overall ranking by combining the best receiving room with no catastrophic weakness in the other high-weight areas.
BEST SUPPORTING CASTS AROUND THE QB
To isolate the environment around the quarterback, this score removes QB entirely and re-normalizes OL, receiving, HB and FB to 100%.
1. Jets — Support Score 89.76 — QB Room 84.8 — Overall #4
2. Patriots — Support Score 89.10 — QB Room 89.0 — Overall #1
3. 49ers — Support Score 87.98 — QB Room 87.2 — Overall #5
4. Steelers — Support Score 87.05 — QB Room 88.4 — Overall #6
5. Giants — Support Score 86.96 — QB Room 82.6 — Overall #15
6. Bears — Support Score 86.80 — QB Room 85.8 — Overall #10
7. Vikings — Support Score 86.09 — QB Room 93.8 — Overall #3
8. Seahawks — Support Score 85.80 — QB Room 86.8 — Overall #12
9. Broncos — Support Score 85.69 — QB Room 80.0 — Overall #20
10. Titans — Support Score 85.66 — QB Room 95.4 — Overall #2
The Jets lead the league here. Their #4 overall offense is not being carried by the quarterback room; it is being created by one of the best combinations of line, receivers and backs in PTF.
The Giants are the most interesting team in the top five of this section. Their supporting cast grades 86.96, but the QB room is only 82.6. That creates obvious upside if the quarterback situation improves.
THE MOST QB-DEPENDENT OFFENSES
Here, “QB-dependent” means the QB-room score sits well above the quality of the non-QB supporting cast. It does not mean the offense will fail; it identifies where the roster’s biggest relative advantage is concentrated.
1. Cowboys — QB 93.6 vs Support 83.82 — Gap +9.78
2. Titans — QB 95.4 vs Support 85.66 — Gap +9.74
3. Lions — QB 92.8 vs Support 84.96 — Gap +7.84
4. Vikings — QB 93.8 vs Support 86.09 — Gap +7.71
5. Falcons — QB 92.8 vs Support 85.13 — Gap +7.67
6. Bengals — QB 85.4 vs Support 78.34 — Gap +7.06
7. Eagles — QB 88.0 vs Support 81.97 — Gap +6.03
8. Raiders — QB 84.8 vs Support 79.06 — Gap +5.74
Dallas is the clearest example. Drew Brees and J.P. Losman produce a 93.6 QB room, and the HB room is excellent, but a 78.0 receiving score and 66 FB pull the rest of the support package down.
Tennessee is almost equally QB-heavy relative to its support, although the Titans also have the league’s #1 HB room. Their real roster problem is the offensive line rather than a lack of skill talent.
THE OFFENSES MOST LIMITED BY QB
These teams have supporting casts that grade materially better than their QB rooms.
1. Browns — QB 72.0 vs Support 83.36 — Gap -11.36
2. Jaguars — QB 74.4 vs Support 84.89 — Gap -10.49
3. Broncos — QB 80.0 vs Support 85.69 — Gap -5.69
4. Jets — QB 84.8 vs Support 89.76 — Gap -4.96
5. Panthers — QB 78.6 vs Support 83.45 — Gap -4.85
6. Giants — QB 82.6 vs Support 86.96 — Gap -4.36
7. Redskins — QB 80.8 vs Support 83.51 — Gap -2.71
8. Texans — QB 79.0 vs Support 81.28 — Gap -2.28
Cleveland is the clearest case in the league. The Browns have a solid 85.6 OL and a 90.5 HB room, but the 72.0 QB room is dead last and drags the total offense to #30.
Jacksonville is similar in a different way: the Jaguars own the #2 HB room and an 85 FB, but the 74.4 QB room leaves a huge amount of supporting talent under-leveraged on paper.
THE BEST NO-WEAK-LINK OFFENSES
This section ranks teams by the score of their weakest offensive unit. It rewards offenses that do not have an obvious roster hole.
1. Steelers — Weakest Unit 83.75 — Overall 87.46
2. Patriots — Weakest Unit 82.80 — Overall 89.07
3. Bears — Weakest Unit 82.75 — Overall 86.50
4. Chargers — Weakest Unit 81.00 — Overall 85.41
5. Lions — Weakest Unit 79.20 — Overall 87.31
6. Seahawks — Weakest Unit 79.00 — Overall 86.10
7. Redskins — Weakest Unit 79.00 — Overall 82.70
8. Jets — Weakest Unit 77.00 — Overall 88.27
9. Broncos — Weakest Unit 77.00 — Overall 83.98
10. Colts — Weakest Unit 76.00 — Overall 84.75
Pittsburgh owns the best floor in PTF. Its weakest unit is still the 83.75 receiving corps, while QB, OL, HB and FB all sit between 88.4 and 91. That is why the Steelers rank #6 overall without owning a single #1 unit.
Seattle is another model of balance: QB 86.8, OL 86.0, receiving 86.25 and HB 87.0 are almost identical. The 79 FB is the only meaningful drop.
YOUNG OFFENSIVE FOUNDATIONS
For a broad age check, each unit’s scored-player average age is combined using the same 30/25/25/15/5 offensive weights. This is an age index, not a hidden POT rating.
1. Broncos — Weighted Age 25.18 — Offensive Rank #20 — Score 83.98
2. Ravens — Weighted Age 25.44 — Offensive Rank #18 — Score 84.68
3. Chargers — Weighted Age 25.54 — Offensive Rank #16 — Score 85.41
4. Packers — Weighted Age 25.65 — Offensive Rank #31 — Score 79.31
5. Falcons — Weighted Age 25.76 — Offensive Rank #7 — Score 87.43
6. Texans — Weighted Age 25.84 — Offensive Rank #28 — Score 80.59
7. Bengals — Weighted Age 25.95 — Offensive Rank #29 — Score 80.46
8. Browns — Weighted Age 26.15 — Offensive Rank #30 — Score 79.95
9. Bills — Weighted Age 26.16 — Offensive Rank #22 — Score 83.66
10. Redskins — Weighted Age 26.19 — Offensive Rank #24 — Score 82.70
Atlanta is the standout combination of youth and current quality: the Falcons have one of the ten youngest offensive profiles in the league and still rank #7 overall.
Denver is the youngest offense by this index and already has the #4 receiving corps plus an 88.2 HB room, but the 80.0 QB room and 81.6 OL keep the Broncos at #20 today.
Baltimore and San Diego also combine young overall age profiles with top-20 offensive scores, while Green Bay is young but still needs significant present-day improvement.
DIVISION-BY-DIVISION BREAKDOWN
AFC EAST
1. Patriots — 89.07 — League #1 — QB 89.0 | OL 82.8 | REC 95.00 | HB 89.8 | FB 89
2. Jets — 88.27 — League #4 — QB 84.8 | OL 89.2 | REC 92.00 | HB 91.2 | FB 77
3. Dolphins — 84.30 — League #19 — QB 84.6 | OL 88.6 | REC 85.00 | HB 83.8 | FB 59
4. Bills — 83.66 — League #22 — QB 84.8 | OL 85.8 | REC 82.50 | HB 92.0 | FB 47
New England and the Jets give the AFC East two top-four offenses, but they get there differently: the Patriots own the league’s best receiving room, while the Jets own the best overall supporting cast around the QB.
AFC NORTH
1. Steelers — 87.46 — League #6 — QB 88.4 | OL 88.4 | REC 83.75 | HB 89.0 | FB 91
2. Ravens — 84.68 — League #18 — QB 86.8 | OL 84.6 | REC 75.25 | HB 92.2 | FB 97
3. Bengals — 80.46 — League #29 — QB 85.4 | OL 81.8 | REC 85.75 | HB 71.0 | FB 46
4. Browns — 79.95 — League #30 — QB 72.0 | OL 85.6 | REC 78.50 | HB 90.5 | FB 75
Pittsburgh is the division’s clear standard because it has no weak offensive unit. Baltimore has elite HB and FB talent, but its receiving corps prevents the Ravens from joining the top ten. Cincinnati and Cleveland both have major structural holes.
AFC SOUTH
1. Titans — 88.58 — League #2 — QB 95.4 | OL 79.6 | REC 87.25 | HB 98.0 | FB 71
2. Colts — 84.75 — League #17 — QB 87.4 | OL 81.4 | REC 86.50 | HB 85.0 | FB 76
3. Jaguars — 81.75 — League #26 — QB 74.4 | OL 84.2 | REC 78.00 | HB 97.5 | FB 85
4. Texans — 80.59 — League #28 — QB 79.0 | OL 78.4 | REC 83.50 | HB 91.8 | FB 53
Tennessee is the division’s heavyweight with the league’s #1 QB and HB rooms. Indianapolis is solid across the board, while Jacksonville and Houston have strong running-game pieces but are held back by quarterback and/or line quality.
AFC WEST
1. Chargers — 85.41 — League #16 — QB 85.2 | OL 87.2 | REC 81.50 | HB 90.8 | FB 81
2. Broncos — 83.98 — League #20 — QB 80.0 | OL 81.6 | REC 90.00 | HB 88.2 | FB 77
3. Chiefs — 83.25 — League #23 — QB 86.6 | OL 86.4 | REC 85.75 | HB 75.2 | FB 59
4. Raiders — 80.78 — League #27 — QB 84.8 | OL 83.4 | REC 74.25 | HB 91.2 | FB 45
San Diego is the most complete current offense in the division. Denver has the best receiving score and the youngest profile, while Kansas City is reasonably balanced but lacks a high-end HB room. Oakland is too uneven.
NFC EAST
1. Cowboys — 86.75 — League #9 — QB 93.6 | OL 87.4 | REC 78.00 | HB 93.5 | FB 66
2. Giants — 85.65 — League #15 — QB 82.6 | OL 86.2 | REC 89.00 | HB 88.8 | FB 75
3. Eagles — 83.78 — League #21 — QB 88.0 | OL 85.0 | REC 88.00 | HB 74.2 | FB 60
4. Redskins — 82.70 — League #24 — QB 80.8 | OL 87.6 | REC 80.75 | HB 82.8 | FB 79
Dallas has the division’s highest ceiling because of its elite QB and HB rooms, but the receiving corps is a major drag. The Giants have the best supporting cast around a weaker QB room, and Philadelphia is almost the reverse: good QB and receivers, poor HB/FB.
NFC NORTH
1. Vikings — 88.40 — League #3 — QB 93.8 | OL 91.2 | REC 82.75 | HB 89.5 | FB 67
2. Lions — 87.31 — League #8 — QB 92.8 | OL 79.2 | REC 87.00 | HB 90.5 | FB 87
3. Bears — 86.50 — League #10 — QB 85.8 | OL 86.2 | REC 82.75 | HB 93.8 | FB 89
4. Packers — 79.31 — League #31 — QB 82.2 | OL 76.8 | REC 83.00 | HB 73.0 | FB 75
Minnesota and Detroit both sit in the overall top eight. The Vikings are powered by the league’s best OL and the #2 QB room, while Detroit leans on elite QB/HB quality. Chicago is the division’s most balanced offense.
NFC SOUTH
1. Falcons — 87.43 — League #7 — QB 92.8 | OL 89.6 | REC 80.25 | HB 93.2 | FB 63
2. Saints — 86.12 — League #11 — QB 90.0 | OL 86.8 | REC 78.75 | HB 96.2 | FB 66
3. Panthers — 82.00 — League #25 — QB 78.6 | OL 79.4 | REC 88.75 | HB 89.2 | FB 60
4. Buccaneers — 77.74 — League #32 — QB 81.0 | OL 84.2 | REC 69.25 | HB 78.2 | FB 67
Atlanta and New Orleans both have top-11 offenses built around elite backfields and strong quarterbacks. Carolina has excellent receiving and HB quality but a weak QB room, while Tampa Bay is the league’s lowest-rated offense.
NFC WEST
1. 49ers — 87.75 — League #5 — QB 87.2 | OL 87.0 | REC 92.75 | HB 87.0 | FB 72
2. Seahawks — 86.10 — League #12 — QB 86.8 | OL 86.0 | REC 86.25 | HB 87.0 | FB 79
3. Rams — 86.01 — League #13 — QB 88.4 | OL 85.2 | REC 88.25 | HB 83.5 | FB 72
4. Cardinals — 85.92 — League #14 — QB 87.6 | OL 85.0 | REC 85.50 | HB 90.8 | FB 68
This is the strongest offensive division in PTF. San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis and Arizona all rank in the top 14, and there is no weak offense in the group.
DIVISION OFFENSIVE STRENGTH RANKING
1. NFC WEST — 86.45
2. AFC EAST — 86.33
3. NFC NORTH — 85.38
4. NFC EAST — 84.72
5. AFC SOUTH — 83.92
6. AFC WEST — 83.35
7. NFC SOUTH — 83.32
8. AFC NORTH — 83.14
The NFC West takes the crown because all four teams are good. The AFC East is almost identical at the top of the division table thanks to New England and the Jets, while the NFC North gets two top-eight offenses from Minnesota and Detroit.
GM TAKEAWAYS
1. There is more than one way to build an elite offense. New England wins with receivers and overall balance; Tennessee wins QB/HB; Minnesota wins QB/OL; the Jets win supporting cast.
2. Quarterback matters most, but it does not erase everything else. Jacksonville and Cleveland show the downside of weak QB rooms, while the Jets show that elite support can still create a top-five talent profile without a top-ten QB room.
3. Offensive line is a real separator. Tennessee would likely run away with this ranking if its 79.6 OL were even average. Minnesota’s 91.2 line is a major reason the Vikings stay near the top despite weaker receiving and FB scores.
4. Receiving depth matters as much as OL in this formula. New England and San Francisco gain enormous value from elite receiving rooms; Dallas and Baltimore lose a lot because their receiver/TE groups sit well below their other offensive strengths.
5. HB depth is meaningful but correctly secondary. The 75/25 room score reflects actual PTF carry usage while keeping HB1 far more important than HB2.
6. FB can matter without controlling the ranking. Baltimore’s 97 and Pittsburgh’s 91 provide real value, but the 5% weight prevents a scarcity position from overpowering QB, OL, receiving or HB.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The most interesting part of the combined ranking is that there is no single blueprint at the top.
New England finishes #1 without an elite offensive line because the Patriots surround a strong QB room with the best receiving corps in PTF and excellent HB/FB scores. Tennessee finishes #2 despite a bottom-five line because Culpepper’s QB room and McGahee’s backfield are both #1. Minnesota gets to #3 through the opposite construction: elite quarterback play behind the best offensive line in the league.
The Jets may be the best roster-construction story. Their QB room ranks only around the middle of the league, but nobody gives its quarterbacks more support. That is enough to produce the #4 overall offense.
At the other end, Tampa Bay has too many ordinary or weak units to be rescued by any single strength. Green Bay is young but not ready. Cleveland and Jacksonville have enough non-QB talent to be interesting, but both are clearly quarterback-limited by this model.
This ranking should be read as a snapshot of offensive roster quality entering 2007. It tells us who has the pieces. The season will tell us who actually knows how to use them.
OFFENSIVE WEIGHTS
QB 30% | OL 25% | Receiving 25% | HB 15% | FB 5%
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