PTF 2007 WEEK 3 INJURY REPORT
Breaking down the Week 3 injuries by NOVR, replacement quality and actual roster impact.
HOW THE IMPACT IS MEASURED
As with last week's report, NOVR tells us how good the injured player is — but depth tells us how damaging the injury actually is.
Each injured player is removed from the same depth-chart structure used in the position power rankings. The next available player moves up, the affected unit score is recalculated, and the difference is passed through the established offensive or defensive weights and finally through the 50/50 Complete Team Score.
Estimated Complete-Team Hit is therefore the amount of roster-talent score lost while the player is unavailable.
WEEK 3 INJURIES — QUICK VIEW
Buccaneers — Dan Morgan — MLB — NOVR 89 — Out for season — CRITICAL — Estimated Team Hit: -2.10
Bengals — Michael Bennett — HB — NOVR 75 — 1 week — VERY HIGH — WEEK 4 — Estimated Team Hit: -1.11
Falcons — Marcedes Lewis — TE — NOVR 84 — 1 week — VERY HIGH — WEEK 4 — Estimated Team Hit: -0.81
Seahawks — Dawan Landry — SS — NOVR 72 — 1 week — HIGH — WEEK 4 — Estimated Team Hit: -0.57
Falcons — Brandon McDonald — CB — NOVR 73 — 7 weeks — MODERATE DEPTH LOSS — Estimated Team Hit: -0.00
Giants — Terdell Sands — DT — NOVR 56 — 2 weeks — LOW–MODERATE — Estimated Team Hit: -0.00
Saints — Josh Gattis — FS — NOVR 60 — 1 week — LOW — Estimated Team Hit: -0.00
Seahawks — Ronney Jenkins — HB — NOVR 40 — 2 weeks — LOW — Estimated Team Hit: -0.00
1. TAMPA BAY LOSES THE MIDDLE OF ITS DEFENSE
Dan Morgan — Buccaneers — MLB — 89 NOVR — OUT FOR SEASON
This is easily the most damaging Week 3 injury.
Morgan is Tampa Bay's starting MLB and the player around whom the middle of the 4-3 defense is built. Because a 4-3 uses one scored Mike linebacker in our model, there is no second starter to soften the loss.
Darrell McClover 68 becomes the next man up.
MLB room: 89.00 → 68.00
Defensive-score impact: -4.20
Complete-team impact: -2.10
Tampa Bay's original Complete Team Score of 81.73 falls to roughly 79.63 on pure roster talent.
The duration makes it worse: this is not a one-week depth problem. Tampa has lost its starting defensive signal-caller for the rest of the season.
2. CINCINNATI'S BACKFIELD FALLS OFF A CLIFF FOR WEEK 4
Michael Bennett — Bengals — HB — 75 NOVR — 1 WEEK
Bennett is not an elite back by league standards, but he is extremely important to Cincinnati because the depth behind him is weak.
The normal scored room is Michael Bennett 75 and Nate Ilaoa 59:
75% × 75 + 25% × 59 = 71.00
Without Bennett, Ilaoa becomes HB1 and Dee Brown 48 becomes HB2:
75% × 59 + 25% × 48 = 56.25
HB room: 71.00 → 56.25
Complete-team impact: -1.11
That is the biggest one-week injury effect of the new list. Cincinnati is already one of the league's weaker complete rosters, so there is very little depth available to absorb the hit.
3. ATLANTA LOSES ITS STARTING TIGHT END
Marcedes Lewis — Falcons — TE — 84 NOVR — 1 WEEK
Lewis is a much more important loss than his one-week designation might suggest. He is Atlanta's clear TE1, while John Gilmore is only 58.
Because TE is one of the four equally scored pieces of the receiving corps, the 26-point individual downgrade has a direct effect:
Receiving: 80.25 → 73.75
Complete-team impact: -0.81
For Week 4 specifically, this is a serious offensive loss.
4. SEATTLE'S INJURY LIST KEEPS GROWING
Dawan Landry — Seahawks — SS — 72 NOVR — 1 WEEK
Landry is Seattle's starting strong safety. Brannon Condren 53 is the next option.
Secondary: 86.95 → 83.15
Complete-team impact: -0.57
On its own, that is a meaningful one-week loss. The larger concern is that Seattle is already playing without Koren Robinson 92 from the previous injury report.
If we stack the known Robinson and Landry losses, Seattle's original 81.17 talent score temporarily falls to roughly 79.67 for Week 4.
Ronney Jenkins — HB — 40 NOVR — 2 WEEKS
Jenkins is also out, but he is HB3 behind Shaun Alexander 94 and DJ Ware 66. He does not change the scored HB room, so this is a depth loss rather than a current rating loss.
5. ATLANTA'S SECOND INJURY IS MORE ABOUT DEPTH
Brandon McDonald — Falcons — CB — 73 NOVR — 7 WEEKS
The seven-week timetable looks scary, but the current secondary calculation barely notices it.
Atlanta's top three corners remain:
Ty Law 94 / Derrick Strait 87 / Karl Paymah 82
McDonald is CB4 at 73, so the scored secondary does not change immediately.
That makes this a moderate long-term depth injury rather than a major current talent loss. The danger is what happens if Atlanta suffers another CB injury over the next seven weeks.
6. THE GIANTS HAVE A PERFECTLY RATED REPLACEMENT
Terdell Sands — Giants — DT — 56 NOVR — 2 WEEKS
Sands is part of the Giants' 4-3 interior rotation, but this is one of the easiest injuries on the list to absorb.
Randy Starks 94 is the clear DT1, and Luis Castillo is also rated 56 — exactly the same as Sands.
DT room: 75.00 → 75.00
Complete-team impact: 0.00
The Giants lose depth, but not modeled starting talent.
7. NEW ORLEANS LOSES BACKUP SAFETY DEPTH
Josh Gattis — Saints — FS — 60 NOVR — 1 WEEK
Josh Bullocks 88 remains the starting FS, so Gattis' injury does not change the scored secondary.
Complete-team impact: 0.00
This is a straightforward one-week depth loss.
WEEK 4 NEW-INJURY ADJUSTED SNAPSHOT
Looking only at the new Week 3 injuries, the affected teams move approximately as follows:
Buccaneers — 81.73 → 79.63 (-2.10) — injury-adjusted league #32
Bengals — 80.80 → 79.69 (-1.11) — injury-adjusted league #31
Falcons — 84.50 → 83.69 (-0.81) — injury-adjusted league #21
Seahawks — 81.17 → 80.60 (-0.57) — injury-adjusted league #29
Giants — 85.48 → 85.48 (+0.00) — injury-adjusted league #13
Saints — 84.69 → 84.69 (+0.00) — injury-adjusted league #18
The Buccaneers are the clear disaster case. Morgan's season-ending injury pushes an already low-ranked roster to the very bottom of the talent table.
Cincinnati and Atlanta suffer the largest one-week offensive hits. Seattle takes another meaningful temporary blow on top of its existing Koren Robinson injury.
WEEK 4 IMPORTANCE ORDER
1. Dan Morgan, Buccaneers — CRITICAL — season-ending starting MLB loss
2. Michael Bennett, Bengals — VERY HIGH for Week 4 — weak HB depth magnifies the loss
3. Marcedes Lewis, Falcons — VERY HIGH for Week 4 — 26-point TE downgrade
4. Dawan Landry, Seahawks — HIGH for Week 4 — starting SS plus existing Seattle injuries
5. Brandon McDonald, Falcons — MODERATE — seven-week CB depth loss
6. Terdell Sands, Giants — LOW–MODERATE — equal-NOVR replacement available
7. Josh Gattis, Saints — LOW — backup FS
8. Ronney Jenkins, Seahawks — LOW — HB3 outside the scored room
WHAT IT MEANS FOR WEEK 4
The biggest immediate matchup implication is Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were already one of the lowest-rated complete teams, and they now lose an 89 NOVR starting MLB for the season.
Seattle is the other team worth monitoring closely because the injuries are beginning to stack: Koren Robinson remains out, Dawan Landry misses Week 4, and Ronney Jenkins removes additional HB depth.
Atlanta loses two players at once, although almost all of the immediate modeled damage comes from Marcedes Lewis rather than Brandon McDonald.
NOVR measures the player. Replacement quality determines the injury impact.
Estimated team hits use the same established 2007 PTF unit formulas and 50/50 Complete Team Score.
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