PTF 2007 WEEK 2 INJURY REPORT
Who was actually hurt the most? NOVR, depth-chart value and estimated team impact.
HOW THE IMPACT IS MEASURED
A player's NOVR tells us how good he is. It does not automatically tell us how damaging his injury is.
For this report, each injured player is removed from the same depth-chart model used in the position power rankings. The next available player moves up, the affected unit is recalculated, and that change is then passed through the established offensive or defensive weighting and finally the 50/50 Complete Team Score.
Estimated Team Hit therefore measures how many points the injury removes from the team's Complete Team Score while the player is unavailable.
This is especially useful for injuries like Nate Clements versus Will Blackmon: Clements is vastly better individually, but Buffalo has elite CB depth while the Rams fall off a cliff behind Blackmon.
WEEK 2 INJURIES — TEAM IMPACT RANKING
1. Drew Brees, Cowboys — QB — NOVR 95 — Out for season
Importance: CRITICAL — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -1.29
QB room 93.60 → QB room 85.00
Next man up: J.P. Losman 88 becomes QB1; Drew Stanton 73 moves into QB2
The biggest single injury on the list. Brees is the Cowboys' QB1 and the 80%-weighted centerpiece of a top-three QB room.
2. Koren Robinson, Seahawks — WR — NOVR 92 — 6 weeks
Importance: VERY HIGH — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.94
Receiving 86.25 → Receiving 78.75
Next man up: Zuriel Smith 85 / Jacoby Ford 84 remain; Jeff Webb 62 enters the scored top three
Seattle loses its WR1 and, more importantly, falls off a depth cliff at WR3. This is the second-largest modeled team hit.
3. Will Blackmon, Rams — CB — NOVR 78 — 1 week
Importance: VERY HIGH — SHORT TERM — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.85
Secondary 82.48 → Secondary 76.80
Next man up: Keith Smith 87 remains CB1; Ray Perryman 55 and Jason Bostic 50 are forced upward
His NOVR is only 78, but he is far more important than that number suggests because the Rams have almost no CB depth behind him.
4. Chris Hope, Jaguars — FS — NOVR 98 — Out for season
Importance: CRITICAL — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.49
Secondary 90.10 → Secondary 86.85
Next man up: Mike Doss 85 replaces him at FS
An elite 98 NOVR free safety at the most heavily weighted individual secondary spot. The season-long duration makes this one of the most damaging injuries overall.
5. Mike Rumph, 49ers — CB — NOVR 93 — 4 weeks
Importance: HIGH — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.44
Secondary 83.63 → Secondary 80.73
Next man up: Waine Bacon 86 becomes CB1; Reynaldo Hill 81 moves up; Jason David 79 enters the top three
Rumph is San Francisco's clear CB1. The replacements are playable, but every corner shifts one slot upward.
6. Colin Branch, Patriots — SS — NOVR 78 — 1 week
Importance: HIGH — SHORT TERM — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.42
Secondary 88.78 → Secondary 85.98
Next man up: C.C. Brown 64 replaces him at SS
The Patriots' excellent corner play hides how thin they are at strong safety. One week without Branch creates a 14-point starter drop at SS.
7. Courtney Anderson, Cowboys — TE — NOVR 80 — 8 weeks
Importance: HIGH — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.41
Receiving 78.00 → Receiving 74.75
Next man up: Anthony Fasano 67 becomes the scored TE
Dallas was already weak at receiving. Losing its best TE deepens the exact weakness that the roster already had.
8. Nate Clements, Bills — CB — NOVR 99 — 6 weeks
Importance: HIGH PLAYER VALUE / MODERATE TEAM HIT — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.30
Secondary 93.80 → Secondary 91.80
Next man up: Shawn Springs 93 / Fernando Bryant 91 move up; Eric Warfield 89 enters the top three
Clements is one of the best players in the league, but Buffalo is uniquely equipped to survive the injury because its corner depth is outstanding.
9. Mike Hawkins, Panthers — CB — NOVR 84 — 1 week
Importance: LOW–MODERATE — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.11
Secondary 85.08 → Secondary 84.38
Next man up: Fakhir Brown 84 holds the CB2 level; Rashard Anderson 77 enters the top three
Hawkins matters, but the Panthers have another 84 corner directly behind him. The short duration also limits the damage.
10. Kelly Campbell, Vikings — WR — NOVR 66 — 3 weeks
Importance: LOW — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.00
Receiving 82.75 → Receiving 82.75
Next man up: Todd Kinchen 66 already occupies the third scored WR slot
Campbell is useful depth, but the current top-three receiving calculation does not change because Minnesota has an equal-NOVR replacement.
11. Alan Branch, Packers — RE — NOVR 53 — 8 weeks
Importance: LOW — Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.00
DE room 90.50 → DE room 90.50
Next man up: Dewayne White 85 remains the starting RE
Branch is a massive 350-pound developmental/depth piece, but he is not currently part of Green Bay's scored starting DE pair.
THE BIGGEST LOSER: DALLAS
Drew Brees — QB — 95 NOVR — OUT FOR SEASON
This is comfortably the biggest injury of the week.
Dallas entered the season with the #3 QB room at 93.60: Drew Brees 95 backed by J.P. Losman 88. With Brees gone, Losman becomes QB1 and Drew Stanton 73 becomes the scored QB2.
QB room: 93.60 → 85.00
Offensive-score impact: -2.58
Complete-team impact: -1.29
That is before accounting for the second Dallas injury.
Courtney Anderson — TE — 80 NOVR — 8 WEEKS
Anderson was the best tight end on a receiving corps that already ranked near the bottom of PTF. Anthony Fasano 67 now takes the TE slot.
Receiving: 78.00 → 74.75
Complete-team impact: -0.41
Together, the two injuries cut Dallas from approximately 87.52 to 85.82 in the current roster model.
On a Week 3 injury-adjusted board, that moves the Cowboys from #3 to about #7.
Dallas is still a strong roster, but it is no longer the same team that opened the year with Brees running the offense.
SEASON-ENDING LOSS: CHRIS HOPE
Chris Hope — Jaguars — FS — 98 NOVR
Jacksonville loses an elite free safety at the position we deliberately weighted more heavily than strong safety.
Hope was the 98 NOVR anchor of a secondary that scored 90.10. Mike Doss is a respectable 85, but that is still a 13-point downgrade at a position carrying 25% of the secondary formula.
Secondary: 90.10 → 86.85
Complete-team impact: -0.49
Because the injury lasts the entire season, this is more damaging in long-term roster value than several short injuries with a larger one-game model hit.
SEATTLE'S OFFENSE TAKES A REAL HIT
Koren Robinson — Seahawks — WR — 92 NOVR — 6 WEEKS
Robinson is not merely a good receiver; he is the player holding Seattle's WR depth chart together.
Before the injury, the scored receiving group was Koren Robinson 92, Zuriel Smith 85, Jacoby Ford 84 and TE Mike Seidman 84.
Without Robinson, Jeff Webb 62 has to enter the top three.
Receiving: 86.25 → 78.75
Complete-team impact: -0.94
That is the second-largest single modeled hit of the week. For a Seattle team whose early-season success has been driven heavily by offense, this one matters.
THE STRANGE CASE OF NATE CLEMENTS
Nate Clements — Bills — CB — 99 NOVR — 6 WEEKS
Clements is arguably the best injured non-quarterback on the list, yet Buffalo absorbs his absence better than most teams would.
The reason is depth.
Buffalo can move Shawn Springs 93 and Fernando Bryant 91 up the depth chart, then bring Eric Warfield 89 into the scored CB3 spot.
Secondary: 93.80 → 91.80
Complete-team impact: -0.30
So this is a major player loss but only a moderate roster-model loss. Buffalo's secondary remains excellent even without a 99 NOVR corner.
DEPTH MATTERS: WILL BLACKMON
Will Blackmon — Rams — CB — 78 NOVR — 1 WEEK
Blackmon is the perfect example of why injury importance cannot be ranked by NOVR alone.
He is only a 78, but the Rams' next corners are Ray Perryman 55 and Jason Bostic 50. Removing Blackmon forces both into major roles.
Secondary: 82.48 → 76.80
Complete-team impact: -0.85
That is a larger one-game model hit than losing Chris Hope 98 or Nate Clements 99. Fortunately for St. Louis, the injury is only one week.
OTHER IMPORTANT LOSSES
Mike Rumph, 49ers — CB — 93 NOVR — 4 weeks
Rumph is San Francisco's CB1. Waine Bacon 86 and Reynaldo Hill 81 can move up, but the secondary falls from 83.63 to 80.73. Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.44.
Colin Branch, Patriots — SS — 78 NOVR — 1 week
The Patriots are strong at CB but thin at SS. C.C. Brown 64 replaces Branch, dropping the secondary from 88.78 to 85.98. Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.42.
Mike Hawkins, Panthers — CB — 84 NOVR — 1 week
Carolina is well protected by Fakhir Brown 84. The main change is Rashard Anderson 77 entering CB3, so the secondary only drops 0.70 points. Estimated Complete-Team Hit: -0.11.
THE LOW-IMPACT INJURIES
Kelly Campbell, Vikings — WR — 66 NOVR — 3 weeks
Minnesota already has Todd Kinchen at the same 66 NOVR level in the scored WR3 spot. The injury hurts depth, but it does not change the current receiving score.
Alan Branch, Packers — RE — 53 NOVR — 8 weeks
Branch is a huge 350-pound body and an interesting developmental piece, but he is behind Dewayne White 85 at RE. The current starting DE room remains unchanged.
WEEK 3 INJURY-ADJUSTED TEAM SNAPSHOT
If we temporarily remove every injured player listed above from the same roster model, the most meaningful affected-team changes are:
Bills — 87.38 → 87.08 (-0.30) — injury-adjusted league #4
Cowboys — 87.52 → 85.82 (-1.70) — injury-adjusted league #7
Patriots — 86.22 → 85.80 (-0.42) — injury-adjusted league #8
49ers — 85.83 → 85.39 (-0.44) — injury-adjusted league #13
Vikings — 85.23 → 85.23 (+0.00) — injury-adjusted league #14
Jaguars — 84.97 → 84.48 (-0.49) — injury-adjusted league #19
Rams — 84.53 → 83.68 (-0.85) — injury-adjusted league #21
Panthers — 83.37 → 83.26 (-0.11) — injury-adjusted league #23
Packers — 81.92 → 81.92 (+0.00) — injury-adjusted league #27
Seahawks — 81.17 → 80.23 (-0.94) — injury-adjusted league #31
The Cowboys take the largest combined hit because they lose both Brees and Anderson. Seattle takes the next-largest single-team reduction because Robinson's injury forces a major drop at WR3. Buffalo, despite losing a 99 NOVR player, remains near the top because of exceptional corner depth.
FINAL INJURY IMPORTANCE ORDER
1. Drew Brees, Cowboys — CRITICAL
2. Chris Hope, Jaguars — CRITICAL
3. Koren Robinson, Seahawks — VERY HIGH
4. Nate Clements, Bills — VERY HIGH player value, softened by elite depth
5. Courtney Anderson, Cowboys — HIGH
6. Mike Rumph, 49ers — HIGH
7. Will Blackmon, Rams — VERY HIGH for Week 3 only
8. Colin Branch, Patriots — HIGH for Week 3 only
9. Mike Hawkins, Panthers — LOW–MODERATE
10. Kelly Campbell, Vikings — LOW
11. Alan Branch, Packers — LOW
The key lesson is simple: NOVR measures the player; depth determines the damage.
Brees is both elite and irreplaceable, so Dallas gets crushed. Clements is elite too, but Buffalo can survive because its fourth corner is still an 89. Blackmon is only a 78, yet losing him matters enormously because the Rams have almost nothing behind him.
Estimated team impact uses the same established 2007 PTF unit formulas and the current next-man-up depth chart. It measures roster talent loss, not guaranteed on-field performance.
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